OESD+FD on the Flop

Blade76Blade76 Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
edited January 2015 in Online Poker Hands
PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $10.00 (VPIP: 13.68, PFR: 12.63, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 98)
SB: $10.00 (VPIP: 22.92, PFR: 14.58, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 49)
BB: $10.82 (VPIP: 11.54, PFR: 3.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
Hero (UTG): $24.52
MP: $9.79 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: $6.51 (VPIP: 47.83, PFR: 30.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J:spade: Q:spade:

Hero raises to $0.30, fold, CO calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.05, 3 players) T:spade: T:diamond: K:spade:
Hero bets $0.60, fold, BTN raises to $1.90, Hero calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.85, 2 players) 7:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.25, fold

BTN wins $4.63


So i´m not sure what is the best line here?

Comments

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,267 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think we can mostly rule out KK, KT and TT for Villain, because that range gets reraised preflop and/or slowplayed on the flop. (Obviously this isn't 100% guaranteed.) Against the rest of his range, just shoving the flop can't be too bad.

    One hand you don't want to see is :As :Xs, but even then you have 41% equity. Technically I think the actual worst case reasonable scenario is :Th :9s at 34%. It's impossible to be dominated by :As :Qs. Even against :J? :T? you're 44%. Against :A? :K?/ :K? :Q? you're 49%. You have to have some fold equity against part of his bluff/semi-bluff range, or some hands with :K? in them. Playing this hand street by street seems problematic. It might increase the price you pay when behind, reduce the implied odds, increase the reverse implied odds, and leave you without a clue if you make a pair on the river and wonder if he was just getting aggro with :As :Xs. Maybe one of the pros will have a more sophisticated idea.

    Assume Villain doesn't already have a boat (but if he does don't forget you still have 9% equity for your straight flush draw), and 10% chance he folds to your shove. There is $3.55 in the pot, you have $9.10 left. If you shove and lose, you lose $9.10, and if you win, you win $11.45. Let's assume if we get called we're up against :J? :T? at 44% equity.

    EV = .10*($3.55) + .90*((.44 * $11.45) - (.56 * $9.10)) = almost $0

    Let's assume the following 5 hands for Villain with equal likelihood
    :As :Xs
    :Th :9s
    :J? :T?
    :A? :K?/ :K? :Q?
    :9s :8s

    Against that range we have 51% equity which is +EV to shove. So it comes down to slim margins depending on how likely you think he is to already have a boat, or have a hand like :Th :9s (vs. any old T) or :9s :8s, etc. If you take :Th :9s, :9s :8s and flopped boats out of his range, it's right at 44/45%.

    Bottom line for me - folding isn't terrible, shoving isn't terrible, playing street by street seems murky and mistake prone (although calling the flop raise at almost 3:1 and taking a look at the turn card doesn't seem terrible either).

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