Hand 11: AQ on Q94

NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭
Villain’s button range: AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s 402 combos 32.8%

Villain’s Cv3B range: JJ-22,AQo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AJs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s
145 11.8% (36% of previous raising range)

I don’t think that we have enough of a sample size to get a super accurate picture of Villain’s continuing range here when it comes to using his Cv3B% but we have enough of an idea from his VPIP that he will continue with a lot of hands here. His calling range here may very well be wider than I have listed but even with this range, there will be a lot of boards that he cannot profitably continue on postflop so I believe it is sufficient enough.

Workbook Questions: 4-bets QQ, calls AJ and 88

Flop: :Qs:9s:4h

Down to 125 combos on the flop. When Villain min-raises, I’m not really sure how to interpret it in terms of his range. I don’t see min-raises very often but I know that when I do them, it’s typically with a stronger hand against a weaker opponent because it will sometimes cause them to spaz and if I think that a bigger raise will scare them off, I may take this line. I’m going to assume that we will do this with top pair, sets, flush draws, OESD, and JJ/TT. I have him making this move with 47 out of 125 combos for a 37.6% frequency.

Workbook Questions: He may do this with QQ, FD but I don’t think he does it much with air.

When we shove and he calls, I believe that he will call with top pair, sets, flush draws, and JTs. I think that there could be some discussion that a player with these stats may occasionally call with an underpair such as JJ, “putting us either on AK or a FD/OESD”. I have him calling with 41 out of 125 combos for 87% of his min-betting range.

Workbook Questions: He’ll call with Qx, Spades, and sometimes medium pairs

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,071 -
    How did this exercise feel? I know facing min-raises is awkward and it looks like it created a nice confusion point?
    📑 Grab my custom poker spreadsheet pack right now.
    📘 Start the Preflop & Math Poker Workbook today.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    How did this exercise feel? I know facing min-raises is awkward and it looks like it created a nice confusion point?

    Yeah the min-raise is definitely awkward because I just don't have enough experience against it to thoroughly interpret it. Against a player with Villain's stat line, I imagine he could do this as some sort of bluff to see if I would just fold but I'm definitely not sure one way or another. It's probably more single pair hands than anything else.
  • JoskroketJoskroket Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
    nice min-raise on the flop, i liked this hand. Unless villain is an idiot his minraise is either to build the pot or to induce a shove. Either way i think this is a sign of a strong range and I don't see him having any air in his range. He's giving us way to good odds to call his minraise. My hand reading is perfect in line with Ninjah, so no need to waste space here ;)
  • Simon PSimon P Red Chipper Posts: 1 ✭✭
    I noticed that villain only called 25% of 3-bets, folded 17% which means he 4-bets 42%. This looks like an aggrofish. This made for a pretty strange calling range, since even if I assign 30% stealing range, this only leaves about 7-8% calling range with a lot of strong and weak hands excluded, i.e. a pretty capped range (unless he is playing tricky with some strong hands, but 50/16 doesn't scream tricky LAG to me).

    I was very offput by the min-raise. When the "you're not supposed to do that" reaction had subsided, it left me very confused and unsure about how to act. It looks like a weak move to me, like you're trying to scare off your opponent but don't want to risk too much. Or it could be to induce a shove, but that assumes a certain skill level. Either way, I doubt villain would do it with air, but he might do it with top pair and flush draws, and call a shove with those as well. I did not include middle pair in his min-raise range, but if he has them, I assume he folds.

    This first exercise of section 2 is definitely a switch from the previous session and regular play, where I'm always focused on my own range and actions. But hand reading is an area of improvement for me, so I will work through this chapter, even though I feel like I might as well guess sometimes.
  • Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Simon P wrote: »
    I noticed that villain only called 25% of 3-bets, folded 17% which means he 4-bets 42%. This looks like an aggrofish. This made for a pretty strange calling range, since even if I assign 30% stealing range, this only leaves about 7-8% calling range with a lot of strong and weak hands excluded, i.e. a pretty capped range (unless he is playing tricky with some strong hands, but 50/16 doesn't scream tricky LAG to me).

    With only 176 hands on V idk if we'd have enough 4-bet hands for that to be a very accurate stat. His VPIP/PFR has a massive gap. I would be thinking more calling station/weak passive.

    When I compare my ranges to Ninjah, I had a very similar open of 34.3% for 420 combos.

    My Cv3Bet range has quite a bit wider for V though - again because I view him as somewhat of a calling station.I had 280 combos for 66.6% of his previous range.

    The min-raise didn't throw me that much because I'm assuming I'm playing vs. a fish. Obviously the sizing looks weird as hell but to me, when a weak-passive player shows aggression like that, it means he has something pretty strong. I don't see him doing that with draws too often. A fishy player like this is likely doing it with TP+. I don't think he has overpairs here because I think he would've 4-bet/jammed them. But then again I've definitely seen fish show up with them. I had him at 43 combos for 18.1% of his previous range.

    I think his stats also somewhat support the idea of him being a sticky calling station with the high WTSD as well.

  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
    I think Brenden is pretty close on the fish observation. That min bet could be a "test the waters" play with TP/MP or a "try to get me to fold cheaply cuz I haz a draw" move. Either way I love the "you're not supposed to do that" line by Simon. Sometimes just seeing that get us to shove a decent or once in a while marginal hand against that kind of play. When we get it wrong we take a note and move on. In the real world I sit there and cuss internally for a few minutes and that's never good. I do believe villian is EITHER playing us well or having a spew-fest. No middle ground
  • fatking lfatking l Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭

    Min raise could be " Protecting" middle pair, or trying to buy a cheap Turn card.
    But, with the stack size this leaves just about half pot bet behind.
    So it doeas not make any sense.
    The RvFCB of 12% is not unreasonable high, not IP.

    Overall I do not expect any air, but only sets and draws here, maybe some TP

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file