Hand 15: This hand was tough on my brain!

epokertable.netepokertable.net Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
Small sample size on the UTG that opens. Stats feel a little on the loose passive side. Since he is opening UTG I'm giving him a range that at the top end.

I gave V an opening range of: AA-22,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs
12% / 152 combos
Workbook questions:
Pocket Pair: 22, Broadway: KQo / JTs, Suited conenctors: JT

Flop:
:As :Js :8d
I think with such a wet board the EP raiser isn't going to risk a check through with made hands. I think he will check with most draws except the combo flush straight draws.

Check range:
KK-QQ,TT-99,77-22,KQo,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,[20]AA,JJ,88,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs[/20]
66% / 82 combos
Workbook questions:
AQ: bet, Spades: bet big draws / check smaller draws, 66: check

Turn:
:8c
I think he is betting missed check raise attempts w/ Ax and big pocket pairs under the A. It is a good scare card to bet a spade draw, but I think he is going to check most of those.

Bet range:
KK-QQ,KsQs,[30]KQo,KhQh,KcQc,KdQd[/30],[20]AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs[/20]

Workbook questions:
Ax: Yes, KK: Yes, Spades: only KsQx

We raise he calls:
I think at this point he is calling with just about everything except the pocket pairs under A and get rid of the OESDs that don't have the flush draw to go along with it.
KsQs,[20]AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs[/20]
Workbook questions:
Ax: call, JJ: Raise All In, Spades: fold everything but KsQs, 8x: n/a

River:
:Kc
V check - Allins our value bet.
At this point, I think he is down to Ax's and missed flush draws. When he checks I think he is checking his A hoping to see the showdown cheap. When he moves in I would remove the flush draw as there is no way anyone is folding to 15 more. The check allin feels like he's thinking "If i'm calling I might as well get the rest in w/ my Ax".

Workbook questions:
AA: no - would just lead or get it in on the turn
AQ: yes
Missed flush: no

This hand gave me fits. Is my thinking correct on each street?

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,918 -
    I would assign more hands for the turn stab imo. Other than that, I think you are in the right ballpark.
    My latest poker course brings the popular book 'Poker's 1%' to life- The One Percent
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    This hand has many branches of (could haves) I like your "missed" V's check raise plan. I feel that V should have bet his whole range. Wet as hell flop, made hands need protection/get value and hands w/o SD value might get a fold. After the x,x on flop I think he jams all 2p after our Turn raise and calls with made FH's, and KsQs,9sTs...maybe AQ... the rest is a fold... SPR is 1 now on the riv so after we Value bet 1/2 psb and he jams i believe we're beat but never folding. He has no straights or flushes and only FH's. 9 combos which beat us IF my turn observations are in the ballpark. I would check back the riv all day

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