River - Shove, Bet-fold, Check-fold?

eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
8 handed. Live $1/2. Thursday night 10:00PM. December 22.

I don't recall well the preflop and flop bets but I think I'm close. I'm sitting with 350 and have others covered. I am unfamiliar with the players in the hand. I play here often, so they are new players out for the Christmas holiday.

UTG+1 (250) raise to 7, UTG+2 (260) call, MP (200) call, BB (me) (350) call. Pot is 29.

:Kc:7c:3h

BB check. UTG+1 bets 10. UTG+2 calls. MP calls. I call. Pot is 69.

:6h

BB check. UTG+1 bets 20. UTG+2 calls. MP folds. I raise to 75. UTG+1 folds. UTG+2 asks to see my stack and calls. Pot is 239.

:Qh (UTG+2 has stack of 168). Should I bet 168, bet smaller and fold to a shove, or check fold? If I check is there any bet size I should call?


Comments

  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    Difficult to tell what is going here. Do you have 54? K6? You don't represent too much with the flop call and very small turn raise on this texture. MP has close to direct odds with any flush draw so not sure why he needs to see your stack, maybe because he wants to know how much he may have to call on the river?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Not knowing your cards or the other players at the table, this is a near auto-shove situation for me.

    If V had a huge hand on the turn, I'd expect him to come over the top of your re-raise. If V is hesitating, then I think that you represent the flush well enough. Kx of hearts (with x being a low card) looks reasonable.

    Worst case, if you shove with nothing and V calls, then you've set yourself up for future action.
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    Yosh wrote: »
    ... very small turn raise on this texture. ...

    Thank you for your comment.

    I wasn't sure how much I should raise here. There are two flush draws on the turn, but this board still seems fairly dry to me. The flop would be bone dry if it was :Kc:7s:3h right? And the turn only adds a back door flush draw and some straight draws.

    There was 99 in the pot when I raised. I considered raising between to between 70 and 80. I did not think a raise to 100 would get a call. Raising to 75 is a half pot raise. I think I miscalculated size of the pot when I raised during the hand.

    He has to call 55 to win a pot of 174, meaning he needs 24% equity to call. A flush draw has 18% equity, meaning he needs to make up the rest in implied odds.

    I'm not sure on the math of this one but here goes. Let's assume he has a flush draw. He makes his flush 18% of the time. Let's assume he gets the remaining 168 when he does. Do we say that is 55 to win 174 + 18% * 168 = 204? Is that how we do that math? That gives him 21% (55/(204+55)).

    Fwiw, that's a pure look at it. If I am bluffing ever it shades this toward a call. If he makes his hand, calls it off and loses, that should mean that this is a bad odds call for him, right?
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    Not knowing your cards or the other players at the table, this is a near auto-shove situation for me.

    If V had a huge hand on the turn, I'd expect him to come over the top of your re-raise. If V is hesitating, then I think that you represent the flush well enough. Kx of hearts (with x being a low card) looks reasonable.

    Worst case, if you shove with nothing and V calls, then you've set yourself up for future action.

    Interesting thoughts.

    Villain is an unknown, likely loose cally. He has called 4 bets in this hand. :) Young, mid 30s.


    Is this a shove because V has shown so much weakness, by never raising, and because flushes are scary, so you think he will fold more than 42% of the time and a bluff shove is profitable here? Do you also shove if it's the :Qc ? What about the :Ts ?

    How do you play your value hands here?
  • Renato_LRenato_L Red Chipper Posts: 190
    I'd shove if I'm holding :Ah . Otherwise I'd just check-fold if I don't have any piece of that board. the plan was to take it down on the turn. that didn't work out. hopefully it was with the intent of shoving on river if heart came on river as that is the only semi-bluff on turn that would make sense.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    eugeniusjr wrote:
    There are two flush draws on the turn, but this board still seems fairly dry to me. The flop would be bone dry if it was :Kc:7s:3h right? And the turn only adds a back door flush draw and some straight draws.

    Well, yes and no. To me, it is a volatile texture because 1/2 the deck on the river demotes the current nuts in relative strength. After all, we are debating the effect of the heart river. That said, there's only 1 card to come instead of 2 so equities should be firming up.
    eugeniusjr wrote:
    He has to call 55 to win a pot of 174, meaning he needs 24% equity to call. A flush draw has 18% equity, meaning he needs to make up the rest in implied odds.

    I'm not sure on the math of this one but here goes. Let's assume he has a flush draw. He makes his flush 18% of the time. Let's assume he gets the remaining 168 when he does. Do we say that is 55 to win 174 + 18% * 168 = 204? Is that how we do that math? That gives him 21% (55/(204+55)).

    I think it's easier to go the other way. From his perspective, a flush draw is ~4:1. $55 to call. $55 * 4 = $220. If there's only $184 in the pot he needs to win an additional $36 to break even on a call. Anything above that is gravy.

    Assuming he always gets the remaining $168 in the pot after calling and hitting:

    EV (fold) = 223
    EV (call) = .81(168) + .19(239 + (2*168))
    EV (call) = 136.08 + 109.25
    EV (call) = 245.33
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    eugeniusjr wrote: »
    Not knowing your cards or the other players at the table, this is a near auto-shove situation for me.

    If V had a huge hand on the turn, I'd expect him to come over the top of your re-raise. If V is hesitating, then I think that you represent the flush well enough. Kx of hearts (with x being a low card) looks reasonable.

    Worst case, if you shove with nothing and V calls, then you've set yourself up for future action.

    Interesting thoughts.

    Villain is an unknown, likely loose cally. He has called 4 bets in this hand. :) Young, mid 30s.


    Is this a shove because V has shown so much weakness, by never raising, and because flushes are scary, so you think he will fold more than 42% of the time and a bluff shove is profitable here? Do you also shove if it's the :Qc ? What about the :Ts ?

    How do you play your value hands here?

    Early in a session, I do one of two things. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show for a few orbits (to get the feel of the game) OR play with aggression. Best case: I win some real pots early. Worst case, I lose a buy-in and establish an image that I play off very well. So, early on in a session, I'd almost auto-shove this (as long as I thought that there were any meaningful fold equity). It's only later in the session that I would begin considering my bet sizes relatively to made hands, bluff hands, and value-betting hands.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file