Hand 12: AJ on A53

NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭
We don’t have a large enough sample size to use the 3-bet% for Villain so I will use what I believe to be a fairly standard 3-betting range of JJ+, AK, AQs, and KQs. The calling range I have constructed for Villain looks like: TT-22,AQo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A4s,KJs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s 17.4% 213 combos

With the button showing loose-passive stats over a small sample, I don’t expect him to squeeze much at all. I would estimate that he would 3-bet with a similar range that the button would have but he also has a much wider calling range.

Flop: :Ac:5s:3c

Villain is down to 191 combos after the flop. Although we have a small sample size as previously mentioned, Villain’s stats are a bit skewed towards calling more than raising. The Ac removes a lot of potential FDs that he could fear but I could have a decent amount of FDs still in my range. He completely misses this flop about ⅔ of the time. For now, I have him flatting all of his hands that he is continuing with. Villain is continuing with his sets, two pairs, Ax, and FD as well as 44 and 22 for gutshots. 66 of 191 combos at a 34.6% frequency.

Turn: :Th

Villain is down to 64 combos after the turn. My line so far looks like a c-bet that has given up so I expect Villain to fire with all of his made hands and semi-bluffs. I expect him to check behind with his 44 and 22 gutshots and naked flush draws. He is firing 44 out of 64 combos on the turn for a 68.8% frequency.

Workbook Questions: Bets Ax, checks 44, 99 n/a

River: :Tc

Villain is down to 37 combos after the river. I only expect him to pot the top end of his range here. Full houses, flushes, trips and AQ/AJ that doesn’t expect to split the pot. With me taking a passive approach to the hand on the final two streets, he should not fear the possibility of me coming over the top with a raise. I expect him to check back his weaker Ax hands in this spot. He is potting here with 13 out of 37 combos for a 35.1% frequency.

Workbook Questions: Ax bet AQ/AJ/AT, check other Ax, 88 n/a, bet weak flushes

Comments

  • Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Pretty much agree with everything here. I had CO calling a little tighter mostly because I had him 3-betting more hands IP there. His stats make me think he's probably a semi-competent player. Also surprised he called here with the LAG in the SB who is capable of a squeeze. Makes me think he calls even tighter.

    BU looks very fishy. Not much to say there. Calling somewhat wide

    OTF i don't think he has much of a raising range. Most of his FD's should be medium strength given he called preflop. I didn't have him calling with 55 or 33 preflop due to the possibility of a squeeze. His range contracts considerably here since he's calling my C bet in a multi-way pot even though his stats tell me he never folds to C bets. That's just not sustainable tho

    He could float the turn somewhat wide but I think he's still value heavy or FD heavy.

    With the way this hand played out I have V heavily weighted towards flushes and better OTR. I think he's checking back Ax
  • fatking lfatking l Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    I agree with the lines above as well, although my range is even tighter, only 108 hands (8.8%) preflop.

    On the river I do not see villain betting his FD pot size. The board is paired and he loves SDs, therefore with my ranges he actuall has only TT here.

    As a final note, in my experience TP medium kicker is rarely good 3 streets of betting. So, if we run out of time, we might take this into account as well

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