$1/2 Tough Spot w/ KK

NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
I was discussing this hand with a couple of friends who are very smart people (but unstudied players) and I told them I would post this hand I played on here to get opinions because they both disagree with my play. One of them is a nit and said he folds the turn while the other one is a LAG and even he said my play on the turn was too aggressive. I wanted to post the hand to see if you agree/disagree with my play and whether or not my ranges/calculations all make sense because if they do, this is a VERY narrow spot.

The only significant history I have with Villain is the following: 7 total people limp in including Villain, I look down at 3d4d in the SB and complete. BB checks. Flop comes down Jh3c4c, checks around to Villain who bets $10 and I raise to $25, everyone else folds. Turn brings the 3h, I check and he ships his remaining $70ish, I call and my full house holds vs. Jx. I bring up this hand because I feel it's relevant to the hand below since we know he'll stack off with top pair (although we are much deeper in the actual hand).

On to the hand. Villain has about $320, I cover. It folds around to Villain on the button who raises to $12. I look down at :Ks:Kc and raise to $40. Villain calls.

Flop comes :Qd:3h:2c (Pot $80). Very dry flop so I elect to bet on the smaller side with a $40 bet. Villain calls without much thought.

Turn: :JD: (Pot $160). I elect to check here to give him a chance to stab at it and he bets $100. If I call here, it means that I have put $180 in the pot with only $140 left behind and most river cards are not going to impact who wins the hand so I think calling is the worst of the three options. I think folding is way too tight so I elect to go ahead and put him all in.

So here are the questions and analysis and I would appreciate thoughts on my turn decision as well as whether or not you agree with the info I have below. I don't have a ton of info on Villain but I think it's fair to say that half the time he 4-bets AA and half the time. I also have him calling with AQ half the time preflop and folding it half the time, so I weighted his range on the turn as follows:

0ni94t40c2db.png

It is important to note that I included JJ in there as I think it's possible that he peels the dry flop to see if I give up on the turn.

Now on to my calculation. I don't believe that I have any fold equity here so when I shove I expect Villain to call 100% of the time with the range above.

So using (risk)/(risk+reward), I am also placing the rest of Villain's stack in the reward category since I expect him to call. So I am risking $240 on my shove and there is $260 in the pot after his bet and he has $140 behind, so a total reward of $400. ($240/$240+$400) = 37.5% equity needed to break even.

So with the range I assigned, I have 38.9% equity and based on the pot, I need 37.5% equity. If everything is correct, this is a super narrow spot.

So my questions are:

1) Do you agree with my decision to shove the turn?
2) Is my range assigned to Villain reasonable?
3) Does my equity calculation make sense if I expect him to call 100% of the time based on the range I assigned?
«1

Comments

  • emkayemkay Red Chipper Posts: 32
    I think Villains range is wider, if he stacked off with Jx in the previous hand you mentionned, you have to assume he gets to the turn with alot of marginal hands some of which picked up a FD on the turn... I also think he doesnt have AA very often here.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
    emkay wrote: »
    I think Villains range is wider, if he stacked off with Jx in the previous hand you mentionned, you have to assume he gets to the turn with alot of marginal hands some of which picked up a FD on the turn... I also think he doesnt have AA very often here.

    I agree that I don't think he has AA much which is why I only gave him half of the combos but I don't see many FDs that he can have that don't fold to a 3-bet pre then continue on such a dry flop....AdKd is maybe possible but it's only 1 combo.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,200 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    played like a champ

    Are you stating that it is fine as played and that the assigned range makes sense that he would get to turn and call my shove?
  • emkayemkay Red Chipper Posts: 32
    Ninjah wrote: »
    emkay wrote: »
    I think Villains range is wider, if he stacked off with Jx in the previous hand you mentionned, you have to assume he gets to the turn with alot of marginal hands some of which picked up a FD on the turn... I also think he doesnt have AA very often here.

    I agree that I don't think he has AA much which is why I only gave him half of the combos but I don't see many FDs that he can have that don't fold to a 3-bet pre then continue on such a dry flop....AdKd is maybe possible but it's only 1 combo.

    Although its certainly read specific, your perceived range here isnt very strong IMO, your defending your blinds, and he'll continue with alot of stuff.

    Its a dry board for sure, but again, by making a half pot bet, you allow him to float at a higher frequency.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,200 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    persuadeo wrote: »
    played like a champ

    Are you stating that it is fine as played and that the assigned range makes sense that he would get to turn and call my shove?

    I am saying I agree enough with you and like your plan against this player and this board.

    I would say that Emkay is correct in villain having a wider range, that you may not be called 100% of the time, but that it's valuable to shut out your opponent or force him into an error if he feels priced in on the turn.

    You are rarely folding vs. the button, so the question is how do you want to felt yourself and you found a reasonable path to do this, one which created the maximum number of errors from parts of his range.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    don't like the turn check/shove.
    the range that bets will often be different than the range that calls a shove.
    (although you may be including a tilt factor that may have him calling off lighter)
    I don't see why we need to be fancy.
    Why aren't we betting the turn?

    in most cases, V is bet/folding because we tried to get 2 streets of value on the turn... whereas in a lot of cases, we might have gotten 3 streets of value from a dominated hand. This is Way Ahead/Way Behind scenario... "champs" don't put themselves in these sort of situations.

    range:
    your range on V seems very top heavy.
    is his $12 preflop raise/3-bet call really that strong?
    I'd think he can have a lot of suited aces like :AD::4D: or :AD::5D: that flopped well and improves on turn. He could also have a lot of suited broadways like :KH::QH: , :QC::JC: and :AS::QS: that he would continue with. I'd think he'd raise/call pre with all pocket pairs... so QQ, 33 & 22 should be in his range. I'd reduce the number of JJ combos because I think he folds those often. Of course KK and AA are possibilities as well - but also less likely.
    I think weighting him with ½ of ALL AQ combos is optimistic.
    I think you can expect AQs to bet/call pre - but not AQos.

    Ultimately - I don't like your check/shove turn play because typically you're folding out nearly everything that beats you!
    So his bet-calling range will be nutted to include all sets, all overpair and maybe 3 combos of AQs.

    That's 3 combos of QQ, 3 combos of JJ, 3 combos of 22, 3 combos of 33, 3 combos of QJs, 6 combos of AA = 21 combos that have us smoked
    1 combo of KK = that we tie
    3 combos of AQ = that we beat

    This is an easy bet/fold turn if V is never betting anything worse than what we're representing.


    BTW - with the range I've assigned him - we've got like 18% equity. Not an idea scenario.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,200 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you are indeed up against that range you should x/f, not b/f.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    don't like the turn check/shove.
    the range that bets will often be different than the range that calls a shove.
    (although you may be including a tilt factor that may have him calling off lighter)
    I don't see why we need to be fancy.
    Why aren't we betting the turn?

    in most cases, V is bet/folding because we tried to get 2 streets of value on the turn... whereas in a lot of cases, we might have gotten 3 streets of value from a dominated hand. This is Way Ahead/Way Behind scenario... "champs" don't put themselves in these sort of situations.

    range:
    your range on V seems very top heavy.
    is his $12 preflop raise/3-bet call really that strong?
    I'd think he can have a lot of suited aces like :AD::4D: or :AD::5D: that flopped well and improves on turn. He could also have a lot of suited broadways like :KH::QH: , :QC::JC: and :AS::QS: that he would continue with. I'd think he'd raise/call pre with all pocket pairs... so QQ, 33 & 22 should be in his range. I'd reduce the number of JJ combos because I think he folds those often. Of course KK and AA are possibilities as well - but also less likely.
    I think weighting him with ½ of ALL AQ combos is optimistic.
    I think you can expect AQs to bet/call pre - but not AQos.

    Ultimately - I don't like your check/shove turn play because typically you're folding out nearly everything that beats you!
    So his bet-calling range will be nutted to include all sets, all overpair and maybe 3 combos of AQs.

    That's 3 combos of QQ, 3 combos of JJ, 3 combos of 22, 3 combos of 33, 3 combos of QJs, 6 combos of AA = 21 combos that have us smoked
    1 combo of KK = that we tie
    3 combos of AQ = that we beat

    This is an easy bet/fold turn if V is never betting anything worse than what we're representing.


    BTW - with the range I've assigned him - we've got like 18% equity. Not an idea scenario.

    I don't think he calls a 3-bet that wide. He was a pretty straightforward player and didn't show down any junk that I saw during the 3 hours or so that I played with him.
  • emkayemkay Red Chipper Posts: 32
    I think we are giving way to much credit to villain... V previously called a J high 2 tone limped flop c/r, then shipped a turn that paired the board and added another FD... With a pair of jacks with a weak kicker(i assume as it wasnt specified)... Why are we assuming villain is so strong?
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    Interesting hand and v tough spot.

    I think you need to ask what hand this player bets $100 on the turn with - because Ed Millers skill #2 may be applicable (don't pay people off).

    I'm guessing this is 1/2. As you mention - In the limped pot example he is willing to stack off with top pair for ~50BB - this does not necessarily mean he will do the same for 160BB. It's a 2 SPR on the flop - so I can be onboard with just being in default stack-off mode on the turn. However... I've been in several of these almost exact situations recently (also 3-bet pots) - and this $100 turn bet is never a bluff and is never even done with TPTK (in the nitty games that I play)... it's a value bet with 2 pair+. I played around with equilab a bit and I think you're kind of praying that he has AQ here, because removing that you're a massive equity dog against a range that he called your 3-bet with and then stacks off with on the turn.


  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
    emkay wrote: »
    I think we are giving way to much credit to villain... V previously called a J high 2 tone limped flop c/r, then shipped a turn that paired the board and added another FD... With a pair of jacks with a weak kicker(i assume as it wasnt specified)... Why are we assuming villain is so strong?

    That was a limped pot. This hand he opened and called a 3-bet. He should show up with a much stronger range here.
  • emkayemkay Red Chipper Posts: 32
    Ninjah wrote: »
    emkay wrote: »
    I think we are giving way to much credit to villain... V previously called a J high 2 tone limped flop c/r, then shipped a turn that paired the board and added another FD... With a pair of jacks with a weak kicker(i assume as it wasnt specified)... Why are we assuming villain is so strong?

    That was a limped pot. This hand he opened and called a 3-bet. He should show up with a much stronger range here.

    Relatively speaking, he did call a flop chek raise with a marginal hand, what makes you think he would change the way he values hands in a steal/re-steal situation?
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
    emkay wrote: »
    Ninjah wrote: »
    emkay wrote: »
    I think we are giving way to much credit to villain... V previously called a J high 2 tone limped flop c/r, then shipped a turn that paired the board and added another FD... With a pair of jacks with a weak kicker(i assume as it wasnt specified)... Why are we assuming villain is so strong?

    That was a limped pot. This hand he opened and called a 3-bet. He should show up with a much stronger range here.

    Relatively speaking, he did call a flop chek raise with a marginal hand, what makes you think he would change the way he values hands in a steal/re-steal situation?

    Unstudied $1/2 players don't really think much about stealing the blinds, much less thinking that I'm restealing. His raise is skewed much more towards a stronger hand than it is an attempt to steal.
  • Marc-KevinMarc-Kevin Red Chipper Posts: 27
    edited December 2016
    Ninjah wrote: »
    emkay wrote: »
    Ninjah wrote: »
    emkay wrote: »
    I think we are giving way to much credit to villain... V previously called a J high 2 tone limped flop c/r, then shipped a turn that paired the board and added another FD... With a pair of jacks with a weak kicker(i assume as it wasnt specified)... Why are we assuming villain is so strong?

    That was a limped pot. This hand he opened and called a 3-bet. He should show up with a much stronger range here.

    Relatively speaking, he did call a flop chek raise with a marginal hand, what makes you think he would change the way he values hands in a steal/re-steal situation?

    Unstudied $1/2 players don't really think much about stealing the blinds, much less thinking that I'm restealing. His raise is skewed much more towards a stronger hand than it is an attempt to steal.
    I have to remind myself why I am here, which is to learn how to play live poker. Its going to be very helpful for me to discuss hands like this why you guys, mainly because ranges seem to vary alot between online regs and live regs.

    I hope you dont take my arguments and questions negatively, Im here to learn and maybe have some good insight myself from time to time!

    emkay


  • Renato_LRenato_L Red Chipper Posts: 190
    Ninjah wrote: »

    Turn: :JD: (Pot $160). I elect to check here to give him a chance to stab at it and he bets $100.

    So your plan went accordingly, right? Did you already know what you were going to do if he did take a stab? Check - call? Check - raise?

    I personally like the check - raise, it gets all the money in the pot. But since you're posting this hand history, I'm assuming your KK were no good. Up to the turn it looks like a decent run out for KK, so getting felted isn't horrible.



  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
    Marc-Kevin wrote: »
    Ninjah wrote: »
    emkay wrote: »
    Ninjah wrote: »
    emkay wrote: »
    I think we are giving way to much credit to villain... V previously called a J high 2 tone limped flop c/r, then shipped a turn that paired the board and added another FD... With a pair of jacks with a weak kicker(i assume as it wasnt specified)... Why are we assuming villain is so strong?

    That was a limped pot. This hand he opened and called a 3-bet. He should show up with a much stronger range here.

    Relatively speaking, he did call a flop chek raise with a marginal hand, what makes you think he would change the way he values hands in a steal/re-steal situation?

    Unstudied $1/2 players don't really think much about stealing the blinds, much less thinking that I'm restealing. His raise is skewed much more towards a stronger hand than it is an attempt to steal.
    I have to remind myself why I am here, which is to learn how to play live poker. Its going to be very helpful for me to discuss hands like this why you guys, mainly because ranges seem to vary alot between online regs and live regs.

    I hope you dont take my arguments and questions negatively, Im here to learn and maybe have some good insight myself from time to time!

    emkay


    I don't take it negatively at all and I'm learning to so I don't imagine that advice I give is correct very often haha
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,138 ✭✭✭✭
    Renato_L wrote: »
    Ninjah wrote: »

    Turn: :JD: (Pot $160). I elect to check here to give him a chance to stab at it and he bets $100.

    So your plan went accordingly, right? Did you already know what you were going to do if he did take a stab? Check - call? Check - raise?

    I personally like the check - raise, it gets all the money in the pot. But since you're posting this hand history, I'm assuming your KK were no good. Up to the turn it looks like a decent run out for KK, so getting felted isn't horrible.



    He ended up showing QQ and winning with a set. I wanted to get the opinion of others due to the discussion that my friends and I had on this hand because they felt like I should have dumped it but as you saw with the range I put him on, it's a really close call.
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    I don't mind the play. I'm confused with why you gave up the betting lead on the turn. It opened the door for him to put you in a "difficult" spot.

    I'd rather fire a $100 bet on the turn. How he responds to this bet should give you a good idea where you stand.

    As played, he has put you in a tough spot. A $100 bet (of his remaining $260) should tell you exactly where you are in the hand.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Two notes. First, I agree entirely with your needing to lead out again on the turn. You still might get it all in on the river if he flat calls, but so be it. Your decisions become much easier if check-shoves, and you maintain range advantage if he check-calls rather than by the line you took.

    More importantly, I think that your error was not in this hand but rather in making too big a determination of V based on the first hand that you described. Yes, he stacked off with top pair. But, that's not important. What is important is HOW he got the money in and WHY he got the money in. He didn't call an overbet on the river; he made an aggressive play. Moreover, he reasonably could have thought that he had range advantage. Maybe his kicker was better than yours. Maybe you took a stab at the pot on the flop. Maybe you semi-bluffed a flush draw and then slowed down when it missed on the turn.

    Bottom line: I don't think that you have enough data points on V to begin to understand WHY he does what he does. Thus, when he raises you in your posted hand after the turn, you responded based on an inclusive determination that you made about his play style.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The difference between the previous hand with villain and this hand is that in the earlier hand he put you on a flush draw and that's why he stuck his money in. In this hand, he puts you on AA/KK/JJ, and still wants to get it in. So you're behind more often here.

    I agree it's really close in terms of the play and honestly, as Ed Miller has pointed out, we like to spend by far the most time analyzing the hands where it makes little difference what we do (because it's so close). In the grand scheme of things I think this is basically a toss up, so you were fine.
  • ChibberChibber Red Chipper Posts: 378 ✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    Ninjah wrote: »


    So my questions are:

    1) Do you agree with my decision to shove the turn?
    2) Is my range assigned to Villain reasonable?
    3) Does my equity calculation make sense if I expect him to call 100% of the time based on the range I assigned?

    Couple of thoughts in response to your questions:

    I do not like your decision to shove the turn. Why? Because you eliminate about 50% of the hands that can call your check raise and which leaves you only with the hands that beat you. Nothing in your description of the villain indicates that he is an aggro bluffer or an auto bettor when you appear to be giving up. Only that he may be reluctant to give up his top pair type hands. I think the example you cited is not all that relative to this situation as it is a 3 bet pot vs a limped pot (BTW, completing 34s in the SB is a debatable decision).

    I think your range assumptions for this player is skewed. Villain opens $12 and calls a sizable 3 bet to $40. Theoretically, your range should be fairly strong yet the villain calls ( yes, this is $1/2 and anything is possible). Hero holds KK, leaving one combo. We can assume V 4bets both AA and KK, so we can reduce, if not eliminate, all of those 7 combos. That leaves a basic range of QQ - 22, Broadway combos, bigger suited Ax (AT - AK), and maybe hands like T9s.

    When you bet the flop, what is he calling you with? QQ, 33, 22, Qx, <JJ - you might argue he would raise 33 and 22. However, when you check the turn, what would you expect him to bet with? I would not expect him to fire any PP between TT - 44. He will want to go to showdown. I would expect him to bet his sets (12) and strong Qx - AQ (12), KQ (8) {which you block}, and QJ (9).

    So if he is only betting his strongest hands, and 50% of those hands have you drawing slim, why check raise?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Chibber wrote: »
    (BTW, completing 34s in the SB is a debatable decision).

    Getting 17:1 and putting in 1/2% of your stack and you'd fold this? What has this forum come to when I'm the aggro one? lol

    When on the fence, give action.
  • ChibberChibber Red Chipper Posts: 378 ✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Chibber wrote: »
    (BTW, completing 34s in the SB is a debatable decision).

    Getting 17:1 and putting in 1/2% of your stack and you'd fold this? What has this forum come to when I'm the aggro one? lol

    When on the fence, give action.

    OOP in the sb with a weak hand that doesn't flop well in a multiway pot... hmmm. long term, not a good play. Just my opinion. Your mileage may vary.
  • ChibberChibber Red Chipper Posts: 378 ✭✭✭
    Ninjah you may disagree with my assessment and that is fine, but I certainly hope you don't view this hand as a cooler... I think you overplayed your hand.
  • Renato_LRenato_L Red Chipper Posts: 190
    Ninjah, I'm really glad you posted this hand. I think we can all relate to this situation because it's a situation we've all faced. I know that this type of spot is a leak for me, so I think I can really learn something from this.

    I've jotted some thoughts on this situation and I'd appreciate some feedback, edits, adds, deletes, etc. from other board participants. Hopefully in addition to helping me, this can be used by others.

    Topic: Overpairs - Factors To Consider For Deviations from GTO or How To Make Exploitative Folds

    in no particular order:

    1. Deep Stack (> 200 bb); Shallow Stack (< 100 bb); something inbetween. I think everyone can agree if we were talking about a situation in which both players were short stacked there wouldn't be much discussion. If we're talking about a situation where we're 300 BBs deep, I think everyone can agree to get it all in with KK could be suicidal.
    2. SPR on the flop, i.e. less than 2 or greater than 2
    3. Positioning i.e., villain's position in this hand was on the button which factors into our assumptions about his hand range. also our position might reveal the strength of our hand range as well.
    4. Lines taken preflop. Again goes to hand strength and range. I know in hindsight this was a crucial factor that I missed with this example. the fact that villain called our fairly large three bet should have been a clue as to his hand strenght/range
    5. Line taken on the flop. Goes to hand strength and range.
    6. Lines taken on the turn (if applicable). Goes to hand strength and range.
    7. Lines taken on the river (if applicable). Goes to hand strength and range.
    8. Board run out. Goes to range advantage /disadvantage. I know I relied mostly on this factor, i.e. the board run seemed so good for our hand that I was willing to ship it in.
    9. Pot equity/pot odds. A corollary to this is bet sizing preflop, on the flop, turn, river, etc. depending on how the bets went in, even if we have an inkling we're behind, sometimes the math dictates we pretty much have to call.
    10. Meta/history with villain(s). I know this was a factor on this hand. Goes to hand strenght/range. As seen however, this can lead to bias.
    11. Physical tells. something to consider with experience.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,657 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2016
    The first thing that jump into my face is how tight is the assigned range for V on Turn.

    If we can include more bluffs into V range and more Jx (AJ come to mind) than i think i like the x Turn. Reason being that we give him the chance to bet his bluffing range/float and worst hand. I think the chances for V to make error with his entire range is greater if we X than if we bet. I also think that the size of his bet isn't for value in the sense that he don't want you to call, so his holdings may not want to see a river card coupling that with the fact that you aren't representing much strength on that particular Turn when you x.

    Based on the stack off threshold that we got previously on V and being the only reliable infos we got here and think I would feel pretty confident to x/shove te Turn but with a wider range assigned for V.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Chibber wrote: »
    OOP in the sb with a weak hand that doesn't flop well in a multiway pot... hmmm. long term, not a good play. Just my opinion. Your mileage may vary.

    It would be interesting to form a range for this situation - not necessarily as something to present to the other players at the table, because everyone else at the table will fall into the trap of calling with literally any two. In fact, when you fold here, in most games you're going to get some strange looks, and people saying "I want to see that hand!"

    OK, so let's start with this. What percentage of hands would you play in this spot?

    - you're already in for half
    - getting 17:1
    - only costs .5% of your stack
    - OOP

    I don't necessarily agree that it's a "weak hand" or that it doesn't flop well in a multiway pot, because those are things we need to talk more about. So what percentage of hands do you play here?

  • sumoswimsumoswim Red Chipper Posts: 148 ✭✭
    1) Do you agree with my decision to shove the turn?

    It make sens since you assume be ahead when you shove but it doesn't make sens if you assume that no cards will favor his range on the river and shove.

    Why do you bet here for value? with the intention to charge his draws?


    2) Is my range assigned to Villain reasonable?

    i think he has mostly a lot of TP type hands and some draws, so your range is very pessimistic imo.
    You have 62% equity imo.


    3) Does my equity calculation make sense if I expect him to call 100% of the time based on the range I assigned?

    With your assumption i think it's ok, but i not agree with your range at the first place.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    Personally I don't like the checkraise line, because I likely have V dominated and don't want him to fold. I want to take his stack. On the turn he has $240 back and pot is $160. If accept I am never folding then another half pot bet, or even slightly less $60, works perfect. Draws have wrong price to call and his value hands will call. This gives a pot of $320-280 and he only has $160--180 left. He will likely call a river shove even when he thinks he is beat at this ratio. And then... chip runner

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