Best play for this run-out?

jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
edited January 2017 in Live Poker Hands
$1-2 hero with about $240
3 limpers hero with :AS::KD: on the button makes it $18. blinds fold 1 callers, V covers has been pretty weak passive limping calling a lot of hands.


Pot $54.


Flop :Ad:9D::6h . Checks to me I bet $20, fold, V calls.


Pot $ 94
Turn :2s . At this point I think he has a middling Ace, maybe AJ or 10, or a flush draw. He checks. I bet $35, wanting to get value out of a weaker ace, he looks visibility uncomfortable thinks for a bit and calls.


River is :3D: . He checks a final time. What is the best play here? I block the nut flush. I think he might have bet out with a flush, so I went for thin value here with another $35. If you get min raised here, do you smash it over the top repping the Kd? Do you just try to smash the river here knowing you block the K flush? I think this bet allows weaker aces to calls, and obvious low flushes will call and you will lose, but I think if you hit the river for $65-85 he still calls with his Q-Jd flushes and maybe some weak ones too, but if you bet small, he re-raises, and you go all-in maybe you can get a fold there. There's always check too and take a show-down.

Comments

  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 667 ✭✭✭
    I understand that you hold the :Kd but what combos of :Kd:Xd are you taking this line with? I would wager not many. I think it's hard for you to rep a flush here despite having the nut blocker.

    Your small bets may have been designed to get calls from weaker Aces but they also give good prices to all his draws. And now you don't know where you stand. At this point I may just check back. (I only read through this once so I could be convinced that a bet on the river is good too.)
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    I agree the sizing is small. In my games weaker aces and flush will call bigger bets. I think small on flop and pot on turn still accomplishes what you want and you can charge maximum for flushes. On the river V probably thinking you will bet so if he checks flush he s just calling. I also dont think Vs at 1/2 are folding any flush. They dont think the way we think they say I have a flush if you have a bigger one then I run bad crying call.
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    You have a showdown hand. So knuckle the table and see who wins $165.

    Your not going to get a fold if he has 2 pair plus. Especially a flush. You never considered him having A9?

    Any value bet is going to be $80-$120 at this point. I feel like a weak passive player is only going to call a hand that beats your top top.

    Unless you have an accuarate read on this guy and know he'll call with AJ, AT or AQ, the safe thing to do is to showdown.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,657 ✭✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Pot $ 94
    Turn :2s . At this point I think he has a middling Ace, maybe AJ or 10, or a flush draw. He checks. I bet $35, wanting to get value out of a weaker ace, he looks visibility uncomfortable thinks for a bit and calls.
    If you bet 45$ here do you think he still call with weaker ace ? Than 55$? Than 65$

    I think i would have bet more on Turn for value.

    When V x River i dont see him having the flush very often.
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    I disagree that a weak passive player isn't calling another bet. That's kind of their main thing, right?

    I'm discounting a flush because you said he looked pained on the turn. People chasing flushes don't look pained - they simply call because they have a draw. And two-pair is raising the turn.

    I see no reason to believe we're still not ahead. A value bet is in order.
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    I agree with @Adam Wheeler bet bigger turn here. I think a weaker ace would still call around $50 $55 . Plus it would force more folds of most of his flush combos. I think he's raising only trips. He's folding his gutshots that aren't still on a diamond draw. (So he is keeping :Td:8d ) I think he's calling with his 8-7 combos as well. The point I'm trying to make is, if u made it bigger on the turn you will have a much better idea of where ur at on the river.
    Given the line you took. You have good SD value. And if u try to value bet I think he's only calling with hands that beat you. He has a pretty wide range here. He was calling the turn with the same range he's calling the flop with. So all those flush combos. Straight draws. And Ax hands he's bringing to the river.
    So if you bet river. Doesn't really matter what size. He is folding the straight draws obviously. I think the only Ax hand he's calling with is AQ and AJ. And he's calling with ALL of his flush combos. But he's probably not checking river with a flush anyways. Although I think some percentage he might check call with a smaller flush being the passive player that he is. ie: :6d:5D: .
    I would check.
  • sumoswimsumoswim Red Chipper Posts: 148 ✭✭
    go for thin value!There are no monster under the bed.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    agree with others - your bet-sizings are way too small.

    consider this:
    What if V had AQ and is never folding?
    Wouldn't you have preferred betting ⅔ pot on each street?

    Also...
    by betting bigger on the flop, you've now got a bigger pot which gives you the perfect excuse to bet bigger on the turn.
    Don't you want to make money with your premium hands?

    Last but not least...
    if you were ever to bluff here... Holy Baby Bets Batman!... are you ever getting folds?
    If you're betting small because your opponents are folding the majority of their hands - then blast away! Pick up that free money and repeat.
    Why do we have to have a hand if Vs are folding everything but the nuts?

    As played - you gave V the PERFECT odds to call with a flush draw.
    Now on the river, where are we at?
    Sorry, I dunno....
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,200 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Do you just try to smash the river here knowing you block the K flush?

    That should always be on the table with the nut blocker but is there room for it to work and is your opponent representing a hand that will fold?

  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    My sizing was so that a weaker Ace can call. I don't see V limping AQ. Most likely AJ and below. I don't think he has 2 pair by the turn because he'd have raised to the scary diamonds. So yes, the turn bet was probably a mistake. I could have gone for 50-65. But V at $1-2 often won't keep floating a weaker ace OOP. They may call a small flop, but by the turn they think "I better get rid of this ace, it can't be good". I'm specifically targeting the weak aces here, and if he has a flush draw then I guess well I should knuckle the river. So I'm caught between A. going for thin value against a weak ace or B. If I've used this small sizing to try to get value from an weak ace and the flush comes in, I should just check. However, I think it's hard to target both hands on all the streets for value while denying equity. It's like your one example @Kagey where V smashed the pot with a set of 10's. HA check it out I denied equity and won the pot. Now given i don't have a set here, but I'm super far ahead currently on the flop and turn of my of my opponents holdings.

    It's hard to just change gears on the river and tell the story of "well I bet small to get value from you ace, bet small to get value from your ace, never mind I think you checked the small flush to me let me HAMMER the pot to try to get you to fold your weak flushes to protect myself, as well as now all your small aces, which now I lose value from. I remember one of Soto's videos where he is like so we bet big and they fold, so what great we scoop a pot. But where do you draw the line behind I need to extract more chips going for thin value, and oh no he's gotta have a flush draw here. I feel like that's back to seeing monsters under the bed? Whats more likely, an ace or a flush draw here?
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    A weaker ace was calling the turn anyways. Don't expect a player $1/2 to be disciplined enough to fold top pair to 1/2 pot or 2/3 pot bet on the turn. Its not gonna happen. The bigger bet is to get value from those weaker aces and to take out most flush combos. So when a diamond does come on the river you are not stuck in a corner like so on what to do. I believe he does have a weaker ace since he checked the river. Since that's the case. What's the max u can extract from V on the river given the line you took? You are right. You are definitely ahead on the flop and turn. So build that pot to get dat cash money $$.

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