Fighting on the paired board

eisen009eisen009 Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
Inspired by Splitsuit's video on paired boards...welcome thoughts and comments on my analysis:
Merge - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 100 BB
CO: 40.96 BB (VPIP: 29.51, PFR: 16.39, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 61)
BTN: 206.38 BB (VPIP: 34.62, PFR: 14.42, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 109)
Hero (SB): 106.02 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ac 3c
fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, BTN calls 5 BB

Flop : (15 BB, 2 players) 8s 8d Ks
Hero bets 10 BB, BTN raises to 20 BB, Hero raises to 47.5 BB, fold

Hero wins 51.96 BB

The reasons I tried this aggressive play besides the fact that I thought it was sort of fun since it was similar to the hand we discussed at the last webinar were:
Villian’s PFR from the button was 46% and FT3B was 67%. This is a small sample size (109 hands) but indicates that he is generally opening wide and folding a lot to a preflop 3 bet. So at least makes the play more likely to work.

Preflop I am risking $3 to win $4.75 so need 63% folds to immediately profit (actually have that if his FT3B is correct). If we believe his Button PFR and FT3B (his FT3B specifically from the button was 67% but only had 3 hands for that), then he opens 46% and is call 3B range should be about 15%. Here is one possible 15% call 3B range: JJ-22,AQo-ATo,KQo-KJo,AQs-A9s,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s

On the flop, the pot is $7.50. Remaining effective stack (me) is $49.51. SPR=6.6
I cbet $5 and villain min raises to $10. How does this flop hit villain?

Monsters (trips+) is only 3% of his range. His made hands (TP or better) are 20% of his range. If we believe he 4 bets all AK (debatable but he does appear to be aggressive and so am I) then he never has TPTK here. If we believe he makes this min raise with his 8+ out draws and also backdoor draws for bluffs, he is making this min raise with 38% of hands so half of his range is unmade hands. But would he really min raise his strongest hands here? If he just calls my flop bet, the pot would be $17.50 on the turn with $44.51 behind. If I bet again and he calls (say I bet $12), the pot would be $41.50 on the river with $32.51 behind which is the perfect amount for a river shove by either player. So there really isn’t a need to bloat the flop to get stacks in. So it makes more sense to do this with his draws hoping to get a cheap flop fold from me or to get to take a free turn card if his draw doesn’t hit. So now my flop 3 bet looks super strong and appears that I’m never folding. Having already put in $5, my 3 bet to $23.75 is risking $18.75 to win $41.25. I need it to work 45% of the time to profit. This 3 bet makes it hard for him to call even with a K since I’m uncapped and can have AK and AA. He only has trips or better 3% of the time. So I think that this is likely a profitable move. I think one problem is choosing to make the move in part using stats with only a very small hand sample and I think that a very good thinking player might choose to get sticky at least with a king using the same thought process because if I was super strong, why not just call his raise and check to him on the flop, hoping to let him hand himself.

Thoughts?

Lara

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