Hero Calls

uncleB118rusuncleB118rus Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
Hey Guys! I,m new on a forum and that's my first discussion)) Looking forward to see some Hands with Hero calls from you guys as well. I think it would be interesting to discuss. Anyway, I found that hand confusing, any thoughts will be much apreciated. So, here is the hand:
NL $2
SB: Seat 1 ($2)
BB: Seat 2 ($2)
UTG: Seat 3 ($2)
EP2: Hero ($2,03)
EP3: Seat 5 ($2)
MP1: Seat 6 ($2)
MP2: Seat 7 ($2)
CO: Seat 8 ($2)
Main Villain: BTN ($0,65)
SB posts the small blind of $0,01
BB posts the big blind of $0,02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Jh Js]
Seat 3 folds
Hero raises to $0,06
Seat 5 folds
Seat 6 folds
Seat 7 folds
Seat 8 folds
BTN calls $0,06
Seat 1 folds
Seat 2 folds
*** FLOP *** [8c Ts 5s] Pot: 0,15
Hero bets $0,11
BTN calls $0,11
*** TURN *** [8c Ts 5s] [Tc] Pot: 0,37
Hero checks
BTN bets $0,14
Hero calls $0,14
*** RIVER *** [8c Ts 5s Tc] [Qc] Pot: 0,65
Hero checks
BTN bets $0,34 (all-inn)
Hero calls $0,34
Hero shows [Jh Js]
BTN shows [7d 7s]
Hero wins the pot ($1,33)


adittional info about the hand:
This is micros NL $2

Villain stats: VPIP/PFR - 29/0 - over 7 hands
Postflop Agression Factor - 2,0
WTSD (When saw flop) - 100% (2 samples) - and 0% won at SD
So the villain seemed fishy to me, cuz of VPIP/PFR gap, and also that he plays with not a full stack, so from the beginning of a hand I assumed that I play vs a fish.
FLOP
on the flop I bet for value, cuz I think that he will continue wide + he has a BTN which adds him extra fight% as well
TURN
Another T, which takes out some of Top pairs from his range, so I check to induce - he bets, I obviously call
RIVER
On a river Qc comes obviously a bad card for me - cuz if he continues with all overcards on flop and then bluffs me on a turn - Q hits a fair chunck of his range + it closes BDFD(for the same reason if he continues with overcards like AQc-AJc, KQc-KJc, QJc) Fish continues with overcards on flop pretty often imo.
I check and he shoves on me - and then I start thinking. My thought process went like following - He is a Pfish - when Pfish gets agressive - its usually a bad sign, so in best case scenario he will show me a Q. But then I took a look at his WTSD stat and decided that he can be a little bit wider on his range and I possibly can expect to have him something different than TP+, plus I get a good price to call - so I called. When I runned a flopzilla after that - it showed me that if he would continue on a flop with overcards + weak pairs - than my hand by the river has 52% equity vs his range, if he wouldn't continue - than my hand would have almost 0% equity vs his range by the river shove. And Im really confused wheather my thought process was right or wrong - cuz I made that desicion upon WTSD stat (only 2 samples). Was it proffitable call? Or over the long run Its -EV play. Is it right thing to do rely on such a small sample size - or it was good enough for that situation?
Looking forward to get your thoughts on that))
Thank you!!!

Comments

  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,858 -
    I would not put any weight into the stats from 7 hands. While I agree that 100% VPIP over 7 hands is likely indicative of someone with a limping problem, it is 7 hands. VPIP does tend to converge pretty quickly, but maybe not that quickly.

    You start the hand with an SPR (Stack to Pot Ratio) of $0.60 to $0.15 or and an SPR of 4. This basically leads you to a bet/bet line getting it all in. This was arguable one of the worst "good run outs" for you. You started with a solid overpair, so bet/committing is the right idea. Then top pair pairs on the turn. While this has card removal effects for sure, a ton of the hands that call you on the flop include a Ten.

    Since you have decent reason, low stakes and the minuscule history with VPIP 100%, to think that there is a ton more than top pair on the flop for this Villain, you just continue with your commitment. It would take a serious, serious, amount of history and nittiness by the Villain to consider folding this hand from the turn.

    You did just fine.

    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • uncleB118rusuncleB118rus Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
    Thank you Doug for your feedback!
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    Remember, there's a real person behind that avatar.

    I think you may be too quick to apply stereotypes based on stats instead of real knowledge. Be cautious here.

    Read your label of this opponent, and then review this hand history closely to see if it supports your judgement. Were his actions consistent with your idea of his strategy? Were your actions consistent with your idea of his strategy?
  • uncleB118rusuncleB118rus Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
    Ok Yosh. Point taken. Thanks for your advice!
  • sneakyfrogsneakyfrog Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    I would bet the turn card since my range includes pairs and could also have AT, KT, etc. in it. I would want to get it in on the turn as opposed to the river and i think a bet would accomplish that. because villain is calling PF and on flop he's creating a situation where you can get some value.

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