Folded top Set on the River

hellsdesirehellsdesire Red Chipper Posts: 22
edited January 21 in Online Poker Hands
Hi guys, I'm playing an NL5 game and flopped top set. This hand has been on my mind for a few days. Looking for anyone to enlighten me if I made the right decision.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed)

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG ($2.07)
UTG+1 ($5)
MP1 ($3.30)
MP2 ($5.20)
Hero (CO) ($8.86)
Button ($5)
SB ($4.95)
BB ($4.34)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 10heart.gif, 10diamond.gif
3 folds, MP2 raises $0.10, Hero raises $0.47, 1 fold, SB calls $0.45, BB calls $0.42, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.51) 10spade.gif, 7heart.gif, 9club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.13, SB calls $1.13, 1 fold

Turn: ($3.77) 6diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.77) 4diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets $3.35 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $3.77

Results below:
SB didn't show


THOUGHT PROCESS: I 3 bet the initial raiser's minraise with pocket 10s for value since this is the micros. I get cold-called from the SB who is 16/4 with an AF of 1 and AFq of 33.3% over 51 hands and the initial raiser folds. Me thinks SB is a tight passive player. Flopping top set on a straight draw heavy board against a passive player, I decided to bet for value and charge any draws or single pairs he may have. He calls and the turn comes a 6 which isn't a great card for me. Villain now has a straight with A8s, 78s, 98s, 76s and pocket 88s, though I am not entirely sure how many of these hands are actually in his 3bet cold calling range. He checks. I figure if I bet here I am only going to get him to fold bluffs and have him reraise me all in if he has the nuts, so I decided to check back the turn hoping to catch a boat on the river.

River is a blank 4 that doesn't really change the situation. Villain shoves all in. I feel like if he had the nuts, his check on the turn was to induce me to bet. Since I checked back, he may want to make up for missed value by shoving. Any paired hands in his range he would probably check the river and go to showdown. I conclude that I am only beating a bluff. Plus since he is a most likely a passive player, I think that reduces the chances of him bluffing. I am getting about 2 to 1 on a call, and I don't think villain is bluffing in this spot often enough for me to make a profitable call.

Question 1: What other hands should I include in his SB cold calling range? I can only think of pocket JJs, 99s, weak suited Ax, ATs, AJs, AQs, QTs, QJs, KJs, KTs .

Question 2 : I am good against all the hands in question 1, yet the action convinces me that he has an 8 in his hand. Does this mean that I should have called that river shove because I beat most of his calling range?

Any input would be very much appreciated!
Tagged:

Comments

  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 297 ✭✭✭
    Given that he is a 16/4, and that a 16/4 cold called a 3bet, I don't see many 8s in his range other than 88.

    You need to be right here 1/3 of the time and I think you are.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 721 ✭✭✭
    I'm betting the turn every time.
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 297 ✭✭✭
    I'm betting the turn every time.

    Why?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 721 ✭✭✭
    For a long, long list of reasons. The biggest one is one that you and the OP mentioned: there aren't a lot of 8s in V's range.

    So, the real question is, why wouldn't you bet??
  • PondyPondy Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    To me, this is a pretty easy call. Don't get me wrong: I expect to lose this hand a non-zero percentage of the time, but we still make money on the long run.

    Yes, he can have 88 in his range, but then he also has 99 and possibly also 77 in there. So: We lose to 6 combos of 88.
    But we win against 3 combos of 99 and say 1 combo of 77 (I don't want to count the full 3 combos because this is certainly cuspy).
    If no other hand could ever be in his range, this is already a profitable call as we need less than 40% to be profitable and we have 40% here.

    But he can also have AK here. He floated the flop and then he thought he can get you off your hand once you checked the turn. That's 16 combos, if we count all of them, which again I wouldn't, but I would count some. Then he could have KK, QQ and maybe JJ and he now feels he has the best hand.

    In fact, I expect to be good at leat 60% here, but probably considerably more.
  • CarrieCarrie Red Chipper Posts: 71 ✭✭
    The first hand that came to my mind was JJ based on his range and how this played out. I agree that the only 8s he is holding are 88 based on that range. Even with a sll sampe size, it seems odd for him to break his mold and play A8s or 98s or 87s for such a big raise, particularly knowing he might be whipsawed by MP2. At 16%, he's mostly playing broadways and pairs. If he is only raising with 4% of hands, he may well not have 3bet with JJ or QQ in the SB. JJ makes sense with his flop call because he had an overpair and a gutshot. When you checked the turn, he likely felt his jacks were good and shoved when the river blanked. The shove intrigues me but I'm not great with bet sizing and it's meaning.
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 297 ✭✭✭
    For a long, long list of reasons. The biggest one is one that you and the OP mentioned: there aren't a lot of 8s in V's range.

    So, the real question is, why wouldn't you bet??

    Given stack sizes, this seems like a check on several levels.

    We balance/protect our range in this spot.

    We give villain the opportunity to bluff on the river.

    We under-rep our hand and allow villain to over value his value hands. The possibility of an 8 scares him too. When we check the turn we introduce the idea that we do not have an 8. This works whether we shove the river or call a villain's shove.

    We under-rep our hand and allow villain to use some of his range as a bluff-catcher on the river.

    I avoid betting on the turn not because I think villain lacks 8s, but because I think villain will fear 8s here.
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 424 ✭✭✭
    bet pot on flop, shove turn. Even if his range is 77,88,99, QJs, 78s, 89s, your equity is still at least 50%. Make him show you a straight, then suck out on him.

    You dont need a boat to win here; he will call with worse hands (hes never folding a set). It isnt a good card for your range, but if you aren't betting top set what is your turn betting range? straights? how much 8x is in your 3bet range?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 721 ✭✭✭
    I think that OP is ahead here most of the time. Which means that I would confidently want my stack in. Sure, V will have an 8 once in a while, but we have to trust our reads, and our reads suggest that it's not likely.

    The best way to get stacks in, IMO, is with a value bet on the turn that's hard not to call, leaving just little enough on the river for it to be hard not to call. As it were, the check on the turn worked to get in stacks, but, as OP found, it's awkward to make that call at the end.

    Finally, you have to double-barrel with a monster in order to allow yourself credibility when you double-barrel other times without a monster.

    And, worst, worst case scenario -- your get re-raised on the turn, you call, and V turns over an 8 -- you still have LOTS of outs -- case 10, and 3 9s, 7s, 6s for the win and 3 8s for the chop (less one possible out if V has a second of those cards). Those outs alone just about give you the odds to call even if V turned over the 8 BEFORE shoving let alone taking into account the fact that you might be way, way ahead.
  • JRthekid32JRthekid32 Red Chipper Posts: 7
    I put in a vote for shoving the turn for 2 main reasons.
    1) I think it looks bluffier to bet pot and turn. Villain could easily talk himself into thinking you have AK which everyone loves to put you on when you 3b. Especially since you have very few to no 8s in your 3b range, a villain could easily think the turn shove is the nuts or air and decide you have air. A turn check back and river bet looks much more like a value line from an overpair or set.
    2) In addition to having worse sets and maybe some 2 pair, villain could also have hands like JJ and QQ that would be reluctant to fold in a 3b pot (especially since JJ has the gunshot), but if an A or K comes on the river they might find a fold. Not to mention if an 8 comes you're hand is counterfeited against whatever he has. Because I could see the river making some hands more uncomfortable but don't see it making any hands really more comfortable, I think a bet is better.
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 297 ✭✭✭
    Interesting points about cards coming on the river JR. Thank you.
  • hellsdesirehellsdesire Red Chipper Posts: 22
    Thank you for all the input! After reading through the comments, I've come to the conclusion that I was indeed good on the river at least 50%-60% of the time which meant it was a clear call since villain has too few or maybe no 8s in his range and I'm getting the right price.

    Wiki_Leaks wrote: »
    You dont need a boat to win here; he will call with worse hands (hes never folding a set). It isnt a good card for your range, but if you aren't betting top set what is your turn betting range? straights? how much 8x is in your 3bet range?
    As for the turn, I should have indeed bet because there I would rarely ever have an 8 in a 3-bet pot. If I don't bet here it means I'm never betting anything. Having top set is literally the strongest hand in my 3 bet range and there is no reason not to bet.

    JRthekid32 wrote: »
    I put in a vote for shoving the turn for 2 main reasons.
    1) I think it looks bluffier to bet pot and turn. Villain could easily talk himself into thinking you have AK which everyone loves to put you on when you 3b. Especially since you have very few to no 8s in your 3b range, a villain could easily think the turn shove is the nuts or air and decide you have air. A turn check back and river bet looks much more like a value line from an overpair or set.
    2) In addition to having worse sets and maybe some 2 pair, villain could also have hands like JJ and QQ that would be reluctant to fold in a 3b pot (especially since JJ has the gunshot), but if an A or K comes on the river they might find a fold. Not to mention if an 8 comes you're hand is counterfeited against whatever he has. Because I could see the river making some hands more uncomfortable but don't see it making any hands really more comfortable, I think a bet is better.
    Lastly, between shoving and betting, since if I bet I'm already pot committed it's essentially a shove. And yes, I agree that shoving is definitely better since it looks bluffier and may indeed induce a passive player like villain to call down with bluff catchers or second best hands.

    Conclusion:
    1) I should have played against his cold calling range and not pin him down to a specific hand
    2) Shove the turn to induce a call from bluff catchers or second best hands in villain's range

    Admittedly, since this is the micros, I have made a habit of almost never bluffing and almost only shoving with the nuts or TPTK if SPR is 3 or less. Such an unbalanced strategy will probably not work in the small stakes. I'm moving up to 10NL soon since I now have 50 buy-ins worth and I think this discussion will help me with my game so I'm very grateful. Moving up from the micros to the small stakes hopefully! After almost a year of learning and confirming that I am winning at the micros.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭✭
    Wait wait wait! Did you guys took the time to see what a 16 Vpip calling range look like? He is 16/4 by the way, not 16/15.

    I would bet the Turn really often here.