River fold or call against re-raise shove? Versus aggro fish NL10

hellsdesirehellsdesire Red Chipper Posts: 22
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed)

saw flop | saw showdown

BB ($10)
UTG ($11.68)
MP1 ($4.17)
Hero (MP2) ($12.29)
CO ($11.08)
Button ($9.82)
SB ($13.43)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Jclub.gif, Aheart.gif
2 folds, Hero raises $0.35, 1 fold, Button calls $0.35, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.85) 3diamond.gif, 10spade.gif, 4spade.gif(2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, Button calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.85) Jdiamond.gif(2 players)
Hero bets $1.12, Button calls $1.12

River: ($4.09) Adiamond.gif(2 players)
Hero bets $3.06, Button raises $7.85 (All-In), Hero calls $4.79

Total pot: $19.79

Results below:
Button had 5club.gif, 2club.gif (straight, five high).
Hero had Jclub.gif, Aheart.gif (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
Outcome: Button won $18.81

Thought Process: Villain is 48/30/6 over 23 hands, an aggro fish. I raise from the MP with AJ off which is standard. Villain calls on the button. Flop comes 3diamond.gif, 10spade.gif, 4spade.gif and I make a standard CB. I don't expect many folds here since villain is pretty aggro, but I have seen him fold to a CB once before. Villain calls. With him playing so many hands, my estimation of his range is flush draws, weak Tx, overcards and middle pocket pairs. Still a huge range at this point.

The turn comes the Jdiamond.gif which is a good card for me. I decided to bet out here for value and charge him for any draws or pocket pairs he may have, or if he has a weaker jack like QJ or KJ. Villain calls my bet. The River comes the Adiamond.gif and it's a card which I'm not sure if it's good or bad. Because while it gives me 2 pair, KQ now has a straight, and any backdoor diamond flush has gotten there.

KQ has 16 combos, and as for the backdoor diamonds I am unsure how many combos is the right amount to assign to him. Let's say KdTd, 7d8d, 5d6d, 8d9d, Td9d 5 combos. Since he is an aggro fish let's double that to 10. He may have also slowplayed a set here which are 33, TT, 44 so 9 combos. Roughly 35 combos here where I'm beat.

So what am I beating here that he may have? JT (4 combos), AQ (8 combos, though this may have been re-raised preflop), AT-A2 (60 combos) and all the missed flushed draws he may have. I'm again unsure how many of these missed flush combos I should assign to him. Let's say QsJs, KsJs, AsJs (though I think he would have played these 3 hands aggressively on the turn), 7s8s, 8s9s, 5s6s . Again, since he is playing so wide let's double these flush combos from 5 to 10. I am also beating any bluff catchers he may have like 55-99 which are 30 combos. Altogether he may have 112 combos which I may be beating here which he called the flop and turn.

35/147 comes to about 24% equity for him and 76% equity for me. I did not make these calculations while in the hand, but I figured I am ahead of most of his range and decided to make a value bet since he will call with many worse hands. He decides to re-raise me all in, and that's when I had a bad feeling I'm beat. The pot is $15 and I needed $4.80 to call, giving me 3 to 1 on a call. I need to be good here 33% of the time to break even.

Thinking back, what hands out of those 147 combos would re-raise me that I'm losing to? I figure flushes (10 combos) and straights (16 combos) would shove. Sets (9 combos) may just be a call, but then again this is an aggro fish, he may feel its equal to the nuts on this board and shove anyway. So 35 combos. What re-raising hands do I beat here? TPTK like AQ (8 combos), 2 pair hands consisting of JT, AT, A4, A3 (16 combos) and missed draws turned to bluffs (10 combos of spades) for a total of 34. That means 35/69, which translates to about 50% of the time I'm good here. If we take away AQ as a reraise and only a call, then it's 35/61 which is 57% equity for him and 43% for me. I'm still getting the odds to call, so I think I made the +EV decision here.

I call and he turns over 52 of clubs for the straight. Such a hand.

Question 1) So the important question I have here is are my calculations correct? What hands should I or should I not include in his wide button calling range? How many flush draws should I assign him on the flop?

Question 2) On the river, out of the 10 combos of missed flush draws, would he bluff all 10 of them? Should I say maybe he only bluffs 2 out of those 10 combos instead and readjust my calculation?

Question 3) Overall was this re-raise shove a call or a fold? Or should I have checked-called the river?

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    "Question 3) Overall was this re-raise shove a call or a fold? Or should I have checked-called the river?"

    In a vacuum, I don't mind your play at all. I would only ask what your previous pattern in these situations are and what V's betting pattern is likely to be here. That being said, I think that your hand is good enough to win often enough to make this bet -- and call.
  • hellsdesirehellsdesire Red Chipper Posts: 22
    In a vacuum, I don't mind your play at all. I would only ask what your previous pattern in these situations are and what V's betting pattern is likely to be here. That being said, I think that your hand is good enough to win often enough to make this bet -- and call.

    I didn't have many hands on Villain, but I knew he was playing really wide. I would say he is pretty sticky with draws and if he connected with the board in some way. Hence why I started value betting. That river re-raise shove, not sure how often he would be bluffing here since I only have 23 hands on him. As for my previous betting pattern, I would say against fishy players like him I tend to bet for value when I have TPTK or better. And play fit or fold against them. Possibly one standard CB if I see they have 50% of more fold to CB even if I have Ace high and I open up from MP or EP. I rarely checkraise these guys since they are so often on draws and would just straight up bet into them. If he is super aggro, like AF 5 or more and he is being a complete maniac, I will check-call OOP and let him start trying to bluff me off the pot when I have hands like TPTK or better. IP I would call his bets and let him double or triple barrel. I would shove over the top of the third barrel if I have a good hand.

    The thing is, if he is playing stuff like 52s, then I think betting for value on the river is often the right play, since he is usually gonna call with so much trash a large majority of the time. It's just that re-raise that I think maybe I should have folded. Even though I think I'm getting the right odds. Top 2 pair against such an opponent is just super hard to fold though.

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