Hand 22: AdTd in the HJ

JoskroketJoskroket Red Chipper Posts: 34 ✭✭
SB seems loose with 39/21 but that ofc doesn't mean he's loose from the SB. His 3bet stats are tight with just 6%. I am giving him a 3 betting range with quite some bluffs. 3bet bluff 88 and A5s worst hands.
Preflop range: AA-JJ,AKo,AKs,AJo,KQo,A9s-A8s,A5s,KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,TT-88,AQo,AQs.
Flop: :Jd :5c :3c
Very strange check imo. I can't have a lot of Jx in my calling range, nor many overpairs because I would probably 4bet those, so i'm guessing that monsters and slowplays are a huge part of his checking range on this dry flop, because he wants me to stay in the pot. I can normally only continue with flushdraws, and something like TT,99,88. He would bet if he needed to protect his hand with 88-TT, or with a draw to fold out equity. So my guess is he checks and hopes i take a shot at the pot or catch up later in the hand.
calling range: AA-JJ,AJo,KJs,QJs,JTs

Turn: :Jd :5c :3c :Js

KJ,AQ,7h6h are not in his range.
Same checking range, same reasons.

River: :Jd :5c :3c :Js :6H:

his actions are consistent throughout the hand with a slowplayed monster.

AA-JJ,AJo,KJs,QJs,JTs

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,919 -
    I think his range can have more 66-TT than you allocated - but you are certainly in the ballpark =)

    I assume you don't hero call that? =P
    My latest poker course brings the popular book 'Poker's 1%' to life- The One Percent
  • Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
    edited December 2017
    I liked this hand because I think this is a spot that I've been in both sides of at the micros.

    First thing I noticed was his 4-bet size seemed a little weird - especially since he's OOP in the SB. He 4-bets to $4 after a $1.50 raise. That's not even 3x. Not sure what that could mean but I would definitely be inclined to call with this hand. His stats make him look LAGish even tho we don't have a ton of hands on him.

    I had him 3-betting only 5.7% of hands from the SB. AA-JJ,AKs-ATs,AKo-AQo,KQs,KQo and A5s. Not a ton of bluffs but a few.

    I'm beginning to think I'm too tight from the SB after constructing so many SB ranges haha

    The check on the semi-dry flop does make the alarm bells go off a bit. To me it seems weird unless he crushed the deck which basically only means JJ on this board. I think when he does that he's pretty polarized to either A high or a set.

    When he doesn't CR and just check-calls it makes me further suspicious. A CR would make me think a FD with overs

    The turn checking thru feels pretty standard for another Jack dropping.

    His sizing on the river again seems weird to me. I think a pot sized bet or an overbet would be appropriate here given how polarized he is. A bigger bet would make it look more like a bluff than him just trying to milk us.

    That said, when an otherwise aggressive opponent 4-bets pre from the SB and then plays meekly post-flop alarm bells are going off haha. I'd be folding on the river.
  • fatking lfatking l Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    I'd rather have some mid SC in the 3betting range instead of the Axs mentioned above.
    This change the dynamic a little, because villain now has some flushdraws OTF.
    The cbetting stats indicate he does not hold them, however if he does then he calls.

    After missing turn and river he might be trying to stab at the pot.
    I have his Range at :AK, JJ, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, whichgives him 74% equity.

    So clear fold.
    What we take from this hand is imo:
    • If we bet the flop, then we have to barrel the turn as well, which look a little like spewing to me
    • Therefore, checking behind on the flop, and betting OTT might be better
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    Yo King... You say his riv range is AK, JJ, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c... on a Jd5c3cJs6h board that is 19 bluff to 2 value combos... basically 10% value? What am I missing? Thanks

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