I should have folded Kings preflop here instead of shoving (10NL)

hellsdesirehellsdesire Red Chipper Posts: 22
edited January 2017 in Online Poker Hands
Okay, so usually we never fold Kings preflop unless we have a huge tell that we are up against bullets. But looking back at this hand, I realized all the signs were there and I definitely should have listened to my gut. Have a look and tell me your thoughts.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed)

saw flop | saw showdown

CO ($10)
Button ($6.46)
SB ($11.34)
BB ($10.11)
Hero (UTG) ($23.56)
MP ($10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Kclub.gif, Kdiamond.gif
Hero raises $0.35, MP raises $1.20, 2 folds, SB raises $2.45, 1 fold, Hero raises $12.25, 1 fold, SB calls $8.84 (All-In)

Flop: ($23.98) 6club.gif, 2diamond.gif, Adiamond.gif(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($23.98) 7club.gif(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($23.98) Qspade.gif(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $23.98
Main pot: $23.98 between SB and Hero, won by SB

Results below:
SB had Aheart.gif, Aclub.gif (three of a kind, Aces).
Hero had Kclub.gif, Kdiamond.gif (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: SB won $22.79


Thought Process: I open UTG with pocket kings 3.5x the big blind. The MP (23/17 with AF of 1 and 3B of 3% and 4B 2%) decides to 3bet me to $1.20. I've played with MP for about 800 hands and he doesn't bluff very much. Action folds around to the SB (19/16 with AF 3 and 3B 6% and 4B 0% over 400 hands) who decides to 4bet to $2.50. Admittedly I did not pay much attention to SB's 4bet stat cause hey, I had kings! I shoved and was looked up by the nuts.

The thing is this, if I look at it from the SB's perspective, he sees that I opened from the UTG, therefore he must know I have a pretty good hand. As for my table image, I am quite aggressive preflop especially if there is fish on the table, but I am weak against floats and strong bets postflop if I don't catch something good (which is most of the time for everyone). Anyway, added on top of that is that I've been 3bet here by MP who is passive and rarely 3 bets (both these regs probably know at least something about each other). YET he decides to 4bet here. I don't think this person with a 0% 4bet is trying to pull off a light squeeze here. I should have deduced that the only hand he could have is the nuts and just begrudgingly fold Kings here.

I think I made a mistake in this hand and could have saved myself $10. What do you guys think? If I folded here would it be a +EV? Additional info: SB has Fold to 3bet of 80% and fold to 4Bet of 0% (though there was only 1 sample of this happening). MP has Fold to 3bet of 50% and no samples of situations where he was 4bet.

Lastly, should I pay more attention from now on even though I have pocket Kings preflop? I always thought that even if I lose when shoving with Kings preflop it would not matter because going all in with it is +EV in the long run. But if I'm serious about getting better I don't think I should just blind shove over a 4bet anymore.
Tagged:

Comments

  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 564 ✭✭✭
    If you do a search of the forum youll find at least one thread on whether to fold kings preflop to a nitty 3better.

    Personally my opinion is there are far better spots and concepts in this game to study and improve rather than attempting to perfect folding or flatting KK preflop. Yeah it stings to lose a buyin with KK but theres a tiny amount of theoretical EV to be made by trying to determine whether your KINGS, the 2nd best starting hand, is behind preflop.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    agree with Wiki...
    but your logic is too polarized

    yes, it's weird that SB with a 6% 3-bet frequency COLD-3-bets you.
    But his range could include AK, AQs, KK, QQ and maybe JJ
    (your sample size is tiny)

    so... why are you shoving?
    shoving typically guarantees that worse hands fold and made hands call, no?
    and if AK calls - which he most likely would - you guarantee that he realizes his equity because you won't be able to push him off his hand if a low flop comes...

    in this spot, folding KK is too results-oriented.
    but shoving is too 2+2 groupthink.

    at these stack levels - it's an easy call.
  • hellsdesirehellsdesire Red Chipper Posts: 22
    kagey wrote: »
    agree with Wiki...
    but your logic is too polarized

    yes, it's weird that SB with a 6% 3-bet frequency COLD-3-bets you.
    But his range could include AK, AQs, KK, QQ and maybe JJ
    (your sample size is tiny)

    so... why are you shoving?
    shoving typically guarantees that worse hands fold and made hands call, no?
    and if AK calls - which he most likely would - you guarantee that he realizes his equity because you won't be able to push him off his hand if a low flop comes...

    in this spot, folding KK is too results-oriented.
    but shoving is too 2+2 groupthink.

    at these stack levels - it's an easy call.
    It was actually a cold 4bet from the SB, who has a 0% 4bet over 400 hands. This means the only hands he is 4betting are most likely kings and aces. Queens is possibly a 3bet from him but I doubt he would 4bet with it here given the action in front of him.

    Calling may be okay, but the effective SPR would be 2 and there is little room for manoeuvring and bluffing him off if he has aces. If he had AK it would be an easy fold if he doesn't hit his Ace. While on the other hand if he has Aces he's probably going to stick it in. At this point I only have fold or shove. And if I called, what if MP decides to come over the top? I might as well stick it in and get him to fold.
    Wiki_Leaks wrote: »
    If you do a search of the forum youll find at least one thread on whether to fold kings preflop to a nitty 3better.

    Personally my opinion is there are far better spots and concepts in this game to study and improve rather than attempting to perfect folding or flatting KK preflop. Yeah it stings to lose a buyin with KK but theres a tiny amount of theoretical EV to be made by trying to determine whether your KINGS, the 2nd best starting hand, is behind preflop.
    The thing is he is literally playing his hand face up with his action and HUD stats. Not all players are bad like this and better regs at these stakes would definitely open up their 4betting range to be more balanced. And if I know what his hand is, there is no reason to play the pot. Of course, this does not mean I will always do this. I have only ever folded Kings preflop maybe twice in my past year of playing over half a million hands. I still get that folding Kings preflop is generally a mistake. But in this situation, with the information I have on both villains, folding would not be the wrong play I believe. Will I be wrong sometimes? Yes. But I'm willing to take that risk because if I did every thing the same way everyone else does, at most I will have an equal, not a higher win rate than the best players at these stakes (if we take away the variance part of the game). Yes, it is a small part of the game, but I think every decision matters. And you are right, there are other parts of the game to improve on, and I definitely won't neglect them. Again, this villain is special and only 4 bets with the nuts, 0% 4bet (plus it's against 2 players), so there should be some merit to folding kings in this situation.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    To me, a 400 hand sample means very little with respect to 3 betting and even less for 4 betting. Certainly not anywhere near big enough to draw any meaningful conclusions or make any large deviations in strat (like folding KK pre).
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    Yosh wrote: »
    To me, a 400 hand sample means very little with respect to 3 betting and even less for 4 betting. Certainly not anywhere near big enough to draw any meaningful conclusions or make any large deviations in strat (like folding KK pre).

    In fact it would be more useful to know VPIP-PFR-CBET
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2017
    Also you didnt provide any infos about MP. It's important i would think to know what type of players he is and what he was doing so far.
  • hellsdesirehellsdesire Red Chipper Posts: 22
    Yosh wrote: »
    To me, a 400 hand sample means very little with respect to 3 betting and even less for 4 betting. Certainly not anywhere near big enough to draw any meaningful conclusions or make any large deviations in strat (like folding KK pre).
    What would be a good number of hands before I can make more accurate deductions with regards to 3betting and 4betting patterns?
    In fact it would be more useful to know VPIP-PFR-CBET

    Also you didnt provide any infos about MP. It's important i would think to know what type of players he is and what he was doing so far.
    MP is a reg at these stakes. In my original post I briefly touched on him being 23/17 with AF of 1 and 3B of 3% and 4B 2% in the thought process section. Both these players seemed pretty passive to me. MP also rarely gets out of line or bluffs. If you need anymore info of him I've uploaded a screenshot of MP's stats here - https://www.screencast.com/t/Poviexvp3AL

    SB - https://www.screencast.com/t/O1lT7yum

    Let me know if you need anymore information on these villains in order to make assessments.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    Well, my point was that if MP was all over the place, it make sense for your tight guy to 4bet him a bit wider, but as you suggest, his 4bet range was pretty tight.
  • hellsdesirehellsdesire Red Chipper Posts: 22
    I will most likely not fold Kings against a single player, but with the SB cold 4 betting it's just a huge sign that at least one of them is not bluffing. 2 passive players giving action to my UTG open. If they were aggressive and capable of making plays here and there then it's a different story. So far though, they haven't gotten out of line with me very much.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file