Unique Spot in Bounty Tourney

foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
Really interesting dynamic on this hand, trying to factor in the overlay a bounty provides.

The tourney is $100 + $100 bounty, so knocking players out is pretty valuable. Structure isn't great, 20 min levels with blinds and antes rising fairly quickly.

Blinds are 400/800 with 100 ante. Most of the table has < 20BB, a couple under 10. The BB was crippled on the previous hand and is forced all in, whole table is talking about getting the bounty. Hero has about 22K (~27BB).

One fold, then chip leader who covers the whole table by a huge margin (~120BB) and has been playing solidly but aggressively, open jams. Folds to hero on button with :As :5s.

I think V is raising crazy light here, but how well do we have to be doing against his range when considering the overlay of the whole buyin to the tournament?

Comments

  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    edited January 2017
    What was the buy-in of the tournament? It's useful to translate the dollar amount of the bounty into chips, especially when it's not a progressive knockout. So say the bounty is equal to one half starting stack worth of chips and say BB is all in for that amount plus his actual all in amount, and you can solve this much easier in a mathematical sense.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    I'm mucking this. Don't think the bounty should factor in. You have a very playable stack and villain is likely not as wide as you think. I'd guess 55+, AJ+, KQ+

    I still would probably want AQ/99+ to call off here, but maybe even as tight as TT/AK.
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 302 ✭✭✭
    A5 suited is the new AK, right? So says Esfandiari. 30% equity vs all hands other than AA? It is a strong pressure hand. But not so much a strong calling off hand, unless you're at that <12bb stack.

    If villain made a normal sized raise, and I could 3-bet shove with it? Yes!

    Math wise, I think you are in decent shape if you really believe he is crazy wide. But I agree w/ @Monad... although the structure sucks, you still have a playable stack and can look for a better spot.
  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    edited January 2017
    I really don't think this is a clear fold at all. First we have to determine what the bounty is worth in chips and solve, and I'm going to make some estimations to show as an example. If the starting stack was 5,000, then BB is all in for let's say 5,400 (6.75 BBs), potentially very loose giant stack shoves for 27 BBs effective. We have to call off 27 to win 34.25, meaning we need 40%.

    We have 40% against the giant stack as when he is shoving over 13% of hands, so we are definitely ahead against his range. BUT, when we factor in the BB being in the hand with any two cards, we need the giant stack to shove >80% before we even begin to break even. I don't know for certain what this matters, as we're still likely to profit against the giant stack but we will not win the bounty and will lose out on 6.25 BBs (if 5k was indeed the starting stack).

    So I do believe it is a fold for these reasons, as at best it is very slightly above breakeven, and at worst it's a highly negative outcome.
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    For reference, the buy in was $100 and the starting stack was 15K.
    Monad wrote: »
    I'm mucking this. Don't think the bounty should factor in. You have a very playable stack and villain is likely not as wide as you think. I'd guess 55+, AJ+, KQ+

    I still would probably want AQ/99+ to call off here, but maybe even as tight as TT/AK.

    Why don't you think the bounty should factor in? It's $100 (equal to the entire buyin of the tournament), do we not care about money? Think about it this way: if we're exactly on the bubble, meaning if another player busts we get $150, that affects our decisions tremendously, and I think this runs along those lines. Getting 2 bounties is probably better than a min cash.

    I agree A5s is a fold here, but I don't think it's as trivial as it appears at first blush. I guess a better question is,bl what's the worst hand you would call w here?
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 302 ✭✭✭
    @tripletire ... thank you for breaking down the math. This is something I continue to struggle with, but reading examples in the forum is really helping me along.

    @foxxxer ... I missed the part about the BB being forced in. That really does enormously widen the big stack beyond the normal "bounty bully" range! Sorry about that. With that in mind (and the math provided), I think I do actually want to gamble here.

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