I feel like I might be missing something important here...

GregGreg Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
In game I thought villains donk turn bet was very strong.

I knew villain had some boats that I lose to.
I thought he also had combos of trips in his value range that I was ahead of.
I went all in because I didn't want villain to be able to get away from the trips hands if a scare card hit.

http://www.cardrunners.com/pokertools/session/3014518/replay/

What do you think?

Thanks in advance for all replies!

Comments

  • uncleB118rusuncleB118rus Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
    Hey Greg! Could you please give more info about your villain? (Stats, playing style, etc.)
  • GregGreg Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    edited January 2017
    In game I was fairly new to table and thought of him as active. After looking at limited hand history I would classify him LAG. I believe he was playing 45/35 with a small sample size.

    In an earlier hand when he was bb vrs. button he check raised with bottom pair and back door nut flush draw then donk lead the 3/4 pot turn unimproved and gave up on river.
  • derdonkerderdonker San Jose, CA USARed Chipper Posts: 125 ✭✭
    @Greg I had almost the exact same hand yesterday (albeit at micro stakes). I'm interested on people's feedback on this situation. Can the Hero accurately determine from the Villian's overbet, that a full-house was made, beating the straight?
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Board: :5S::7H::8H::8C:

    In a limped pot - SB can have:
    55 (3 combos), 77 (3 combos), 88 (1 combo), 57 (9 combos), 58 (6 combos), 78 (6 combos), 96 (9 combos), 64 (16 combos)

    combos we lose to:
    55, 77, 88, 58, 78 = 19 combos

    combos we beat:
    57, 64 = 25 combos

    combos we tie:
    96 = 9 combos

    remember, V donk-bet on the flop 2 into 3.
    and V called a $9 flop raise.... from oop
    (calling 7 to win 14)

    on turn - pot is 21
    V donk bets $15.50
    and we shove for $61.97

    if he had an overpair (e.g., 99) - he's not betting turn
    if he has non-nutted hands, he may bet but it would be more of a "blocking bet"
    not ⅔+ pot.
    if his 2-pair got counterfeited.
    if his small straight has been weakened
    if his trips face too much resistence...
    he'd have to be a "drooler" to call a raise let alone a shove.

    IF shoving folds out 64, 57 and most 8X hands...
    then shoving is always the worse decision

    Greg wrote: »
    I went all in because I didn't want villain to be able to get away from the trips hands if a scare card hit.

    this hand is a classic way ahead/way behind scenario
    thinking you're going to get called by worse hands is uber optimistic
  • GregGreg Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    edited January 2017
    Thanks Kagey!

    I thought this villain would have raised most of his small pocket pairs pre based on how he was playing. I also thought he would have raised A8 some % of the time pre. My best guess is he could have 55-25% of the time and A8- 50% of the time.

    Based on my reads his full houses were 58, 78, 1 combo 55- 13 combos
    In game I thought he had an undetermined amount of 8's also in his range.

    On the turn when he donks with large sizing I thought his range was trips or better.
    I think he would have chosen to check raise most of his bluffs on flop.

    In this game I have not seen players folding trips except for in the most extreme conditions.

    I thought 90% of villains range on the turn was trips or full houses that call my shove.

    Sounds like maybe I need to rethink that villain will call with trips.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2017
    the key here is your aggression...
    he bets flop - you raise... he calls

    then on the turn, he bets again
    now shouldn't he expect a raise again?
    I would.

    what range bets flop, calls raise and then volunteers to bet turn?
    (in a limped pot where anyone can have anything, I don't think it's trips)

    you've told him on the flop that you're strong.
    normally - players check turn
    but normally, players don't have a nutted hand

    me thinks only a nutted hand bets turn... esp. ⅔ pot... from oop
    that's a value bet 100% of the time

    since you raised flop - you could have trips, 2-pair and str8s
    which means V should not be betting unless he can beat that

    in most cases, trip 8s isn't a strong enough hand to call a shove
    (because opponent can have a boat)
    so trip 8s, on average, become a bluff catcher

    even :TH::9H: here becomes a bluff-catcher
    or against aggro opponents, it's a check/shove on the turn to try and gain some fold equity.

    shoving on turn is too optimistic IMO
  • GregGreg Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    Thanks, that makes a lot of sense!

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