What's Your River Play Against the Tourist?

PondyPondy Red Chipper Posts: 150 ✭✭
I got really annoyed with myself about this hand, so I wanted to share it. In hindsight, it seems obvious what he had and what I should have done, but I'd like to see what you think.

£1/2 game in London. Villain is an American tourist, who reminds me a lot of the characters described in Ed Miller's books. He limps a lot, hasn't raised anything yet preflop. Donked with TT on an A93r flop and then gave up, when he faced pressure.

Effective stacks are £250.

Now to the hand:

Hero opens for £10 UTG with AKo. Folds around to villain in the BB, who tank-calls.

Flop (£21): QQ5r.

Villain checks. Hero bets £8. Plan is for him to over-defend and then I bet bigger on the flop to blast him off his hand (I got this from Red Chip coach Hunter Cichy). Villain calls.

Turn (£37): an offsuit 3.

Villain donks £8. Pokersnowie would do this with a pocket pair to deny a hand like AK the necessary equity to continue, but I doubt our tourist is a thinker on that level. So hero decides to reraise to £35. Villain calls.

River (£142) is a 5. So the final board is QQ535.
Villain checks.

Questions: What is villain's range on the river? And what should Hero do against that?

I can tell you that I did the wrong thing, but it would be interesting to know what you guys think. Will reply with results in a couple of days. Thanks.

Comments

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Pondy wrote: »
    Villain donks £8. Pokersnowie would do this with a pocket pair to deny a hand like AK the necessary equity to continue, but I doubt our tourist is a thinker on that level. So hero decides to reraise to £35. Villain calls.

    when you're not playing Poker Snowie, don't make moves that denies Poker Snowie equity.

    when you bet flop and V calls, your radar should send out warnings.
    flop is 100% check back with your entire range.

    when V bets turn, you raise and V calls - you're toast.
    but not light toast,
    not melba toast,
    not french toast
    nor cinnamon toast....
    but HARD-CORE BLACK BURNT NO-SAVING INEDIBLE TOAST

    check river
    and table your hand as fast as possible saying, "Ace High! Ship it!!"
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    I agree with @kagey . Once you raise the turn and get called, AK probably isn't going to be winning this hand. I know how tempting it is to attack this donk bet on the turn, but this particular one is probably more strength than weakness.

    I think his range contains hands that connect with this board in some manner, so little to zilch air.

    I didn't include any weighting in these ranges. I think he would 3 bet AA & KK some amount of the time.

    Preflop: AA-22,AKo-A3o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q4s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s

    Flop: AA-22,AQo,A5o,KQo,QJo-Q8o,AQs,A5s,KQs,K5s,QJs-Q5s

    Turn: AA-77,55,33,AQo,A5o,KQo,QJo-Q8o,AQs,A5s,KQs,K5s,QJs-Q6s --I don't see this type of player folding too many hands on this turn. So, I think his range remains basically intact here.

    River: AA-77,55,33,AQo,A5o,KQo,QJo-Q8o,AQs,A5s,KQs,K5s,QJs-Q6s --could see him checking his entire range here, thinking he can score big with some of his Q's with a check raise.

    In the end, he gets to the river with a bunch of hands that just aren't going to fold. You have to check and get ready to much and say nice hand.

    What kind of ranges did you end up with? I had him being kind of sticky with a few mid pairs--but, those probably don't matter much in the end since he likely has a ton of Q's in his range.

    Was wondering though....you reraised to 35? Who raised?:)

  • PondyPondy Red Chipper Posts: 150 ✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »

    Was wondering though....you reraised to 35? Who raised?:)

    Yes, sorry, technical mistake on my side. He bet. I raised to 35, not reraised.

    And thanks for your range analysis @bigburge10 I agree mostly with it, but once he checked the river, I didn't think he had a Q in his range and I still think he would bet a Q on the river. Same is true for 55.

    @kagey Thanks for your analysis. Some good points in there as always. But I'd be interested to find out why you think that I should check back the flop with my entire range? I would probably bet a Q to extract value from slowplayed monsters. I would bet 55 to extract the maximum from a Q. I would not be unhappy for him to fold speculative hands like T9s and the likes. And he has as many Qs in his range as I do. Because there are two Qs on the board, it seems likely that neither of us has one.
    Against a tougher opponent, I would also need to bet bluffs here for balancing reasons, although in this case we can completely ignore this bit.

    And I think you misunderstood the bit about poker snowie: It wasn't me who donked. That was villain, so I didn't play as if up against snowie.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Pondy wrote: »

    I didn't think he had a Q in his range and I still think he would bet a Q on the river. Same is true for 55.

    The player that I've conjured up in my head is a weak, unlogical player...who will show up check calling the river thinking they're chopping. Not sure why:)

    Anyway, going with your range of him not having a Q, does the 5 on the river change anything? He called a decent sized raise on the turn, which could mean he doesn't believe you have a Q, or maybe he just has a hand that he isn't going to fold (TT-AA). In this case, I don't think the 5 is going to scare him off--unless you're shoving the river for your 200 stack. In that case, I think he's folding everything except a Q.

    So, what did this guy show up with anyway? What did you do on the river?
  • PondyPondy Red Chipper Posts: 150 ✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    unless you're shoving the river for your 200 stack. In that case, I think he's folding everything except a Q.

    Yep, I think this is exactly what I should have done. Maybe not necessarily shoving, but definitely overbetting. Something like 130 and he would have been out.

    I think his range here is any pocket pair that did not connect with board. And he can't call an overbet with any of these hands. I am still convinced he almost never has a Q or 55 in his range when he checks the river.
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    So, what did this guy show up with anyway? What did you do on the river?

    He had KK. I checked behind because I somehow stupidly assumed I had showdown value with my A high on a double paired board. Only in hindsight did I realize what his range here really was.

    Btw, a few orbits later, he raised for the first time. I 3bet him. He folded QQ face up.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Pondy wrote: »
    @kagey Thanks for your analysis. Some good points in there as always. But I'd be interested to find out why you think that I should check back the flop with my entire range? I would probably bet a Q to extract value from slowplayed monsters. I would bet 55 to extract the maximum from a Q.
    consider this:
    Flop is :QS::QD::5H:
    if you have :QC:.... what are the odds of V having the last Q?
    you've got the board tied up.
    thinking that you can value bet here with KQ or AQ and expect 99 or A5 to call is very optimistic. and from my experience, unrealistic.

    most players in a heads up pot check their trips for a few reasons:
    1.) since the board is paralyzed, no card can realistically come that can give V a better hand. so you risk next-to-nothing by slowplaying.
    2.) by checking, you allow doubt to creep into your opponent's mind that encourages him to be more bold with bottom pair or a pocket pair.
    3.) If you don't have a Q, you're way ahead or way behind. Pot controlling from in position typically yields the most +EV.

    (Note: Soto & Berkey aren't most players. They bet their entire range here because they're action players that constantly put you to the test. They are the exception to the rule. And they also play bigger stakes. Unless we adopt their full strategy, we can't cherry-pick certain situations and expect to get the same results.)

    Maybe you're the most aggro player in your room. Then, betting is fine.
    But know that when you bet, you're typically only getting called by better hands.
    Pondy wrote: »
    And I think you misunderstood the bit about poker snowie: It wasn't me who donked. That was villain, so I didn't play as if up against snowie.

    what you said was:
    Pokersnowie would do this with a pocket pair to deny a hand like AK the necessary equity to continue...
    so you implied that PokerSnowie donk bets just like V did. And PokerSnowie is doing this with pocket pairs as well as Qs.

    so if PokerSnowie is doing this, the "correct" adjustment would be to raise PS to have it fold out its equity.

    but about the guy you were playing against, you said:
    I doubt our tourist is a thinker on that level.
    so he's not playing like PokerSnowie. yet you still made a play against him as if he were PokerSnowie... you raised his donk bet.
    If V in incapable of playing anything other than his hand - raising here without a Q or a boat is spew.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Pondy wrote: »
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    unless you're shoving the river for your 200 stack. In that case, I think he's folding everything except a Q.

    He had KK. I checked behind because I somehow stupidly assumed I had showdown value with my A high on a double paired board. Only in hindsight did I realize what his range here really was.

    Btw, a few orbits later, he raised for the first time. I 3bet him. He folded QQ face up.

    Not surprised to hear he gets to the river with KK. His preflop tanking indicated to me that he was unsure of how to proceed with a strong hand. He probably read that he should 3 bet KK, but he's afraid to scare you off. So, he can't decide what to do, and finally decides to just call.

    Thinking a little more, on the river, obviously he's calling with any Q, but I also don't think he's going to fold KK or AA. He's willing to call all bets and go down with the ship here. If you show him a Q, then he'll get to tell his buddies how unlucky he was last night and his big pocket pairs got sucked out on.

    Also, it was probably a good mistake to think you had showdown value. Given the action, I don't think you're ever arriving at the river with any showdown value with an A high. You're only move is to shove to try to get a pair like maybe 66-JJ to fold, or check and muck. What hands are you beating on the river? There aren't any missed draws. So, he would have had to check call the flop, donk/call the turn with air. Seems unlikely.

    Funny that he folded QQ. Just goes to show that most players aren't used to seeing 3 bets, and when they do see them, it's always KK+. So, they are trained to fold worse than KK!

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