Stats don't lie

mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
edited February 2017 in Off Topic Chat
I have been tracking for almost a year. I play in underground games as the casino is 4 hours each way. 2017 hasn't been good and I am beginning to question if I am a winning player or not. I joined RCP in March and started taking the game serious. I got a coach in October and it has been a roller coaster. I play 1/2. I built my roll up to be rolled properly and then I would have a losing month and then a winning month and so on. Why can't I be a consistent winner? What am I missing? What am I doing right or wrong? It seems the majority of y'all are doing well and here I am struggling. Here is a snapshot of since I started keeping record

Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,059 ✭✭✭✭
    I would suggest posting more hands. Maybe there's a big leak in your game or thought process that's hurting you.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 703 ✭✭✭
    One thing I see right away is your % cashed. Personally looks too low. Should be 60%-70% IMO.

    It might sound silly but "Do you know when to leave the game?"

    IMO, being a consistent winner involves leaving consistently with winnings

  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    @Ninjah @sullyooo I agree that posting is difficult for me> i find it difficult but going to start posting at least one after every session. Leaving is hard hate to look like the hit and run guy. even though I am not. January this was KEy as several times i said i was leaving when BB got to me but the hand right before was a hand that I took a big hit or got stacked> i guess I dont need to wait just when I am done just cash out.
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 546 ✭✭✭
    yeah i mean if they are home games the host can ask up front how long you will be there as to not let other players get hit and run. If its a good game you don't want to piss off the other players and not get invited back. Some home games are more sensitive to this than others.

    If its more of a casino setting then this consideration does not matter.

    And why is posting hands difficult?
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    Wiki_Leaks wrote: »
    yeah i mean if they are home games the host can ask up front how long you will be there as to not let other players get hit and run. If its a good game you don't want to piss off the other players and not get invited back. Some home games are more sensitive to this than others.

    If its more of a casino setting then this consideration does not matter.

    And why is posting hands difficult?

    Yeah more like a casino. A guy usually comes eats and then live in less than 2 hours. The games are usually good with lots of action and you can get lots of value.

    Posting hands is hard because I dont do it enough and find it difficult to try and get all my thoughts and format in a timely manner. I found a new app I am using to keep HH and might just start linking those and putting my thought up about it.
  • LeonardLeonard Red Chipper Posts: 246 ✭✭
    3G? is that still around. J/K.

    We need more information as to why your results are they way they are.

    Hand Histories, Rake structure, anything.

    Personally, I don't trust underground games. When money is involved, I don't know what is really going on.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,572 ✭✭✭✭
    Yeah but the surely can misdirect.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,205 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I hate to say it - but this looks like a standard deviation... no?
    I mean, 179 sessions at approx. 5 hours per session.
    And only losing $20 per session...
    doesn't seem like a huge deal.

    I agree that your "cashed" stat should be above 50%... more like in the 60%+ range
    but again, maybe you're running bad.

    nc9e5mph302w.jpeg

    Heck, I've lost $3.4k in just a couple of nights... so maybe it's all relative.
  • ChipXtractorChipXtractor Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 1,180 ✭✭✭✭
    I think @kagey is correct. This most certainly could just be a poor run of results. However, I would say that if you talk a bit about some of the hands you played, or maybe even just your general thoughts on the game conditions and your approach, it would be easier to get a feel for if your approach will be profitable long term.

    It does not need to be a specific HH. Just maybe give us some insight into the game and how you are going about beating it. Maybe touch a bit on what you perceive to be your opponents biggest weaknesses and your exploits.

    Good luck going forward and hopefully you can turn things around quickly.
    Twitter = @ChipXtractor
  • mbehr1983mbehr1983 Red Chipper Posts: 635 ✭✭✭
    I will try and paint a picture of the game. It is a 1/2 60-300 max initial then you can match the biggest stack. The rake is up to 5 for every 10 they pull a dollar and 1 dollar for football square jackpot. They play 4 night a week with a small player pool same people every night. There is a lot of bad short-stacking going on. Most player buy in for 60-100 with a few buying in for max and a few 200. the game play pretty passive not much 3 betting just limps call evenn with 10x+ sizing. Most just call with QQ+ and AK+. Most play a wide range with no regard to stack size. I think most play to many hands and cll to much. There are a few who bluff but probably not nearly enough or at the wrong times. My plan is to play a solid range and go for value (sometimes value own myself) this is the range I came up with in EP AA-66,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s. I have also been aware of stack sizes and position and if they are short been trying to apply max pressure. IP I am lite 3 betting with hands that do well against small stack it varies depending on Vs.
    it seems like they all want to see flops and if they connect they have a hard time folding that is why i have added lite 3 betting and squeezes depending if I can get folds or value if the hand warrants.
    I am trying to learn and practice combos and board textures and multiway pots since it seems like most of the pots are multiway
  • bleedTiltbleedTilt Red Chipper Posts: 86 ✭✭
    Your standard Deviation of $165/hour seems very low for the game you are playing. Are you folding a lot post flop?
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 841 ✭✭✭
    What I'm going to suggest here a lot of Red Chippers will disagree with., But it maid a huge difference to my game.

    A little over 3 years ago, I revamped my game, adding Variance into the mix when evaluating my lines. I had been using a lot of high variance low ev lines. Things like shoving the flop with draws. Making tripple barrel bluffs on flops that I new I would have to tripple barrel, that may be profitable to a tripple barrel bluff, but not that profitable. 3 betting AK and then check raising all in when I missed, instead of just betting 1/2 pot when I missed, or even giving up some times. Shoving big hands on the flop turn or river, sure sometimes it right but smaller bets, can often make more money against many players.

    When I begin to think along the lines of avoiding, High Variance low EV lines.....If I take a line that has higher variance, then I needed to be sure it also had higher EV...not just slightly higher EV against one set of assumptions...but higher EV against a number of different sets of assumptions.

    I found small ball poker worked best. I concentrated my study on those areas that would lead to high return while lowering variance...Hint, hand reading and getting control over your opponents are the number one things I need to do. I learned to consider and evaluate multiple lines, it takes math and work but it was worth it.

    Simple things were easy like tightening my range in early position.. Sure AJo or A9s might be a little +ev in some games from early postion...who cares it will add variance and in many games not add EV...so don't play it. Needing 20 to 1 to set mine, and not depending on set mining type lines often. Balancing your range with the ideas behind 1% or other GTO approaches are not needed, its defensive and not needed at low stakes live, it just adds variance often with out EV.


    For me, the results were excellent. I posted them here.

    http://forum.redchippoker.com/discussion/5898/fifty-thousand-at-1-2-in-just-over-3-years

  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭
    So @Eazzy this is EXACTLY what I was doing in January. I decided 2017 was the year of the LAG. I wanted to really ramp up my aggression, and had a HUGE downswing month, buying in larger, and running big bluffs, playing super aggressive. I'd stack off pre-flop with AK for 160 BB when I hand read them as having JJ or QQ, and I'd be right. With the money I'd put in, it's a +35~$ EV play, but it's higher variance. Point is, I'm not bank-rolled for this style of play, AND while it may be more profitable in the long run, it requires a ton of hand reading, fine tuning ect that I just don't have the time for to make it more profitable than the styler @Eazzy is talking about.

    I am back to playing tighter, extract value, toss marginal hands, tone down the aggression poker, make good hands and relentlessly extract value. I have been booking solid wins again, and while I don't get my $98 hr/ wins at $1-3 $2-5 anymore, I also don't get my - $138 an hour losses either. I pass up possibly +EV spots for higher +EV spots. One day I hope to return to the way of the LAG (my God is it fun), but it requires a lot more time and effort to master effectively.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,886 -
    I think @kagey is correct. This most certainly could just be a poor run of results. However, I would say that if you talk a bit about some of the hands you played, or maybe even just your general thoughts on the game conditions and your approach, it would be easier to get a feel for if your approach will be profitable long term.

    This. I know it feels like a lot (since it took you so long to amass that many hours) - but honestly that's around 25K hands at best. I don't even review a player's online stats until they have at least 40K - and even still the results are a gauge rather than the rule.

    Post hands, even ones you think you played well. Leaks will become obvious if you do that even just 5 times...
    My latest poker course brings the popular book 'Poker's 1%' to life- The One Percent

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