Check-call or check-fold river?

dadbotdadbot Red Chipper Posts: 12
Should I be finding river check-folds for the hand below? Or is this a profitable check-call long run?

I am thinking that there's a lot of Jx in his range and I am blocking some important flush combos (AdQd, KdQd, QdJd, QdTd). I'm torn between two theories here for my River action:
1) Check-Call: he has incentive to bluff overpairs off the hand and value bet with top pair, versus
2) Check-Fold: the board is so bad for a 1-pair hand and they always have it

Thanks for your thoughts! Here's the hand:

No Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10
Winning Poker Network
5 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

Stacks:
UTG - Hero ($10.51)
CO - CO ($7.03)
BTN - BTN ($10.00)
SB - SB ($10.82)
BB - BB ($10.15)

Preflop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is UTG with Qh Qd
Hero raises to $0.35, CO calls $0.35, 3 folds

Flop: Jc 5d 7d ($0.85, 2 players - Hero: $10.16, CO: $6.68)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.40, Hero raises to $0.90, CO calls $0.50

Turn: 6s ($2.65, 2 players - Hero: $9.26, CO: $5.78)
Hero bets $1.26, CO calls $1.26

River: 9d ($5.17, 2 players - Hero: $8.00, CO: $4.52)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.46, Hero calls $2.46

Total Pot: $10.09
Hero mucks Qh Qd
CO shows Ad Jd (with Flush, A high)

CO wins $9.59 with Flush, A high

Comments

  • Pocket8sPocket8s Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    edited February 2017
    I would fold on the river. Pretty much every draw got there, and that 2.25x check raise on the flop isn't enough to scare most of them off. You are only beating air here. You need a pretty good read on your opponent if you think he's gonna fire on the river with only Jx on this type of board texture.
  • JonasJonas Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    I think you fold the river because of what happened on the flop.

    What is check/raising that flop? You probably don't have the low sets. JJ is the only hand that really would but JJ would probably bet to not let diamonds draw. So maybe a semi-bluff with the Ad (you really wouldn't have straight draws here). Essentially your QQ became a bluff.

    But you got called. So he doesn't believe your sets, your Ad, No QQ-AA. Turn bet size is probably not going to dissuade him since he's already trying to bluff catch.
  • dadbotdadbot Red Chipper Posts: 12
    Thanks Pocket8s and 1BlackChip: great points!

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