Crying Queens

Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
edited March 2017 in Live Poker Hands
Common situation that I'm uncomfortable with. I'll share some player reads here but I'm more interested in the general concept. Thanks.

1-3 NL live. Both villains have ~$250 to start, I cover.

UTG opens for $16. He seems weak but knows some concepts. I've three bet him into folding twice preflop already, neither were light on my part (ok one was a little frisky but not insane) I just happened to get good hands. He's annoyed though.

I 3-bet to $50 in CO with QQ. BB calls flat and UTG calls. BB is a bad player who has flopped so many straights and flushes it's sick. Still managed to be about break-even due to all around crappiness.

Flop is awful and drawy, something like KcTc8s. I don't recall if I have Qc, if it matters.

Checked to me, I bet $75.

On the table I did this because:
A) there are some draws and tens I can charge
B) if a K is out there, I lose the same amount as checking, because I'll call a turn bet if I check and fold to a flop c/r.

Upon reflection I think I overestimated possible draws and underestimated the likelihood of a K. I don't know anything about their 3-bet calling range, other than UTG is probably wide out of frustration.

Does anyone give up on this hand on the flop? Why or why not?
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Comments

  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 564 ✭✭✭
    You having the Qc is very important when stacks are deeper.

    I like a bet here for protection/ value. You probably wont get a ton of folds, but both if these players can and will call with worse. You also block KQ.

    However, folding to a cr/jam is not an option. Pot is150 to the flop with 200 behind. If you cb 75 and one cr/jams the pot is 425 and you need to call 125.
  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    Thanks @Wiki_Leaks. One thing I've become very convinced of, is that in this cardroom (MGM national harbor) at 1-3 a flop c/r is a made hand. I've literally never seen a semi bluff c/r here, and c/r in general is very rare. I'd feel confident I'm good less than 20% if that happens. But you helped me realize that's specific to my games and I should have noted it above. Would this change your assessment? Thanks again.
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 564 ✭✭✭
    of course. If you are going to put yourself in a thin spot by betting, then try to show it down or induce a bluff on the turn. keep in mind at these stack sizes, however, that its not really a mistake to play for stacks either way. With the straddle youre playing about 40BB poker and the pot is already huge, which likely makes it more of a mistake to fold then to call.

    As far as calling the CR, given your price you only need to be good about 22% which is pretty easy if he is ever CR any nut flush draws, which I know is possible at those stakes and in that room.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,221 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Sean O wrote: »
    Flop is awful and drawy, something like KcTc8s. I don't recall if I have Qc, if it matters.
    It matters a lot! When you're charging your 3bet and then C-Bet on a :CLUB::CLUB::SPADE: , you've to think about the hands Villains will call you. And your :QC: matters: because Kc and Qc are out (on the board / in your hand), it means that flushdraws can only be AcJc or AcTc - or middle suited connectors if Villains are able to cold called OOP (BB) or open/call (UTG) with them.

    On the other hands, you're facing a lot of K combos: AK (many don't 4bet them), KQ (most are blocked because QQ) and KJ. A bit more when BB is spewy and call with KT or K9.
    How many T will have cold called (BB) or open/call (UTG) ? I would say fewer: AT and maybe JT/T9 (but KT? blocked QT?)

    Since you've a very low SPR (~1.3) you've almost not maneuverability. Do you want to play your stack with a pair under the top pair? On a board where many people can connect (with K, T, OESD, gutshot, FD), i.e. call, and this beating me or having a good equity, I would rather check behind and SDV QQ.
  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    Thanks, the point about showdown value is good and something I was missing.

    On the c/r point: assume for a minute when he c/r's its 2/3 made hands and 1/3 strong draws that get there 1/3 of the time. I lose to all the made hands for 67% and a third of the draws for another 11%. If that is his pattern calling is break-even for me here (I'm good exactly 22%). That seems like it'd be a good balanced strategy but I don't think my opponents are anywhere close to that. I almost treat it like a corollary of ed miller's "don't pay off on the river" guidance. Am I thinking poorly or doing the math wrong?
  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    Also, I think I just talked myself into check raising draws more often
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    I think that you're betting too light. UTG V is getting 2:1 to call if everyone folds and even better odds with one caller. And, if UTG V is frustrated with your 3betting, then start 3betting higher: UTG V will just make mistakes out of frustration for more money.

    In addition, by pre-flop raising even to $60, you make your entire post-flop play much smoother. With two calls, the pot is $180. $190 is behind as effective stacks. Makes it a simple shove there (or check-fold).

    As played pre-flop, your cbet is also too light. About half the pot. Not likely to induce folds from hands with any equity. And it only leaves effective stacks of $125. As @Wiki_Leaks noted, you're essentially stack committed at that point. So, following your logic ("if a K is out there, I lose the same amount as checking, because I'll call a turn bet if I check and fold to a flop c/r."), you could just as easily overbet the pot here.

    I do find that overcards appear scary, but K, to me, is less scary than most. AK isn't likely, as a re-raise would have been very possible. Same as KK. How many people really get involved in a big pre-flop hand with KQ or lighter? Obviously, some do some of the time, but it's not massive possibility. Bottom line, there are a lot of preflop calling hands that don't have a K. If you were ahead of them preflop, as you almost definitely were, then you're almost definitely ahead of them here. With all that in mind, I don't think that the K is so scary, and I'd be comfortable shipping it on the flop.
  • JonasJonas Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    Sean O wrote: »
    B) if a K is out there, I lose the same amount as checking, because I'll call a turn bet if I check and fold to a flop c/r.

    Yes, but in the alternate universe of you checking, you got to see a turn and what they'll do with it since you have position on both.

    And the added benefit of letting the AT, JJ, and 99 think it's okay to come out.
  • SturmwespeSturmwespe Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    If your read is that your opponents don't semibluff or bluff raise weakness and are never folding a K why not bet 50 on flop. Charges weak draws, random unpaired As and smaller pairs and 10s . If reraised makes your hero fold less costly. To balance this sizing you will of course need to use same sizing on some monsters as well.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    It's hard to have a read like that, no?
  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    That's pretty close to my default opponent profile - when I'm in position in 1-3 or 1-2. @Wiki_Leaks was challenging that default though, suggesting there are more c/r semi bluffs than I'm giving credit for.

    I suppose if I shove the flop I can get some K's to fold, not AK though.

    @moishetreats, I think AK is a good candidate for a 3 bet call, especially if it's off suit. So while I thought a K was unlikely, AK seemed the most likely holding with a K, Especially since I had half the Q's in my pocket.

    Seems like a drawing hand is pretty unlikely for similar reasons right? Here's where I wish I remembered if I had Qc. Setting that aside, drawing hands that had any business being in this pot and continuing after a flop bet would be roughly:

    AcQx - 2
    AcJx -4
    QJs -4??
    AxQc - 3?? (AcQc counted above)
    AxJc -4???
    17 combos max unless anyone wants to add to the list.

    Then there's gut shots with no BDFD that would take a free card but not call a reasonable bet. AQ or AJ with no club. I think that's 15 combos.

    I'm dead against 6 combos of KQ and 12 combos of AK (discount if you think AK 4-bets me some). I don't think KJ is totally out of the question for a bad player, maybe a couple combos. TT has 6 combos. Something like 26 combos I'm dead against, maybe a little more if you think 88 is in range (I don't)

    I beat JJ and 99 which probably fold on the flop if I bet so don't matter much unless I induce a turn bet.

    Any others I should be thinking about? It's getting late so counting might not be perfect or even close, but if it is the bad guys' hands are pretty evenly split between made hands that crush me, and draws (good draws and bad draws combined).

    If I check, anything 9 or higher, and any other club, scares me at least a little. That's over half the deck.

    If I bet on the small side, I fold out the bad draws, keep the good ones, and get called or shoved on by the K's. If my c/r hypothesis is right, I can fold to the aggression. If it's wrong, I might be making a big mistake.

    If I over-bet I fold out the draws, maybe some of the K's.

    I thought writing this out would get me to an answer I like, but it hasn't so far. I guess shoving is at worst not a big mistake and is the best way to get villains to make an error.

    Please challenge the thinking. Thanks.
  • Rich57Rich57 Red Chipper Posts: 111 ✭✭
    I hate to try and characterize poker rooms, but at the MGM almost every time I see a 50 3bet pf, it is QQ+ or AK. You are sort of playing face up when you make that bet. BB has shown he will call most anything and by doing so gives great odds to UTG to come along. With that dynamic, I would have liked to have gone to 75 PF (easy with your money). Post flop, had you done that a shove is easy. As played, I would have bet higher post flop (maybe even a shove, especially if you had Qc). Of course, Kagey will probably shred my logic like he did on a recent post, but that is how we learn.
    By betting higher they either commit or fold and you scoop or get coolered. I must say that at MGM I see a lot of callers on PFRs of 50 with K8s or better. That certainly fits BB's profile as described.
  • joesizejoesize Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
    The way I’m seeing it is that you have to take a shot on the flop, unless one of your queens was the club. If it was, and you check, you’re in position with a b/d straight draw, and a b/d 2nd nut flush draw, and 2 outs to 2nd set. Even though you might consider your holding as having the equivalent of one out each for the b/d draws, and two for the queens, any turn catch would put you in a position to start fighting for the pot.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,426 ✭✭✭✭
    Yosh wrote: »
    It's hard to have a read like that, no?

    Loose passive is my default read on all live poker players until I see different.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,426 ✭✭✭✭
    3-way I XB flop and get to see what they both do on turns
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wiki_Leaks wrote: »
    With the straddle youre playing about 40BB

    There was a straddle?

  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    No straddle. Just an old-fashioned raise from UTG.

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