Did I read the range right?

David BDavid B Red Chipper Posts: 7
Poker Stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $2.00
SB: $2.05
Villan [BB]: $2.01
UTG: $5.07
UTG+1: $5.07
UTG+2: $4.18
MP1: $1.47
MP2: $3.56
CO: $0.82

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with Jdiamond.gif Adiamond.gif
5 folds, CO raises to $0.06, Hero calls $0.06, 1 fold, Villan calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.19) 6diamond.gif Aclub.gif Jclub.gif(3 players)
Villan bets $0.09, CO calls $0.09, Hero raises to $0.32, BB calls $0.23, CO folds

Turn: ($0.92) 8heart.gif(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, Villan calls $0.50

River: ($1.92) Kheart.gif(2 players)
Villan bets $1.13 all in, Hero calls $1.12 all in

Note that this was the first hand against the table on Zoom and this is not my normal time to play, nor my normal stakes so I have no idea how they play so I'm just going by probable population playing tendencies for 2NL.

Villian didn't 3bet Pre so I'm guessing he is defending fairly wide from the CO raise so I'm discounting AK and QQ+ from his range unless he calls with his entire defending range. Since I have no stats on him I'm leaning to removing those from his range.

Donks/calls on the flop so I'm thinking either Ax, Jx, I'm not sure if he would be LAG enough to donk the flush draw and it's not what I would think would be a normal play at this level. He passes the initiative back over to me on the T when it bricks so now I'm thinking it might be that flush draw plus the Ax, Jx combos. I'm confident that I'm ahead of all most his entire range since I still don't see AK not being more aggressive against the FD or a weaker pair.

When he donks the K I don't give him credit for improving his hands. Only draw that makes it is QT and I didn't give him credit for that on the previous streets, which may have been an oversight but I just didn't see him playing a gutty so aggressively on the Flop so the only thing I could think is that he still had a weaker pair or a missed flush that he was trying to bluff with.

Was my logic sound or was I being way too optimistic?

Comments

  • sparkyAAsparkyAA Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    bet was too small on turn. Has the right odds to call with a flush draw knowing he can get you all in. at 0.01/0.02, hard to determine ranges because of wild variance of play
  • David BDavid B Red Chipper Posts: 7
    edited March 2017
    I agree, he was only slightly -EV on the call by pot odds and with implied odds I don't think I could have priced him out without being pot committed on the river so I didn't try. At that level I don't if many people are that elastic and would release the FD for a few more pennies even after they were raised on the flop and hit a brick on the Turn, more likely they are thinking that they will peel on most bets to try to get the stacks in if they complete on the river -- at least that's my observations here (i,e, either they fold to any bet or hold on for dear life). However, I really want's sure he was on the FD on the Flop due to the donk/call line. On the turn I was a little more convinced that he had Jx than the draw but when the River hit then I figured it was a bluff with air because I didn't think he was playing QT or AK this way and I think Jx or Ax is too thin value to try to shove. Of course, I could be way off on my thinking here, which is what I'm trying to figure out... I might be giving too much credit as well!

    I'll have to re-examine the way I size to draws on the Turn but I'm in a tight place anyway because if I bet higher to price him out then I'm pot committed anyway but I might get to a pain point if I overbet, but if he is willing to get it in for implied odds then I might as well do a 2/3 pot value bet to make him pay to see it then see what he does.

    Definitely hard to find a range at this level!

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