AQo vs steaming grumpy guy

mbecks83mbecks83 Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
Live £1/£2 hand

Effective stacks are about £200.

Villain is a middle aged guy, visibly grumpy and steaming from a couple of recent hands. One where he folded to a river bluff (opponent showed it) and another where opponent rivered 2-pair against him. He's already called the floor to change tables but there's no free seats yet so he's stuck with us.

Hero hasn't shown down any hands yet but has picked up a few pots with cbets and also folded to one flop check-raise.

Hero picks up AQo in the BB. Villain limps from EP and one other player limps. Hero raises to £15 (I choose this size because I expect villain to be inelastic given his mood)

Villain calls other limper folds.

Pot: ~£30

Flop: K 7 5 rainbow

Hero cbets £22 basically as a bluff, though we might get called by some naked straight draws.
Villain insta-calls and I mean like his £25 chip landed about the same time as my chips, like he wasn't even thinking about it.

Pot: £74

Turn: K 7 5 T

Hero doesn't really know what to do. Fully expects villain to bet his entire range if checked to, so considers a check-raise with the broadway gutshot and 6 possible pair outs.

Hero checks villain disdainfully chucks in three blacks for £75.

Hero's idea of a check-raise has now become far more high-variance than initially planned.

Ranging villain is hard; because of the steaming he could have frankly any two cards.

Thoughts?
Is the cbet even worth it?
As played should I barrel the turn given I pick up equity?
Would he bet full pot with a value hand or is this just stroppy spewy bluffing?

I find this hand hard to analyse because of the table dynamic/moodiness of villain.

Comments

  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 564 ✭✭✭
    In my experience the snap call on earlier streets is a move to try to slow down the bettor.

    That being said, id hold off on this cb. If you has AQs with a backdoor flush its not bad in a vacuum, but this guy aint folding. These dynamics beg for lots of thin value bets, not low equity bluffs.
  • sparkyAAsparkyAA Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    C bet is fine. Once he calls, you say "might get called by some naked straight draws" and neglect to mention any K. I'm sure you realize K's will call, so include it in your analysis so you don't give yourself the feeling that you are ahead of his range when he calls. many more K's in his range than straight draws. The check on the turn is good. This should be a check fold scenario. Stacks are too shallow to reraise here.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    The turn bet for full pot doesn't compute. I would stick with your plan and check shove.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    sparkyAA wrote: »
    Once he calls, you say "might get called by some naked straight draws" and neglect to mention any K.

    I think what he meant was that his bet wasn't actually a bluff in the case where villain had a straight draw.
  • mbecks83mbecks83 Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    @jeffnc yup that's how I meant it.

    Conflicting advice all round not that I blame you as it's an odd spot. FWIW my thoughts:

    1) Given the dynamic mentioned, my cbet was optimistic. In a vacuum I think it's standard and good, but perhaps not in this spot vs this villain.

    2) As played the turn is a weird spot. I agree his pot size bet doesn't compute. Equally I don't think he's folding random Kxs hands given his mind state so fold equity is dubious.

    I folded but it left a sour taste. No idea what he had. Part of me wishes I'd shoved but on balance I agree with @Wiki_Leaks that "These dynamics beg for lots of thin value bets, not low equity bluffs."


  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Unless you played with this guy a lot to know his tilt play inside and out, you don't have to get stubborn with something you felt uncomfortable about intuitively.
  • Tommy ATommy A Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    "This should be a check fold scenario."

    That's my line here.

    FWIW, I've been experimenting for quite a few years with checking the flop after raising preflop from the big blind, and this is just the spot where I would do it, against a heated opponent. And it's auto-balanced. I pretty much decide before the flop if/that I'm checking.

    It puts me in lots of spots that are brand new to my opponent, and familiar to me. And it causes some people to stumble, and take notice.

    One of my favorite lines is to just check-fold the flop after raising preflop from the blind, and the faster the better. No one expects that one! I do that when my opponent is a solid pro. I just curl up into a ball and relinquish as little positional EV as possible by check-folding all whiffs, and with hands that have some play, I often check-call the flop and check the turn, and then formulate my plans.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Tommy A wrote: »
    One of my favorite lines is to just check-fold the flop after raising preflop from the blind, and the faster the better. No one expects that one!

    I like to trick my opponents too. Sometimes I shove all in, and if called, insta-muck! They never see it coming! I really trick 'em sometimes! :)

    p.s. welcome to the forum.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think cbet on k75 is profitable. It's pretty dry so doesn't need to be very big. Only 30ish in the pot I would just cbet about 13-17 and go from there. I would make the same cbet with kk or AK kq etc. Hard for villain to have a hand to call with on this board.

    Double barrel I wouldn't do unless your setting your own price. If you think he will fold 7x to a 2nd barrel maybe do half pot on the turn. Of you think he is calling maybe 1\4th pot to give yourself some odds.

    Betting exploitably vs these guys ftw imo

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