2/5 River Spot After All Draws Missed

foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
2/5 Saturday night game, playing pretty loose and a little aggressive. Not uncommon to see most players call down <$100 bets without hesitation with any piece. V in this hand is a regular and has been extremely wide pre (raising/playing hands as bad as QTo from EP) and does tend to get sticky but has also shown some really solid hand reading skills and ability to slow down or fold at times. Overall seems solid and at a minimum not totally crazy or clueless, but high strung and always acts nearly immediately.

~$400 effective
One limper, hero opens to $30 from MP with :8S: :9S:, V calls from BTN, limper calls.

Flop ($95): :TS: :5C: :3S:
Check, Hero bets $60, V calls quickly, fold

Turn ($215): :7D:
Hero bets $125, V thinks for a couple seconds and calls

River ($365): :QD:
V has around $190 behind. Hero?

Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,075 ✭✭✭✭
    Jam. He's capped himself at one pair by the way he's played the hand while you're still uncapped and you can't win without a bet.
  • Mr. DontMr. Dont Red Chipper Posts: 357 ✭✭✭
    Jam. Unlesd he he has QTo or AQss, thats only move to win the pot.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    Preflop your iso is a bit thin @ just 80BB from MP at a LAG table. As played flop/turn good spots to bet. River is a decent spot to shove, but too bad final bet is only about half-pot sized.
  • TiltboxTiltbox Red Chipper Posts: 78 ✭✭
    Making it $125 on the turn to setup the stacks that way doesn't seem like a good idea. I would make it $315 all in on the turn. With the stacks setup this way your decisions on most cards are tough for both your value hands and your draws.

    When your betting for value your opponent can just call with his draws and get away on the river (or get value from you when he hits), he can even call and get away because of a scare card. When your betting with your draws your fold equity is not very high because the price is so good. He can even call you with a high card draw that gets to check back and win on the river when you can't pull the trigger here.
  • Mr. DontMr. Dont Red Chipper Posts: 357 ✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    @Tiltbox
    I think turn over bet shove is too risky. From my perspective, live player love to put opponent on AK and flush draw. Villain with wider range will call heros turn shove. On the other hand, with every draw missed, and live player dont bluff enough, river jam will make villain fold more often though its less than half pot. You still got called due to bet size, and villains tendencies, however better flsu draw, or draw with a marginal.pair which would called on the turn will fold on.the river. Also, I dont think its profitable to over bet shove on the turn everytime you have draw.
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Other than a turn shove, were there some better sizings I could have used? I'm admittedly pretty bad at very quickly gauging how much to bet in order to set up the right sizes on later streets, and often have to take probably too long to think about it.

    Also is 89 really too thin to ISO at 100BB? The only player who had less than me was the one who cold called with 80BB.
  • moldyfishmoldyfish Red Chipper Posts: 94 ✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Going to just strong disagree with everyone saying you should shove river. As played, the decision was made by the button to go with his hand on the turn. If he has shown good hand reading skills, he's going to realize this is a STRANGE line on the river when an overcard comes down and call it off. This, in turn, would actually be a great spot to bet your queens that somehow hit. However, you have few.

    Some other spots in the hand worth considering. Your hand wants fold equity, why not check raise flop? You can trap some money in the pot and if he bets and the first player calls you can pretty reasonably shove over it and maximize fold equity with more equity when called. Easily balanced with overpairs which you have more of than flush draws.

    Regardless, this hand is about leverage points. That point is on the turn. You threatened stacks and he called. You are confused on the river because you didn't consider what your turn bet was doing. You have to give up here. If you just blast in all your flush draws because "you can't win w/o betting", then you have almost no checking range on the river which is dangerous once he snaps you off and learns you are isoing 98s (which is fine btw).
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Good example of a hand where your stack size kind of put you in no man's land and why most people don't recommend stack sizes between 50 and 80BB.
    foxxxer wrote: »
    Also is 89 really too thin to ISO at 100BB? The only player who had less than me was the one who cold called with 80BB.

    Well first, I count up 80BB for you, not 100. Also, even if you did have 100, I think that before raising preflop you should at least consider the fact that villain is "extremely wide" preflop, and is the player on the button, and he has 80BB, so there's a decent chance the hand would be 80BB effective even if you did have 100, with you playing out of position to boot. While I'm sure there were other factors in your decision, these factors aren't in favor of the preflop raise with 98s.

  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 546 ✭✭✭
    Moldyfish hit it. Given stack sizes and board texture youre lighting 190 on fire by betting river. You also block quite a few missed draws which skews his range toward made hands. Hes rarely folding here.

    I also dont see how villain has capped his range. This board texture is pretty dry, he has the button, and stacks are shallow. There is also no evidence in the description indicating villain will fastplay. It seems perfectly reasonable for him to to slowplay some bigger hands.

    A flop crai or pot flop, jam turn are far better plays
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 570 ✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    I don't think it's fair to say that the villain is over calling here without a read, or that the line is strange. The hero opened the pot, and then bet every street ultimately all-in. This is a classic line. Arguably not the best sizing given the stacks and board texture - but are TT(3),AA(6),KK(6),QQ(3),JJ(6),AT(12),QsXs(3) not in the range for 3 streets given the opponent's passive responses? That's an awful lot of value and a massive deviation to surrender all bluffs. Given that this is practically the worst hand you can hold, I like putting it in for the last $190.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,202 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Well first, I count up 80BB for you, not 100.

    Sorry my bad, misread your post, I see you were talking about Villain. You should still consider effective stacks of players you're likely to be in the hand with though :)

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,075 ✭✭✭✭
    moldyfish wrote: »
    Going to just strong disagree with everyone saying you should shove river. As played, the decision was made by the button to go with his hand on the turn. If he has shown good hand reading skills, he's going to realize this is a STRANGE line on the river when an overcard comes down and call it off.

    In what way was is this a strange line? Hero is uncapped and can easily have red Aces here along with several other value hands. The best hand that Villain is likely to have is QT that caught a fortunate river, otherwise his best holding is AT for 2nd pair. I think sizing could have been different to put more pressure on Villain on the river but there's nothing wrong with his line.

  • moldyfishmoldyfish Red Chipper Posts: 94 ✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Ninjah wrote: »
    moldyfish wrote: »
    Going to just strong disagree with everyone saying you should shove river. As played, the decision was made by the button to go with his hand on the turn. If he has shown good hand reading skills, he's going to realize this is a STRANGE line on the river when an overcard comes down and call it off.

    In what way was is this a strange line?

    You are isoing 98s from MP and barreling into a player who can hand read on a T high board. He's going to realize this queen doesn't hit you too often and cuts in half the hands you were betting for value if the river bricked. So the fact that you are barreling this river when the queen comes down raises eyebrows. It's strange! BTN has decided to go with his hand on the turn granted favorable rivers. This is not the worst river. An ace is a much better bluff card as all the Axss improve. By refusing to listen to what his call is telling you, you are about to spew off.

    If this were a more passive unstudied player who would never trap, I'd be down to think about shoving river. But this is not the player to do it against. This is a spot where all his tens are looking to hero and in reality you aren't blocking any part that the Ts isn't blocking on its own. That makes it great to bet for value and bad to bluff. Don't worry about balancing. He's told you that he's calling.
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Good example of a hand where your stack size kind of put you in no man's land and why most people don't recommend stack sizes between 50 and 80BB.

    Also, even if you did have 100, I think that before raising preflop you should at least consider the fact that villain is "extremely wide" preflop, and is the player on the button, and he has 80BB, so there's a decent chance the hand would be 80BB effective even if you did have 100, with you playing out of position to boot. While I'm sure there were other factors in your decision, these factors aren't in favor of the preflop raise with 98s.

    Thanks, this is good food for thought and things I need to consider a little more pre.

    Moldyfish, I think a lot of players underbluff, especially on the river and that river bluffs can be pretty profitable as a lot of relatively experienced players know this.

    Also I think it's a fairly large assumption to make that he's stacking off on all non-A rivers with a pair of tens (or worse). I think you are discounting how many value hands we can have here. Are you saying we should have zero bluffs on the river? Or only bluff aces? I think that leaves a decent amount of money on the table when V is sitting there with JT against an uncapped range.
  • moldyfishmoldyfish Red Chipper Posts: 94 ✭✭
    edited March 2017
    foxxxer wrote: »
    Are you saying we should have zero bluffs on the river? Or only bluff aces? I think that leaves a decent amount of money on the table when V is sitting there with JT against an uncapped range.

    I am saying that you should have 0 bluffs here. It doesn't matter that you are uncapped. You were uncapped on the turn when you threatened stacks and he didn't care then either. The time to be balanced was on the turn. Nothing is pointing us towards him over folding. Take advantage of him by not spewing off into him with hands like this and widening your value range.
    Yosh wrote: »
    I don't think it's fair to say that the villain is over calling here without a read,


    "Tends to be sticky" is enough.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 570 ✭✭✭
    What hands does the sticky studied villain read facing this last bet?
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    In response to whether isolating with 98s at 80 BBs effective...I can say honestly that when I first started reading this post and saw the raise to $30 with 98s with $400 effective stacks, I thought to myself, "uh oh, this is going to be awkward--"without having read any of the rest of the post yet. That doesn't make the preflop play wrong or bad, just that you will possibly get handcuffed later on with more standard lines.

    Your line seems standard/good with your hand on this board with, say, $800 effective. Maybe you need to try some of the uncoventional approaches suggested – like check raising the flop – to avoid the later street awkwardness of these stack sizes.
  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    Outlier wrote: »
    In response to whether isolating with 98s at 80 BBs effective...I can say honestly that when I first started reading this post and saw the raise to $30 with 98s with $400 effective stacks, I thought to myself, "uh oh, this is going to be awkward

    Thanks, this is good feedback. I'm going to try to work on paying more attention to likely callers' stack sizes and not just going into auto-raise mode when I see a pretty hand with decent position.



  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,329 ✭✭✭✭
    You problem starts with XC on the flop as a CB or XR are both much better.

    Unless villain is big fish I would almost never take XC-lead line in heads up pots especially with your sizing and SPR.

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