Turn shove mistake?

Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
edited March 2017 in Live Poker Hands
1/3 live. Good table (fun and profitable). Seat 10 flopped a Royal one hand for a nice promotion payout, which helped the table dynamic. No particularly memorable players, as far as style or skill.

My image is TAG. Not very many hands I could play, but when I did I got good spots to bet/win, and am slightly ahead. Main villain is UTG and one of the better players at the table. My only encounter with him so far is when he folded top pair middling kicker against my two pair. He mucked face up, hoping I'd show. I didn't and he might be annoyed with me. He's playing about $400, I cover.

PF: UTG raises to $15, I call in MP with AdKd, one caller behind me, blinds fold.

(The flat call here was an accident. My view was obstructed and I didn't see his action, I thought I was raising, not calling. I doubt UTG is aware)

Flop: J9x, two diamonds. UTG bets $50, I raise to $125, folded to UTG who calls.

Turn: Ac. UTG bets $100, I shove for his remaining ~$160.

Thoughts? Does the shove give him the info he needs to play perfectly? What hands do villains stop-and-go the turn, rather than re-raising the flop? What do we make of the $100 turn bet into a $300ish pot with $160 behind?

Comments

  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 552 ✭✭✭
    He should never fold once he bets turn. Nice hand. If he somehow folded here, note he is capable of making bad betting mistakes.
  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    Thanks @Wiki_Leaks. I think I could tell by the action that his turn bet was a mistake. I can't think of a scenario where I'd bet 1/3 pot OOP into aggression. So given it's a mistake, is it worth thinking about how to capitalize on it, or is it a no brainer shove?

    If I'm drawing and the river is a blank, the money is going in no matter what I do. So I'm trying to maximize for when I'm already ahead and for when my flush comes in. I suppose if the flush comes he has to call $160 (if I flat the turn) since the pot will be $600ish at that point. So seems like it boils down to whether a flat call will get him to shove on a river he'd fold if I shove the turn.

    Seems pretty unlikely and I'm probably agonizing over a couple bucks of EV, but I do want to check my thinking because I sense that I sometimes let my opponents off the hook with mistimed aggression. Looking forward to your (and everyone's) thoughts.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭✭
    First of all: why is "x" the 3rd card of the flop? Also it's important to know if J and/or 9 are :DIAMOND: as it discards FD.

    On the flop Villain C-Bets OOP on a wet-ish board and calls a raise (but no 3-bet). On the turn, Villain donkbet small (to the pot) but big (to his stack). I agree with @Wiki_Leaks : he is committing to the pot. I would say it's screaming he wants to play for stacks; and maybe not 3-betting the flop / betting small-ish the turn is a way to make you pay.

    No brain shove? No. it depends on Villain's range and profile (and the 3rd flop card).
    -> I would be very cautious if Villain is on the tight / passive who wakes up side as you might only draw for set+FD. A shove might be -EV.
    ->I would go for it if Villain is aggro / loose. (And more aggro/loose Villain is, better the shove looks like)
  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    edited March 2017
    @Red: the third card is an x because I'm old and my memory is shot ;). Let's say the flop is Jh9d4d, that's at least approximately right.

    I don't see how I can be cautious here. I'm not folding the turn, and even if the river bricks am I folding TPTK getting 5:1? I was 100% committed and looking for a line to make sure villain was as well. But I agree he might be baiting me to get my stack in with his small bet, maybe JJ or something.

    Villain was pretty typical for 1/3 opponent: too loose, too passive, too call-ish. Not horrendously so.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭✭
    @Sean O : great pot odds are a thing. But if you don't have enough equity - let's say a nitty Villain who will only give action with 2P+ - then you should fold, even when you're getting 5:1.
    Same about my 1st post: it was mostly to answer the question "do I always no-brain push for the 60 more on the turn?" in a general point of view.

    Now don't misunderstand me: I don't say the shove is bad!
    With no specific Villain profile and no read, in a "fun and profitable table" (so on the loose side?), I surely would shove or call both turn and river (for the 60 left). (Actually I would more surely call-call, as it forces Villain to show his hands as last aggressor - and I want to see his cards. And it gives us a very little fold equity when he doesn't bet the river and we do.) And then use the gathered information for the next hands against him.
  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Thanks for the clarification @Red. Villain has $160 left after the turn bet, not $60 as you posted, but I don't think that changes your points.

    I don't think this guy is nitty enough to get his stack in with only 2p. Especially if I flat call the turn after raising the flop, which would seem to say I don't like the ace and encourage him to keep firing something like AQ. But the call-call line is definitely what I was wondering about, so I appreciate the comment. The downside seems to be that I'm screaming that I have a FD if I flat the turn, so maybe he escapes if a diamond comes on the river?
  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    Here's a second hand that shows the same potential leak. Let's call this hand 2 for any comments from here. It is from a different session a while back, so I'll have to approximate some of the action but I think it'll get the point across. BB here has a massive $3k stack, button has $150, I have $350. No read on BB, button thinks he's good but isn't, may be a dealer based on interactions with the employees.

    PF: three bet between button, SB (me) and BB. I think the action was limp by button, raise to 15 by me, 3bet by BB to 35, button and I call. I hold KhQh.

    Flop. JcTh9h. I check, BB bets $60, button goes all in $115, I shove ~315.
    BB thinks forever, and calls with AA. I think I should have flatted here and let BB reraise even though this worked out for me.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭✭
    Sean O wrote: »
    Thanks for the clarification @Red. Villain has $160 left after the turn bet, not $60 as you posted, but I don't think that changes your points.
    Ha sorry, I misunderstood the presentation of his stack left. In this situation, it's more a grey zone (betting 100 out of a 260$ stack is less committing than 100 out of 160$).
    I'm on board with the raise tho; I would but be more incline to call instead of raise (I like the hand, I don't want him to fold, and I want to use my position on the river), but this is my own play.
    I think both call and raise have merit and are +EV. Villain's rage open-bet UTG and C-Bet on :JH: :9D: :4D: and his profile (unfortunately unknown) are the keys to know the maxEV line.

    Hand 2:
    I totally agree with your comment in the spoiler.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,753 ✭✭✭✭
    Sean O wrote: »
    Here's a second hand that shows the same potential leak. Let's call this hand 2 for any comments from here. It is from a different session a while back, so I'll have to approximate some of the action but I think it'll get the point across. BB here has a massive $3k stack, button has $150, I have $350. No read on BB, button thinks he's good but isn't, may be a dealer based on interactions with the employees.

    PF: three bet between button, SB (me) and BB. I think the action was limp by button, raise to 15 by me, 3bet by BB to 35, button and I call. I hold KhQh.

    Flop. JcTh9h. I check, BB bets $60, button goes all in $115, I shove ~315.
    BB thinks forever, and calls with AA. I think I should have flatted here and let BB reraise even though this worked out for me.

    What hands could BB would raise with pre-flop, c-bet $60, call to $115 when you call BUT fold to your shove? Yeah, I agree -- not many. There are many more hands that BB would call with than fold with. So, I like your flop shove. And its consistent with your first hand's turn shove. If/when you have an advantage or an edge, you press it hard.
  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    Thanks for the thoughts.

    Results: villain mucked KK face up. Probably got the max out of him, eh? I showed my AK, which I never do, but I chose to do it this time to keep things friendly and alter my image. The whole table started buzzing. "He raised that much with a draw? He shoved with one pair?" It was great. I know I got at least one $60 river bet paid off next orbit because everyone thought I was deranged.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭✭
    Maybe the call-call would have allow you to stack him (so by raising you didn't get max value of him)
    But on the other hand you table image chance and apparently you got some extra money because of that. Good side effect you were able to use :)

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file