Calculated call or leak?

TeamCupcakeTeamCupcake Red Chipper Posts: 34
Playing $2/5 and have effective stacks of $700.

Villain is a pro, who plays close to a LAG style, but slows down against stronger players. Has called 3bets from the SB with T7s, and called one of my 3bet OOP heads up with QQ. On that hand he x/c a 9 high FD flop, turn went x/x and he lead pot on river.

V is in the HJ and raises to $20, he is doing this with 30-40% of his range. I have :Qc :Js in the CO and elect to 3bet to $70. I want to isolate the V and maybe define his range a little here. I'd say he's calling and BW, K9s, Q9s, SC, Suited One Gappers and 22-QQ. I think he goes for a big pot with AA/KK and he most likely raises AK, but he is sneaky.

Flop ($145) :Ah :Jh :Ts

This flop smashes my 3bet range, though it is quite dynamic, I elect to apply pressure and bet $120. V thinks for a moment and raises to $420, with $200 back.

I tank and start thinking...what would he raise with here?

First instinct is any FD, especially with a SD combo or a pair. AK/AQ I don't think do this...sets of JJ (1) and TT (3) are low odds but make sense. AJ (6) and AT (9) are there, but I feel the bet would be smaller...KQ I don't think raises like this here, I feel he would lead a non-heart/paired board turn with that hand or check/raise turn.

So the hands that dominate me are JJ, TT, AJ and AT and have 19 combos...the FD combos are betting are Kx (2), Qx (2), Tx (2), 9x (2), 8x (2), 7x (1), 6x (1), 5x (1) for 13 combos. He also has Q9s (3), 98s (3) and QT (9), KT (9)...the latter I'd count only 6 of the 18 as he can make that raise, but not all the time.

I feel his range is definitely draw heavy here, and at best if he has :Qh :Th or :Kh :Th, we're flipping. With $300 to call into $580, I'm getting 2:1 and know he is shoving the $200 in on the turn regardless, so I get a bit of a discount if a heart shows up.

Back to the combos...there are 18 combos I'm 20% to win against and 25 combos I'm 63% favoured, plus any blind bluffs he feels like making or outside hands.

The quick raise leads me to believe he is doing this with a draw hand, if he was strong, he would just call like with the QQ scenario. Though there is some wiggle room here to play differently as the board is at the other end of the spectrum. I believe a FD is most likely but could easily have gutter or a T for a pair too...I don't think he has many Ax hands here, so I felt my J was best...or am I not giving credit to AK/AQ enough here?

What would your read be? Do you call the raise and any non-heart turn?

Comments

  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,366 ✭✭✭✭
    I 3B way more than most at 2/5 and QJo is almost never in my 3B range - preflop was mistake imo. You really aren't getting called by worse range, and are not getting better to fold. You say he is "pro" so do you really have some massive skill edge that you can 3B QJo?

    " I elect to apply pressure and bet $120" - HUH what does this even mean? I think you need to think more about why you are betting/raising in this hand pre and post, and anticipating what you will do if raised

    so you flop 2nP+GS and now want to pile in 140bb against a range that you think is either nutty made hands or strong draws? You are making WAY too many optimistic assumptions.



  • foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    I 3B way more than most at 2/5 and QJo is almost never in my 3B range - preflop was mistake imo. You really aren't getting called by worse range, and are not getting better to fold.

    I'm not saying this is a good 3-bet, but this doesn't really make a ton of sense to me. Saying this is implying that QJo is the exact inflection point of V's 3-bet calling range, where he'll call everything better and fold everything worse. I think it's pretty unreasonable to make such specific assumptions about his range.

    Is V continuing with every available combo of A2, A3, A4, A5, A6, A7, A8, A9, AT, Kxs, K9, KT, KJ, 22, 33, 44, 55, 66 and 77? What about other hands that we're nominally ahead of but would love to win the pot right here against And more importantly what bluffs do you have in your 3-bet range here?
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    1.You made the mistake pre. You said You want to isolate V. Yet you says he's a pro. Why would you want to go HU with a player with QJo who has an edge over you and is going to know how to play better post flop.

    2. Flop comes and you say it smashes your 3b range. If that's the case. Ask yourself "is V aware of my 3b range?" If he is a pro. I'm going to assume V probably has a general idea of what your range is. Assuming that probably is the case. And V re raises on you on the flop. What do you think that tells you?
    He calls your 3B pre oop. Then re raises you on a flop that "smashes your range." As played fold to V's raise.
    I'm sure the CBet works some percentage of the time. Tho.

    It seems like you are just trying to make a play but you chose the wrong spot and player to make it against. Watch who you are trying to isolate with. Typically you do not want to tangle in a HU pot with a player who is going to have a skill advantage over you.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,818 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Adding to the comments above:

    If QJo is in your 3-betting range, then LOTS of hands that miss this flop are in your range, too. And, if V is a pro, then he'd know that, as well...

    So, back to your original post's question, I'd call it a leak.

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭✭
    V is in the HJ and raises to $20, he is doing this with 30-40% of his range. I have :Qc :Js in the CO and elect to 3bet to $70. I want to isolate the V and maybe define his range a little here. I'd say he's calling and BW, K9s, Q9s, SC, Suited One Gappers and 22-QQ. I think he goes for a big pot with AA/KK and he most likely raises AK, but he is sneaky.

    May I propose you to think again about your 3-bet?
    - Yes, you say to isolate Villain. But for the moment he is alone in the hand. There are not limper before him, no caller between him and you. Also even if some players call, you still have a position on most of players.
    - Yes, by 3betting you define / narrow Villain's range. But by this he may fold a lot of junk / weak-ish hands you beat. Leaving you against a stronger range (even if your range looks strong). At the end of the day, QJo is not that great (no A/K blocker, not suited so almost no flush (or with too little IO), kicker issue when hits TP)...
    - Finally, you say it will help to define his range. But do not forget that 3-betting also define your own range.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,230 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    there are lots of things OP says that I think is well-intentioned, but misguided.

    V raises in HJ.
    Hero in CO 3-bets.
    V calls.

    if V's a pro, he's 4-betting his trash or folding it... and he's calling with his strongest hands because he's oop.
    So IF V is even opening with 30-40% of his range, when he calls from OOP, he's doing it with probably 15-20% of hands... and depending on Hero's image maybe even tighter. And if he's a pro - since he's going to be heads up with relative position, he might even flat something as strong as AA.

    So V calls...
    By 3-betting, you've narrowed his range to the strongest parts of his range.
    IMO, not a good 3-bet.

    next - let's look at your combinatorics...
    QThh vs QJos here is 40/47... with a 12.5% chance of a tie.
    KThh vs QJos is 46/52 with a 1.3% chance of a tie.
    So you're not very far ahead of his semi-bluffing range.

    What else can V have that he'd check/raise the flop?
    AK (12 combos), AQ (9 combos), AJ (9 combos), AT (9 combos), KQ (16 combos), JT (9 combos), JJ (1 combo), TT (3 combos), AA (very unlikely, but 3 combos)

    What's he check/raising that we can beat?
    T9hh (46/52 dog), T8hh (46/52 dog), K9hh (38/62 dog), Q9hh (42/48 dog), 98hh (47/52 dog)....

    so you see, anything that he's check/raising you has 40-47% equity... which is nearly a coin flip.

    I doubt that V calls with anything less than 98s and most "pros" would even muck that to a 3-bet OOP.

    @persuadeo once made an insightful comment on another post about how it's a mistake to play your hand like you would in a raised pot when you're in a 3-bet pot (I'm paraphrasing)... and it applies here.

    In a 3-bet pot, ranges should be stronger and tighter.

    Once V calls, you should avoid thinking that you're perceived range is stronger than V's... you should be playing your hand to realize your equity.

    Now that you've mucked it all up - I'd fold.
  • mdw72mdw72 Red Chipper Posts: 135 ✭✭
    A couple of observations, QJ off is not a good 3bet hand and against a "pro" its even less of a good hand. Also making this 3bet to isolate is the wrong way to look at this hand and action. If you are going to 3bet wit this it should be thought of as a bluff. So against the opponent you described I would make the 3bet bigger. A bigger 3bet will help define his range better than a smaller bet size. IF he calls you can If he folds great. If he calls you can evaluate the flop in position. Overall I think a call pre flop is the best play and 3bettign with QJ off is a mistake.
  • SliverOverlordSliverOverlord Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    First, why are you playing this hand preflop? When entering in a pot, not as a preflop raiser, I want to have at least two of the three advantages in poker: skill edge, position, or card strength. Being the preflop caller, you give up range advantage (especially with a hand like this) and skill edge I would expect to be in favor of a lag pro. You also open up the squeeze from 3 players, and would most likely have to fold. By 3betting, your pretty clearly bluffing, but with hand that doesn't have a whole lot of postflop semibluffability and not so great blockers. I'd much prefer an A blocker or K blocker to Q/J blockers. I want my opponents to have Queens and Jacks so I can barrel them off on the A high/K high Flops, If I'm bluffing.
    As far as sizing goes, @mdw72, I think sizing is fine. 3.5 the initial raise is a healthy 3bet and should get the job done a majority of the time. I don't think the extra 10$ will produce any more folds and will just create a smaller SPR postflop and potentially hurt hero's chance to get away with a cheap cbet bluff on a favorable flop.
    Another thing you mention, villain slows down against stronger players, but does he see you as one of these stronger players? One of my personal leaks is not taking into account villains building images of me, and if you are routinely 3betting with holdings like QJo, a lag pro will surely pick up that you're 3betting him too wide and fight back.
    Postflop, I'd cbet smaller and hope to take it down, or just check and hope to see a cheap and safe showdown.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file