Too optimistic?

Daniel JDaniel J Red Chipper Posts: 2
This hand was at a 1/2 table. I am the effective stack with about $310 behind me.
It folds around to the HJ who opens to 10 dollars. I call with 65 of spades and the BB calls as well. The HJ has yet to showdown a hand and is new to the table.
The flop is 6h6d3h. The HJ cbets 25 dollars into the 30 dollar pot, I call and the BB folds.
The turn is the 8h.
He bets 60 into the 80 dollar pot and I call.
The river is the 10d and he bets 110 and I call.

Now of course he could have a flush or a full house but my question here is would he take this line with big pocket pairs? If he would do this with JJ+, that's 24 combos that I beat and about 12 suited combos that would beat me making this a call and if you include 99 and TT another 6. My question is, is including overpairs too optimistic for his line of betting?

Comments

  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,105 ✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Hm. This is a fold by the river. Any over pair is checking back the river. Think about what hands he could have? A stronger 6? Yep, you lose. A flush? Yep you lose. By the river if he has JJ-AA he's gotta think "man this guy either has a 6 or a flush it's time to shut it down". And yet he's not. Your beat. I don't mind calling the flop and the turn, but on the river you only want to be CALLING with your strongest hands. Your being valued. Yes you have a 6, but it's not an iron clad 6. It's a weak 6. Further more it looks like you have a 6. And he is still betting. Without any reads it's a fold.
  • mdw72mdw72 Red Chipper Posts: 135 ✭✭
    This is a weak bet by villain. The is a $200 pot and he barely bet over half the pot. A raise from the HJ pre flop could be a lot of things and the weak bet tells me he's not a fan of the run out either. I think over pairs are a good likelihood with that river bet. Better sixes will be afraid of the flush and make a similar bet. Strong flushes will bet more to maximize value. He raised pre flop, made a nearly pot sized bet on flop, and did the same the turn. Now on the river it drops to a half pot bet.

    As you played it I would shove. You have called all the way and now he put out a weak river bet. By doing this you put pressure on better sixes, and small flushes and probably get them to fold a good amount of the time. You could also get a crying call from AA, KK, and maybe even QQ.

    Depending on the player and my read of his style I probably would have lead out on the turn or check raised. Jfarrow13 was correct in stating your six was weak. If you lead out you put the notion in his mind that you just hit your flush and make him seriously think about continuing. I know some will say leading out scares off the big pair hands and that is a good point but so many players can't lay down AA or KK at all and will cling onto QQ despite being told they are no good. This is a fold or shove situation IMO and shoving will always win more than folding.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,105 ✭✭✭
    $10 preflop doesn't scream QQ-AA to me @ $1/2. I wouldn't have minded raising to the turn define V's hand.
  • Daniel JDaniel J Red Chipper Posts: 2
    Thank you guys for your all of your input!
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 711 ✭✭✭
    As soon as flop comes, immediate thoughts should be plans to get stacks in on most runouts

    Not sure bluff catching for 3 streets is the answer.

    Probably going to need to raise at some point earlier in hand

    By the river does it really matter? If we're bluff catching, bluff catch. Not a big fan of bluff catching in general. Probably best used vs villains you are really familiar with and not unknowns. You just never really know what's going on.

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