Optimal bet-fold with 33 on paired board ?

RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭✭
edited March 2017 in Off Topic Chat
Hi everybody,
Here is a hand I play last weekend. I'm interested about your comment on Hero's bet on Turn - the very last chapter "Alternatives?".
I recently add a lot of bet-fold in my range and want to know if this line was optimal, or should have been done on Flop on delayed on River?


The hand was played in Universum (Budapest, Hungary) 50/50ft (0.17$/0.17$). 10-handed.
Most players in the house are sticky straightforward loose-passive. Villain sits at table few orbits ago. Villains is ~60yo, salt-and-pepper hairs, a moustache a big glasses. Seems he plays tight passive: he plays fewer hands than others; showed only 1 hand (in the spoiler; was played right before the one analyzed here)
UTG and MP1 (Hero with Ac5c) limp. Villain opens for 1000 in MP2. BB and Hero call; SB and 1st limper fold
Board: :QD: :8S: :3S: -- :JH: -- :7C:
Flop and turn were checked.
BB bet 2000 (in 3100 pot). Hero fold. Villain calls and shows :9C: :9S: ; BB mucks.

Yes, Hero played this hand like sh*t. But this is not the topic of this thread :)

PREFLOP
Hero is UTG+1 with :3C: :3S: . Effective stack 11'000 ft (220BB)
BUT makes a 500ft Mississippi straddle (10BB). (NB: player can chose how much for the Mississippi straddle, and it's uncapped)

SB: folds
BB: folds
UTG: folds
Hero: opens for 2050 ft. Yes, 2050ft (or 41BB) is a huge absolute opening, but only 4x to the Mississippi. Also Player are often sticky, so I want to use a psychological barrier (2000) to avoid light calls.
Villain: calls
MP2, LJ, HJ, CU and BUT fold

Considering Villain being tight but only calls, here the range I think he has. I think he will call with all pairs, to set a mine; being passive and 3bet being rare here, I think only KK+ will be 3-bet.
003n69hq2ltw.png

FLOP
pot: 4700ft
:JD: :8D: :8C:
Hero: checks
Villain: checks

Hero is OOP with a weak pair. It's a "Type 1" board: few hits, but they are strong (8X, AJ, KJ, 2 :DIAMOND: overcards). I'm not 100% sure Villain will fold 98s and 87s (=maybe he could have the set?). The board has no A/K/Q I could use for a C-Bet, J may be more in Villain calling range than in my opening range (=better for him). I'm not too afraid of :DIAMOND: , even if it makes the board somehow wet; it may help Villain calls if he has 2 :DIAMOND: . A check seems better; and Villain being straightforward he will honestly bet a good J and any 8.

TURN
pot: 4700ft
:6H:
Hero: bet 3600ft (aimed for ~3/4 pot)
Villain

I think it's a good situation for a bet-fold. Because of the flop's check, I think Villain has few value hands: has set 8 (no 8X), only some weak JX (would have bet strong JX), overcards and middle (TT-99, 77) and weak pairs (22-55). Worst case situation: a lucky boat with 66.
Villain being tight, he will only give action with some equity: boat , weak TP and FD (are only FD+overcard or FD+straight draw).
During the hand I thought he would fold a lot. Off hand analysis: he would fold 93 out of 116 combos (=fold 80% of hands). Which is way better than the breakeven point for an automatic profit (=have to fold 43,37% of hands for automatic profit).
Also he may call with draws, which means that 33 still have some SDV and may win when Villain bricks.

Result:
Villain folds

What did I rep on the Turn?
During my off table analysis I wonder what I was rep. I think I rep more strength that I actually had. First because Villain may put me on a tighter range (i.e. without baby pairs) and second because I'm not sure he sees me betting the turn with 33.

Our range preflop would be more and less the same. Hero's preflop range:
8ao330w75s8i.png
PS: not sure I would open EP against a 10B Mississippi with JTs and T9s tho
The main difference is that I will check 88 and JJ on J88, because these hands aren't threatened and I don't want to scare Villain. Also I think Villain will bet his (only) QQ overpairs, when I might check-call my QQ-AA. So I've few more combos on the turn.

Now I like to be laggy and I think this is a good spot to bet, so I will bet with a wide range of hands. But what does an old tight-passive guy think I will bet? Maybe he will put me only on top value hands:
ixhy9hurqboe.png
Is the range too tight? I would easily add overcards+FD, all OESD and weaker pairs; but not sure Villain sees it that way.

In this situation, Villain's best calling range has less equity than Hero's best betting range (48,5% - 51,5%). But not sure about the actual strength of my betting range + a big bet (in florin, not to pot ratio) may have helped him to fold.

Alternative?
The board was dynamic (paired and high card is J) and doesn't connect great with tight ranges. Was the bet-fold (semi-bluff) optimal on the Turn?

In my humble opinion:
On the Flop?
The flop is not the best to C-Bet semi-bluff with 33. All JX, the eventual 8X will continue for sure. Because we still have 2 cards to see, Villain might call more easily with draws. Also a bet-call gives us little information on Villain's hand, when checking will tell us a lot (because Villain is blatantly straightforward).
So better not on the flop

On the Turn?
As previously written, I think it's a good spot to bet as semi-bluff. Draws will be reluctant to call for 1 card and a lot of overcards may fold too.

On the River?
There are many draws + overcards. Which means there are a lot of scary cards: A, K, Q, all :DIAMOND: , 7 (for straight); plus T and 9 (does he hold TT or 99)?
Hotness in Flopzilla (Villain's range v. 33)
dp18grcpvwgm.png
So except a low card not diamond, we are not happy

Plus we are OOP:
We are not happy if it goes bet-call: surely beaten as busted FD and missed overcards will fold.
And even less happy if it goes check-bet has he surely have a better pair.
So we only have SDV.


Conclusion
I think the semi-bluff on the Turn is optimal. A tight-passive Villain will fold a lot of draws which have a good equity against a weak pair. And if he calls and goes check-check on the River, we have a bigger pot to win.

What do you think ?

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭✭
    Argl! Sorry, I didn't see it was in "Off topic chat" . And I can't change this by editing the post.
    Thanks to anyone who can put this thread in "Live hand analysis".
    Sorry for the mistake ._.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,647 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Why did you raise so huge OOP with a hand that won't flop big often and put you in this exact spot for a huge chunk of your stack ?

    You say that the table is sticky so do you think it's a good idea to put you in this spot with 33? if they are sticky it means they'll call lightly a lot when you Cbet leaving you with very little room to put a play on Turn and/or River.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,647 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    By the way V can't have a set on flop. It's either a trip or a full. To be technically correct, a set and a trip are not the same thing.

    As played I would tend to think that the X is ok Flop and the Turn is a bet also. I think I would bet a bit smaller though.

    You will probably x your NFD and some value since you are OOP and the board is somewhat drawy, favouring caller range. Than Turn you want to have a good price for drawing and let him have a ok price for him to draw. That's why I would bet a bit lower. The idea is to have a bet size that we know he will call River when he miss/have something worst and when we hit or Value Bet.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Why did you raise so huge OOP with a hand that won't flop big often and put you in this exact spot for a huge chunk of your stack ?.
    It looks big but it isn't: it's a 4X open-bet (because of the 10BB / 500ft Mississippi straddle). Also yes I'm more opening 4X than 3X to avoid going MW: I increase fold equity by raising a psychological amount (more than 2000). They are sticky until 1000-1200ft - and a bit more when straddle - opening but tend to be more cautious when it plays for more.
    I agree than 33 OOP isn't that great. We prefer TT or better. But HU it's ok as they will call with a lot of none-paired cards, isn't it ?

    As played I would tend to think that the X is ok Flop and the Turn is a bet also. I think I would bet a bit smaller though.

    You will probably x your NFD and some value since you are OOP and the board is somewhat drawy, favouring caller range. Than Turn you want to have a good price for drawing and let him have a ok price for him to draw. That's why I would bet a bit lower. The idea is to have a bet size that we know he will call River when he miss/have something worst and when we hit or Value Bet.
    Good point.
    So you wouldn't be so scared of a draw hitting a (better than 33) pair?
    To be technically correct, a set and a trip are not the same thing.
    Ho, really ? o.ô What are the differences ?
  • JonasJonas Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    edited March 2017
    Isn't this closer to a Type 3 flop than Type 1? There are flushes, straights, boats etc that can be made from this and thus it's scary. Which makes the X Flop, Bet turn line work. You'd probably be doing this with JJ, 88 like you said and having a check range.

    So really in this hand, it's the flop texture that got you to win the pot. But you essentially turned 33 into a bluff. Also, I think going by your raise, you have less J's and 8's; more high PP, Broadway since you're OOP. Villain can easily rep something that hits here and you'd probably fold?

    If people are sticky, i.e. they don't fold, then you shouldn't try to bluff them. But that's okay cause they'll always pay you off when you hit something (provided your sizing is to their liking). So you have to craft a plan of attack that takes advantage of them not folding- keep pots small for hands that need to hit then build big pots when you do, or get value from hands that don't need help.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,647 ✭✭✭✭
    @Red

    A Set is more disguised since it is made with a PP so it's less visible and obvious when you hit the flop.

    A Trips is like in your example where you hold 8x and two eights are on the board.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭✭
    @1BlackChip :
    I would say "type 1" because there are few-to-medium hit frequencies, but quite strong. "Type 3" are boards where there are many medium-to-very-strong hits. I think on J88 suited there are few hits but they hit quite strong in the hit range (JJ, 88, AJ, KJ, Td9d, AdKd/AdQd).

    I agree, I've few J and fewer 8 in my range. But I've many (medium-ish because open-bet but no C-Bet on the flop?) pairs, strong broadway and medium-to-strong draw. I would guess he is on the same range, but mine is a bit stronger (see the analysis for my whole range analysis). But yes, board texture helps for semi-bluff.

    And agree with you: no bluff. They are almost never folding, even 3rd pair on a board with 4 suited cards :P
    1BlackChip wrote: »
    Villain can easily rep something that hits here and you'd probably fold?
    It really depends on Villain. Here I'm facing a tight passive straightforward. If he bets, he is ahead of me and I will fold. But against a tricky or loose/active player, I may call (against broadway bluff).
    @Red

    A Set is more disguised since it is made with a PP so it's less visible and obvious when you hit the flop.

    A Trips is like in your example where you hold 8x and two eights are on the board.
    Haaaa ok! Thanks.
    So we have a lack of vocabulary in French: both are under the same name "brelan".
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,647 ✭✭✭✭
    I think it's a Brelan or a Triple no ?
  • JonasJonas Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    Regarding sets vs trips, it also doesn't help that in Super System I guess they used to call them "a set of trips". But @Adam Wheeler gave you the breakdown so you'll be fine.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭✭
    I think it's a Brelan or a Triple no ?

    Never heard of "triple"
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭✭
    And if anyone else has an opinion on the Turn bet, it's welcome :)
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 579 ✭✭✭
    This is madness.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭✭
    Yosh wrote: »
    This is madness.

    Eventually you could elaborate? :)
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 579 ✭✭✭
    The stacks after the straddle are what 20bb effective? How will you ever find a profit with 33 from up front at that depth?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭✭
    Yosh wrote: »
    The stacks after the straddle are what 20bb effective? How will you ever find a profit with 33 from up front at that depth?

    Here were my thoughts:
    - They have no ideas about the real affect of straddle on stacks (reducing the effective BB). They play their hand for a certain amount, not for a 4X opening. In extenso, I was expecting a lot of fold with a 2050ft opening-bet because their thought would be "Nobody bets so much with less than ~99+".
    - If there is a call, I expected the calling range to still be pretty wide (in comparison to a normal calling range in this situation), i.e. with a lot of broadway, SC, and AX; when 33 are not too bad.
    - Also I don't expect to be 3betted - I never saw a 3-bet on a Mississippi here. If so (bad surprise), it's only with a very strong premium hand.

    I agree tho, I wouldn't play like that at another place.

    No?
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,647 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    All your answers are in your own thought process. You counterfeit yourself actually.
    Red wrote: »
    They play their hand for a certain amount, not for a 4X opening. In extenso, I was expecting a lot of fold with a 2050ft opening-bet because their thought would be "Nobody bets so much with less than ~99+".

    So when they call you they actually have you beat pretty often. They actually got something. The board is not scary to them and after the money invested i think they'll be a lot more inclined to call with that board because of their playing style nature as you described them.
    Red wrote: »
    - If there is a call, I expected the calling range to still be pretty wide (in comparison to a normal calling range in this situation)

    How is that logical with what you just said before ?
    Red wrote: »
    - Also I don't expect to be 3betted - I never saw a 3-bet on a Mississippi here. If so (bad surprise), it's only with a very strong premium hand.

    So in fact they will call with a stronger middling range which beats you here.

    Don't try to bluff players that are inelastic and call lightly and stick when hit any pieces of the board. Find hands that have equity and chance to draw/redraw and put them in a though spot, when you'll have good FE and Equity.



  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    Ho, sorry, I gave less information here about the poker room / table than in the other hand analysis I've posted. For me my assumptions are (at least seem) in order; I understand now how it could look as counterfeit.
    I hope it helps to understand me better. Be it to support me or to correct me - please correct me if needed.
    • Most of people are loose-passive (blatantly) straightforward player. They will give action with a extremely wide range preflop.
    • This for sick prices: easily at least 5-handed after a 12X opening from UTG/EP (and 7-10X opening are casual). Or from LP - as many of them limp and a majority of them will call. But they have critical point (pain threshold) where they will stop calling; this will be again a 1200-1300 ft opening (or ~25BB). Against such raise, the eventual 1st caller will do it with a tighter range ; not a tight range, but a tighter than the usual monster wide range. (Also if there is a first caller some will call very lightly after him, down to 52s).
    • Preflop, they don't count on BB, but on amount of florins (currency).
    • 3-bets are rare, and even by tripling the opening you find usually 1-2 caller.
    • They play both straddle and Mississippi straddle. When it's usual than someone raise the straddle (to iso or for value), it's very rare against a Mississippi. This because BUT can choose the amount of the Mississippi, which can be between 3X and, when tilted, all-in. Usually a Mississippi is 5X, but not rare it goes to 7X or 10X.
    • They are not aware of position or range.
    • Postflop, they will play blatantly straightforward and will almost always donkbet with TP+ . They will bet 1 street with TP bad kicker / middle pair, 3 streets with 2P+, and 2-3street with TP good kicker.

    So my opening was too use the pain threshold at his maximum, breaking their inelasticity with a huge amount: 2050 ft is very rare and says very strong / strong hand. I know we are playing with 20BB effective and I'm only doing a 4X opening, but they don't. So I expect to win the hand immediately a large chunk of the time (=good FE)
    If called, as I expect to face a wide (tighter than usual but still wide) range, where 33 can still perform (even if this Villain will have a stronger medium-ish range than others and will be ahead of 33). (=Enough of Equity against the casual player here?)
    Also again, a "so big" opening doesn't look like 33 in their eyes but way stronger. Which still can give me credit for a "bet-fold".

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