Tough River Spot After Board Double Pairs

foxxxerfoxxxer Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
$350 buy-in live tourney, blinds 600/1200, 300 ante
Hero is close to biggest stack at table with ~80K, V is around ~60K

V is middle aged white guy but doesn't have that "older nit white guy" vibe. He's been relatively selective about what hands he plays but notably aggressive during hands, frequently picking up pots with (IMO) well-timed bets and without a lot of showdown or running well. Essentially a classic TAG.

Hero has :AS::JC: in CO. One limper, Hero raises to 3700, V calls from BB, limper calls.

Flop (~14K): :QH::JD::5D:
Checks around

Turn (~14K): :JH:
V bets 4500, call, Hero raises to 12K, V calls, fold

River (~43K): :QC:
V bets 20K. Hero?

The bet size on the turn is very small, but in live tourneys that just seems to be what people do so I don't see it as "intentionally" small. Ditto for river which is less than half pot but I think was intended as a large bet. In general the betting in larger pots is always disproportionately small as people are either unaware of pot odds or of the pot size.

Anyway at the table I tried really hard not to fall into the trap of "I have a full house, therefore I call" when in reality my hand is not much more than a bluff catcher. There are very few value hands except for a Q and a bunch of missed draws.

Are there enough bluffs here to call? We only need to be right 24% of the time so maybe I'm overthinking it, but I think in general people just don't have a ton of river bluffs.

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you don't think he's bluffing a missed fd than cry fold. My initial thought was too call but your right its just a bluff catcher hand. Try and pick up on some live tells and probably fold. He's risking half his stack and you only put in about 25% of yours.

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