Bet on the river????

Ray KRay K Red Chipper Posts: 139 ✭✭
Only 3 hands on opponent at this point. CR this river to a river bet that makes no sense?
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $2(BB)
UTG ($260.5)
HJ ($198)
CO ($484.8)
BTN ($36.35)
SB ($200)
HERO ($320.7)

Dealt to Hero J:club: 9:heart:

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $5 (Rem. Stack: 193), CO Folds, BTN Calls $5 (Rem. Stack: 31.35), SB Folds, HERO Calls $3 (Rem. Stack: 315.7)

Flop ($16) 8:club: 5:diamond: Q:spade:
HERO Checks, HJ Checks, BTN Checks

Turn ($16) 8:club: 5:diamond: Q:spade: 5:spade:
HERO Bets $10 (Rem. Stack: 305.7), HJ Calls $10 (Rem. Stack: 183), BTN Calls $10 (Rem. Stack: 21.35)

River ($46) 8:club: 5:diamond: Q:spade: 5:spade: 7:club:
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $22 (Rem. Stack: 161), BTN Folds, HERO Folds

HJ wins $65.7

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    I think that there are lots of questions that need to be answered well before the question in your title post and your opening line.

    1) Why are you calling here pre-flop?
    2) What's your plan for making this a +EV play instead of a call-and-hope-that-I-crush-the-flop move?
    3) What do you think that HJ n could have with his pre-flop range?
    4) Who has range advantage pre-flop?
    5) What is the purpose of your turn bet?
    6) What is each of the V's range after calling on the turn?
    7) Who has range advantage after the turn bet and calls?
    8) What hands are likely to call any river bet that you would make?
    9) What does your river check indicate about your hand?
    10) Do you think that HJ is betting with a value range or a polarized range?
    11) Would a 3-bet on your part be believable? What hands does it bluff out? And does it bluff it out to make it profitable?
    12) Finally, and most importantly: are you really sure that HJ's river bet "makes no sense"???

    I think that you're looking at a single decision point at the end of a hand trying to figure out how to take a poorly played hand and come away with money rather than evaluating how/why you got to that point in the first place. Rather than focusing on how to somehow turn your mistake into profit (and looking for a justification to do that), you'd be better off, I suggest respectfully, focusing on eliminating that mistake instead.
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    edited April 2017
    i would focus on your own play rather than focusing on what the HJ did. to answer your question... the story wouldn't add up if you CR the river.
    your Preflop and flop play we can say are pretty standard.
    when the second 5 comes on the turn, you lead out. do you have many 5's in your range here? im going to assume very few. so what is your intention when you lead out turn?
    the turn adds no equity to hero.
    also you probably had no thought process on what you were to do on the river if your turn bet was called.
    on the river you check. are you leading out if you had made your straight? you probably are. so when you check, it shows that you def don't have a hand good enough to bet for value.
    lets say you did have trip 5's. even if you had that the CR on the river wouldn't be smart. because the only hands that are calling are ones that beat yours except maybe AQ. and the only hands the Villain folds are the ones you beat that you would want a call from.

    this whole hand was played pretty badly. you don't rep any strength at all on the river.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    Unless you have BIG skill edge this is fold preflop.

    I wouldn't lead turn with total air into 2 other players as a general idea, and even more so in this spot. Because people have stronger XB ranges on rainbow fops, and the 5 hits both player check back ranges.

    I am not really sure what I think of HJ's range on river with this line as it is a bit weird but I could see some big hands get really trappy some of the time(QQ, A5s) but no matter how exactly you want to range him he really shouldn't be too weak beating into 2 players.
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    edited April 2017
    kenaces wrote: »
    Unless you have BIG skill edge this is fold preflop.
    .
    this is false. J9o is a perfectly good hand to call preflop with in this case. Hero only has to call $3 in a $13 pot.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    Justin wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    Unless you have BIG skill edge this is fold preflop.
    .
    this is false. J9o is a perfectly good hand to call preflop with in this case. Hero only has to call $3 in a $13 pot.

    I have very big database of players that shows otherwise. Calling too much in blinds with weak B-way hands in multiway is common leak I have found in many players games.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    kenaces wrote: »
    Justin wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    Unless you have BIG skill edge this is fold preflop.
    .
    this is false. J9o is a perfectly good hand to call preflop with in this case. Hero only has to call $3 in a $13 pot.

    I have very big database of players that shows otherwise. Calling too much in blinds with weak B-way hands in multiway is common leak I have found in many players games.

    Exactly. Unless you hit the flop big AND paid off -- both of which are unlikely -- then you're spewing money. With a small raise like this, people will often call with just about anything. Top pair is almost never enough to win -- unless it's essentially checked down except for a small river bet somewhere.

    There are two other negative outcomes that outweigh the remote possibility that you flop a straight AND get paid off.

    1) You flop a straight draw. Then you make the classic check-raise on the flop. But, because you have been calling down light in places like this, you have been check-raising more heavily with draws. Thus, your C/R doesn't get credibility, and you don't have your fold equity. That's a long way of saying that you hand balance is off.

    2) Say that the flop is J95 and the turn remains a 5. If it's a big pot, then I guarantee that someone has a 5, and you get stacked. Why? Because any V could easily be calling with any two cards. If there is meaningful pre-flop raising and action, then it's still possible that one of the Vs has a 5, but the likelihood is much lower -- you can range opponents better. By being in this pot, you're entering a situation where you are playing your cards and board but can't really play the Vs' cards and range: they are too wide open.

    That being said, there might be reasons to enter the pot. Maybe you have a huge post-flop play edge. Maybe one of the Vs has a huge leak where he'll call down any flop and turn and fold to almost any river bet. Maybe the Vs are slightly drunk and like to see a flop but fold unless they hit big. That's why my first question was, "Why are you calling here pre-flop?"

    I don't think that saying that "well, there's already $10 in the pot so I might as well put in $3 more to see a flop" is a sufficiently compelling answer. It's just burning money.
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    Let me know if I got it @kenaces @moishetreats
    Basically with a hand like J9o or similar. It's going to be a hit or miss flop. It has a much bigger chance of missing than connecting. But when it does connect, it's not going to be that far ahead most times? Am I right so far?
    And when it does hit big, it won't get a lot of action if at all. Maybe just 1 street of value?
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    I will start with I don't know why but I am happy to speculate :)

    All the above reasons make sense, and you also have to consider how often will you be able to steal and win the pot without showdown on some future street with J9o in a multiway pot? likely not enough.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Justin wrote: »
    Let me know if I got it @kenaces @moishetreats
    Basically with a hand like J9o or similar. It's going to be a hit or miss flop. It has a much bigger chance of missing than connecting. But when it does connect, it's not going to be that far ahead most times? Am I right so far?
    And when it does hit big, it won't get a lot of action if at all. Maybe just 1 street of value?

    Essentially, yes. Others might have a different experience, but that is what I have found in particular in an unraised or slightly raised pot since opponents could realistically have any two cards (except for monsters, of course).
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    Specific hand is probably a fold since you're up against two in position players and it's offsuit, but I think it's close and certainly worth thinking hard about. Remember that you only have to best -$2 on average by playing. In general though, this hand might fall into the category of soft poker as described by @persuadeo. You're passively taking a pretty good price to see if you can make something happen post. You'll end up touching the flop sometimes and playing mostly defensive lines, or making small ball bluffs out of position with little equity. So it goes defending the big blind.
  • Ray KRay K Red Chipper Posts: 139 ✭✭
    wow.. honestly ,I didnt think ill get so much advice from the people here, thanks you.
    I really appreciate it.

  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Ray K wrote: »
    wow.. honestly ,I didnt think ill get so much advice from the people here, thanks you.
    I really appreciate it.

    I'm not surprised by this. There are plenty of very strong players on this site--many of which, I wouldn't want at my table!
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    After reading through the responses, I think it's fairly clear that this hand can be folded preflop. The HJ has $200 and the BTN has $36. So, like @moishetreats mentioned, you're playing to smash a flop--which is really f'n hard. Mainly because the BTN has $36--you're not going to be able to bluff this player--which may cause this pot to become protected--meaning, best made hand will win most of the time. I would say that if both of these players had a stack like yours ($300), then you can call this hand preflop. But, I think $200 is probably too small, and $36 is definitely too small.

    For the reasons above, I don't think trying to stab on the turn is a good option either.

  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    Thinking of raising here on the river w/o a solid read is FPS.

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