What Is The Optimal Play?

morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 187 ✭✭
MD Live, Fish Friday at 5PM $2/$5

I am seated at a table that I had participated in its opening 2 hours earlier. There has been very little if any PF 3-betting and no one has gotten out-of-line so to speak. About 75-80% of the pots have been opened with a raise pre-flop for $15 or $20.

I have no history with the Villain. I am taking shots at moving up to $2/$5. (cue Eminem-Lose Yourself)

The villain appears to be a regular. He is a white male, around 35ish years old. He started with the maximum stack of $600 and is up to $850. He is glued to his phone and not paying attention to the players. He has opened to $20 approximately 5x’s in the 2 hours played and limped probably 5x’s. Of his opens I’ve seen 2 showdowns. One showdown he had pocket 9’s and didn’t c-bet w/ a K on the flop and a jack on the river and 2 callers in the pot. He was OOP. It was checked down. Another time I think he may have had 2 suited broad way cards. He doesn’t seem like he is into bluffing or being aggressive.

Hero/I am a 46 year old white male who is very good looking, minus the short fat balding issue. I started with $450 and am up to $1,400. I have been somewhat active. Early on when the table started I 3 bet all in on the flop, isolating a short stacker that had gone all in for $175 into a $135 pot. I had an OESD with a Q high flush draw. I spiked a Q on the river and took it down. Another hand I had good implied odds and pot odds (5.5:1)to call a min. 3 bet on the turn with pocket KK. The board was QQ59R. I spiked the K on the river and C/R all in for a $1,300 pot.

Pre-flop; the villain (UTG+1, $850 eff.) opens to his consistent $20. I put him on a range of 77+, KJs+. Hero calls with :3d:3h ($1,400 eff,) and there are 3 other callers (CO,B,SB). Pot is $95 (-$5 for rake and simplicity).

Flop is :As:2d:2h and is checked around. (pot=$95)

Turn is a :3s . SB leads for $65. Villain calls (pot=$225) and Hero re-raises to $250. (pot=$475) SB folds and villain 3-bet to $410 (pot=$820,V=$420, H=$1,130) $160 for Hero to call.

What is the optimal play?

It is recommended that I wait for 7 days until giving the hand results? Can we/ you all wait that long? A special thanks to Persuadeo. http://persuadeo.nl/hand-histories/

Comments

  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    call.
    a 4 bet might fold out any big hands V might have that hero would want value from.

    and you dont have to wait 7 days to post results. thats a bit of time. it all depends on how good the discussion is. minimum i would wait 2 or 3 days and if it turns into a healthy discussion then maybe a few days more.
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    He's put in half his stack. He isn't going anywhere. I jam here. I wouldn't want AK or AQ to fold to a spade (or possibly a 4 or 5) on the river.
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    Skors3 wrote: »
    He's put in half his stack. He isn't going anywhere. I jam here. I wouldn't want AK or AQ to fold to a spade (or possibly a 4 or 5) on the river.

    I agree. Ignore my previous post when I said call. Lol.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    Skors3 wrote: »
    He's put in half his stack. He isn't going anywhere. I jam here. I wouldn't want AK or AQ to fold to a spade (or possibly a 4 or 5) on the river.
    Let's review the action:

    UTG+1 raises pre
    Hero calls
    CO calls
    But calls
    SB calls
    Flop A 2 2
    SB checks
    UTG+1 checks....
    what is he checking here?
    you think he's checking AK, AQ?
    You think he's afraid of the 2 2?
    I don't.
    Everybody else checks.

    Turn 3
    Board now A 2 2 3
    SB bets
    UTG+1 smooth calls
    Hero raises
    Fold
    Fold
    Fold
    Fold
    UTG+1 THREE-bets
    what is he 3-betting here that he checked on the flop?
    54?
    A2?
    23?
    I doubt it.

    Hero is representing a straight at the very minimum!
    And V re-raised!
    Shouldn't AK/AQ be afraid that Hero has a str8 or boat?

    I hate to be MUBSy... but this looks like AA in my games.
    His turn/call/small reraise it usually the nuts here.
    If he's not bluffing or playing aggro...
    I don't see him raising in EP with A2 or 23 or 54s here.

    I think shoving here is bad.
    I'm probably calling and folding river shoves.
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 187 ✭✭
    It seems that the consensus is to “call”. So by calling should I be concerned that the villain will actualize his equity? Any card in the deck other than a 3 could potentially be a scare card for me. At this point the only hand that I am beat with is AA being that I have discounted villain holding 22.

    I had the vibe that if I called I was being set up for a river shove. If I am going to call and fold to a river shove then why not just fold now? What incentive do I have to continue? Is it because I am getting 5.2:1 to call the 3-bet and I may spike the case 3?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    I am taking shots at moving up to $2/$5. (cue Eminem-Lose Yourself)

    LOL. Are you sure that this is right mindset, though? Funny, yes, but is this your approach to taking a shot at 2/5?
    The villain appears to be a regular... He is glued to his phone and not paying attention to the players.

    Careful with this presumption...
    Pre-flop; the villain (UTG+1, $850 eff.) opens to his consistent $20. I put him on a range of 77+, KJs+. Hero calls with :3d:3h ($1,400 eff,)

    I thought that V had $850 preflop. How is the effective stack size now $1,400?

    I'm still debating the call vs. shove debate going on here. My initial thought was to shove, but @kagey brings up some good points...

  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 187 ✭✭
    My starting stack is $1,400 and my position is UTG+3. Villains starting stack is $850 and his position is UTG+1.
  • JonasJonas Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    My starting stack is $1,400 and my position is UTG+3. Villains starting stack is $850 and his position is UTG+1.

    Think of "Effective stack" as "this is how much can be won/lost". So in this case, the effective stack is $850 since you can't get more from him from it (or lose more). So you "effectively" have $850.
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    Skors3 wrote: »

    I think shoving here is bad.
    I'm probably calling and folding river shoves.

    Is V all of a sudden going to check the nuts on the river?
    If hero calls Turn, hero needs to be calling river to.
    Hero decision needs to be made on turn. Either fold or jam.
    Like @kagey said, it does look alot like V has aces here.
    If hero can find a fold here I think it's justified.

    I, myself would'nt fold here but that's just me. I wouldn't want to fold and find out I was ahead. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    It seems that the consensus is to “call”. So by calling should I be concerned that the villain will actualize his equity?
    what do you mean by actualize his equity?
    do you think he's folding if you shove?
    he 3-bet the turn....
    I don't think he's folding.
    nor do I think you have any fold equity.
    he's getting to the river... unless we fold now
    there's no reason to think that he's not realizing his full equity... since he's probably realized it already!
    Any card in the deck other than a 3 could potentially be a scare card for me. At this point the only hand that I am beat with is AA being that I have discounted villain holding 22.
    how can any card other than a 3 be a scare card?
    are you folding if a K comes? any :SPADE: ?
    you've got a boat.
    the only true scare card for us is a 2. or an A.

    there comes a time in the hand when we have to stop ranging our V and making up hands that he may have that can beat us.
    at this point - there's no way on earth he's got 44-KK
    so if a J, Q or K comes on the river.... it would be ridiculous for us to put him on a bigger set. his range is locked in now.
    there really aren't many scare cards for our hand.

    if he was a maniac, we might put him on a FD... but our boat beats a FD... unless you put him specifically on :2S::4S: and you're scared he's going to make a straight flush.
    there are no real scare cards.
    if an Ace comes - we fold. if a 2 comes, we fold.
    if :5S: comes, whatever...
    otherwise I don't see why you want to shove to avoid "scare cards"

    I had the vibe that if I called I was being set up for a river shove. If I am going to call and fold to a river shove then why not just fold now? What incentive do I have to continue? Is it because I am getting 5.2:1 to call the 3-bet and I may spike the case 3?
    looks that way to me too.
    I considered a fold... but it just felt too damn nitty.
    but maybe it's the right play.
    if you call - V has got to put you on a str8 or boat.
    if he's got neither, he's checking the river.
    it's known as the game of 5th street chicken... and sometimes it's the only thing you can do in a situation.
    since you've got position, you can see what V does on the river and re-evaluate.

    let's go thru what we beat:
    23, A2, 2X, 45, any FD

    now it doesn't make sense that he opens from EP with 23, 2X or 45.
    He could have :KS::QS: ... but it doesn't make sense he's trying to get it all in on a paired board.
    So what are we left with?
    A2s... one combo of that left... :AC::2C:

    now what beats us?
    AA, 22
    how many combos of that are left?
    3 combos of AA, 1 combo of 22 (which we can reduce to ½ combo since it's unlikely he raises in EP with 22)
    total: 3.5 combos

    should we fold?
    truth is... I don't know why the hell we were raising the turn!
    what were we thinking?
    are we always looking to play our hand face-up?
    what are we getting value from?
    are guys in this game so dense that they're never folding 45 here?
    wait, SB did fold...
    sorry, I digress

    so, should we fold?
    re-reading your description of V... it seems that he's a thinking player that checks down when he thinks he could be beat... would he check down A2cc? I dunno.
    I hate folding as V could have made a crazy move with some tricky 2X hand
    45 or :AC::3C: (although not very likely)
    and don't want to give it up yet.

    BTW I also don't understand how V can 3-bet to 410.
    If SB bet 65, and we raised to 250... meaning we raised it 185.
    UTG+1 must raise it at least 185 more for it to be a legitimate bet (unless he's all in)
    So his min-raise must be 435.... 185 more to us.
    no?
    (if SB made it 90... then the math works out)

    Anyway...
    if you agree with my read - and you can see V's hand more clearly here... then, I guess - yeah, folding is better than wishing for a 1 outer.
    but - I like to be REALLY sure that V's crushing me before I fold a boat.
    (Damn that Zeebo!)
    besides, we only have to call 160 instead of the real-world 185 to see the river....

    So I'd call and see what V does.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    I think villain has made some range splitting errors. The call turn / back raise line contains zero bluffs and no hands worse than yours. A2s is an unlikely hand given position and villain description. If he did manage to raise it preflop he has incentive to bet the flop and build a big pot multi-way against other aces and deuces. 54s is also unlikely for the same preflop reasons as A2s, with the additional reason that it would probably bet the flop as a bluff. If he did check and spike the turn, he would be likely to raise SBs probe to protect against spades and get value with you sitting behind him. So the hands you most likely beat he most likely doesn't have anymore. Beware of opponents making odd raises where they can't logically represent bluffs. I would fold now if you had a time machine.
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 187 ✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    It seems that the consensus is to “call”. So by calling should I be concerned that the villain will actualize his equity?
    what do you mean by actualize his equity?
    do you think he's folding if you shove?
    he 3-bet the turn....
    I don't think he's folding.
    nor do I think you have any fold equity.
    he's getting to the river... unless we fold now
    there's no reason to think that he's not realizing his full equity... since he's probably realized it already!
    Any card in the deck other than a 3 could potentially be a scare card for me. At this point the only hand that I am beat with is AA being that I have discounted villain holding 22.
    how can any card other than a 3 be a scare card?
    are you folding if a K comes? any :SPADE: ?
    you've got a boat.
    the only true scare card for us is a 2. or an A.

    there comes a time in the hand when we have to stop ranging our V and making up hands that he may have that can beat us.
    at this point - there's no way on earth he's got 44-KK
    so if a J, Q or K comes on the river.... it would be ridiculous for us to put him on a bigger set. his range is locked in now.
    there really aren't many scare cards for our hand.

    if he was a maniac, we might put him on a FD... but our boat beats a FD... unless you put him specifically on :2S::4S: and you're scared he's going to make a straight flush.
    there are no real scare cards.
    if an Ace comes - we fold. if a 2 comes, we fold.
    if :5S: comes, whatever...
    otherwise I don't see why you want to shove to avoid "scare cards"

    I had the vibe that if I called I was being set up for a river shove. If I am going to call and fold to a river shove then why not just fold now? What incentive do I have to continue? Is it because I am getting 5.2:1 to call the 3-bet and I may spike the case 3?
    looks that way to me too.
    I considered a fold... but it just felt too damn nitty.
    but maybe it's the right play.
    if you call - V has got to put you on a str8 or boat.
    if he's got neither, he's checking the river.
    it's known as the game of 5th street chicken... and sometimes it's the only thing you can do in a situation.
    since you've got position, you can see what V does on the river and re-evaluate.

    let's go thru what we beat:
    23, A2, 2X, 45, any FD

    now it doesn't make sense that he opens from EP with 23, 2X or 45.
    He could have :KS::QS: ... but it doesn't make sense he's trying to get it all in on a paired board.
    So what are we left with?
    A2s... one combo of that left... :AC::2C:

    now what beats us?
    AA, 22
    how many combos of that are left?
    3 combos of AA, 1 combo of 22 (which we can reduce to ½ combo since it's unlikely he raises in EP with 22)
    total: 3.5 combos

    should we fold?
    truth is... I don't know why the hell we were raising the turn!
    what were we thinking?
    are we always looking to play our hand face-up?
    what are we getting value from?
    are guys in this game so dense that they're never folding 45 here?
    wait, SB did fold...
    sorry, I digress

    so, should we fold?
    re-reading your description of V... it seems that he's a thinking player that checks down when he thinks he could be beat... would he check down A2cc? I dunno.
    I hate folding as V could have made a crazy move with some tricky 2X hand
    45 or :AC::3C: (although not very likely)
    and don't want to give it up yet.

    BTW I also don't understand how V can 3-bet to 410.
    If SB bet 65, and we raised to 250... meaning we raised it 185.
    UTG+1 must raise it at least 185 more for it to be a legitimate bet (unless he's all in)
    So his min-raise must be 435.... 185 more to us.
    no?
    (if SB made it 90... then the math works out)

    Anyway...
    if you agree with my read - and you can see V's hand more clearly here... then, I guess - yeah, folding is better than wishing for a 1 outer.
    but - I like to be REALLY sure that V's crushing me before I fold a boat.
    (Damn that Zeebo!)
    besides, we only have to call 160 instead of the real-world 185 to see the river....

    So I'd call and see what V does.

    Kagey, thank you very much for your input. It is greatly appreciated!

    The betting action on the turn is accurate as I described. SB bet $65, UTG+1 calls, I raise to $250, SB folds and UTG+1 3-bets to $410. I had thought that was an incorrect bet size but at the time I had other things to figure out than to question the raise. I understood/ took it as villain basically min-raising.
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 187 ✭✭
    This is the river card:
    : :Ac
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 187 ✭✭
    ouchey, I messed up that "spoiler". shows what a rookie poster I am. I'll get it right next time.
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 187 ✭✭
    Villain showed AdAh on the river. Not only for the 1,800+ pot but for the $500 every 10 minute high-hand promotion.

    Kagey nailed it from the get go as I had expected that he would. Smarty pants! This was kind of an easy one but the main problem that I had was what to do on the turn?

    I nailed villain down to having AA, AK, and possibly AQ. If I would have just asked myself “what would I do in this situation if I had AA”. Then my cards would have hit the muck on the 3-bet turn.

    The “min. raise” was the clue that should have sent the sirens off and I should have questioned as to why the min.-raise. The dreaded min.-raise…when you know that you are beat.

    We all have made the play that villain did. We all have flopped the world only to check and allow our opponent to gain some equity. I feel/ felt like a dumbass that I didn’t see it more clearly for what it was.

    Playing at 170BB effective I think this may have leaned on the side of a judgement play. Had it been deeper stacks, say 300BB eff., then maybe it would have been a clearer fold.

    By the way, I shoved on the turn. I was thinking it was 50/50 that he had AA. If he had AK or AQ he was going to pay to “actualize his equity”. Is this referred to “denying him equity”?

    I am told “we all make mistakes” in poker. This was one of mine.

    Everyone's input was and is very much appreciated by me. Thank you all!
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 187 ✭✭
    Kagey, you had wrote "truth is... I don't know why the hell we were raising the turn!"

    So do you feel that I should not have raised the turn? If so, I would have to respectfully disagree.

    I do not have the correct terminology here but:

    1. worse hands will not catch up on the cheap
    2. I can range my opponents hands better (which I did a piss poor job of doing)
    3. I have the 3rd best hand, why wouldn't I want to get max. value if I'm ahead.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So do you feel that I should not have raised the turn? If so, I would have to respectfully disagree.

    it's okay.
    you'll learn.
    1. worse hands will not catch up on the cheap
    worse hands will NOT catch up, period.
    2. I can range my opponents hands better (which I did a piss poor job of doing)
    you don't need to "range your opponents"
    you've got a hammer-lock on the hand.
    3. I have the 3rd best hand, why wouldn't I want to get max. value if I'm ahead.
    because you're NOT getting max value by folding out worse hands.
    In fact, other than AA or A2... you're probably getting zero value by raising here.

    raising here folds out ALL worse hands.
    It folds out AK, AQ, AJ & AT. (who can only catch up with an A... 2 outs.)
    It folds out pocket pairs (who only have 2 outs to beat you)
    It folds out FDs. (who can never catch up unless they have a straight flush draw - 1 out)
    And depending on the sizing, it can fold out 54. (who's drawing dead)

    I don't know what you're trying to "protect" your hand from, but you're sooooooo far ahead.... this is one time you can slow-play for one street.

    Raising here tells everybody at the table that you've got a monster.
    Only 2X should call here... and even that may fold figuring that you're already nutted and they have 3 outs to catch up.

    I would smooth-call the turn.
    I want my opponents to stay in the hand and "catch up."
    And since you're in position, raise the river.
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 187 ✭✭
    I had said that I should have folded the turn on the min. re-raise but the more I think about it that would be a very exploitative play on my part. I don't want to set myself up for future min. raise exploitation.

    Perhaps call the min. re-raise and evaluate on the river as you had suggested earlier in this thread. Being that I had re-raised the turn and not just called.

    Also, the more I think about it I don't feel my turn re-raise was playing my hand face up. At least not completely. What about if I was bluffing? People bluff and this play for sure could look like that to anyone holding an ace. Would $250 into a $225 pot not look like a bluff being the pot was checked around on the flop. On the turn the small blind bet 2/3 pot and UTG+1 just called. By UTG+1 just calling and having 3 other players to act behind tells me he could get away from his hand or he has a monster. Unfortunately for me it was the latter. They could possibly have a hand like A5s, AK,AQ, KK, QQ, JJ and they may feel that I'm bluffing. The turn was a 3. So if you have any ace what do you put me on? 33 and only 33? It wouldn't be AA. A bluff perhaps?



  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Also, the more I think about it I don't feel my turn re-raise was playing my hand face up. At least not completely. What about if I was bluffing? People bluff and this play for sure could look like that to anyone holding an ace.
    The thing is... you RAISED the turn.
    The only bluffs you have in your range would be flush draws - since the 3 is :3S: ... putting two spades out there.
    Since the A was a :SPADE: ... that would mean that you have a K-high or Q-high flush.
    I guess that's possible... KQss, KJss, KTss & QJss, QTss... mostly broadways.
    Maybe add some suited connectors.

    But it seems very, very weird that you would raise/bluff after the SB bet and OR (UTG+1) called. It's very rare to see someone squeeze the turn bet with one card to come! I mean, why would you do that? Who's folding an A or 2 there?

    [You see that play made on the flop - so that the raiser can see 2 free cards... the turn and the river.]
    But in this hand, raising there without a str8 or boat is suicidal.
    If you were bluffing... why wouldn't you have bluffed the flop when everybody's checking?
    Most Aces bet the flop.
    Most FD just call the turn bet - in order to realize their equity.
    SB makes it 65.
    If you had a FD, wouldn't you rather pay $65 than $250 to see the river?

    Sorry, doesn't make sense.
    As @Yosh pointed out - when folks are raising and re-raising on this board.... there are no true bluffs possible.

    Since you're not the PFR - I doubt you have AA. So you either have 23, A2, 45 or 33 when you raise the turn. It's kind of hand-reading 101.

    Nobody bluff raises the SB bet AND UTG+1 call... with TWO players left to act behind on this board in a LL game!

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