Would you call off here in this middle stage spot?

OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
edited April 2017 in Tournament Poker Hands
$240 buy in at Poker Night in America stop at Choctaw Casino in OK
t15k starting stack, 30 min levels
272 entries
~90 players remain, 30 pay

Level 13, 200/600/1200, 10 handed
UTG (22k) opens for 2500
UTG+2 (50k) calls
SB (15k) calls
BB Hero (20k) calls with :Qc:Td

Flop (12k) :Th:8h:2d
SB check
BB checks
UTG shoves 20k pretty quickly
UTG +2 calls after short deliberation
SB calls all in for less
Hero???

Reads
No strong reads as I had recently been moved to this table, but here's what I had seen so far:
UTG no reads, had been fairly quiet
UTG +2 pretty splashy. Has already shown up with some pretty speculative hands and a tendency to call light
SB playing close to 50% of hands. Open limping and limp folding, complaining about his bad luck.
Hero--new to the table hand haven't played any hands of note, so not much on me.

My reads:
UTG my first thought was overpair, but it's quite the overbet and was done quickly
UTG +2 despite his history, I put him on a tighter range being in this early position and both blinds still to act
SB practically irrelevant
Hero: I thought it would be stupid to call off for my tournament with top pair medium kicker after so much strength shown.

Comments

  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    I'm guessing you would have won though that's why your posting?
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭✭
    Fold pre. Fold flop. You don't have enough blinds to be seeing flops with dominated hands.
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
  • SliverOverlordSliverOverlord Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    I strongly disagree with @ninjah about preflop. Hero is in BB and is getting great odds to defend, especially with a splashy player in the pot. Folding here when you have to call 1300 to win a 12k pot would be an absolute crime. Yea domination will happen but that isn't garunteed. But once the flop comes and you face a shove and call, the chances that top pair 3rd kicker is good against an UTG shove is relatively low. Best case scenario it's JT or a heart draw, but Overpairs and better TPs are too likely. Fold the flop and move to the next hand.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    There is nothing really wrong with a fold pre at this stage of the tournament you are only going all the way on a few very specific flops
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭✭
    I strongly disagree with @ninjah about preflop. Hero is in BB and is getting great odds to defend, especially with a splashy player in the pot. Folding here when you have to call 1300 to win a 12k pot would be an absolute crime. Yea domination will happen but that isn't garunteed. But once the flop comes and you face a shove and call, the chances that top pair 3rd kicker is good against an UTG shove is relatively low. Best case scenario it's JT or a heart draw, but Overpairs and better TPs are too likely. Fold the flop and move to the next hand.

    You state that overpairs and better top pairs are likely but you disagree with folding pre just because of the odds. What were you hoping to hit that's good against UTG's range here? A nut straight? I don't know about you, but when I have 16bb left in a tourney I'm in reshove mode. This would be a defend against a CO or Btn open but I'd much rather preserve my stack in this situation rather than play a junky hand short stacked from out of position against a UTG raise.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    pot is 10,700, it's 1300 for hero to call
    we're getting 8:1 on our money

    we have more than 16BB
    and an M of 10

    IMO this is a big blind defend all the time
    it's just a little over 1 BB to call - to win nearly 9BBs

    QTos is a top 17% hand.

    what can we flop?
    trips, two pair, straight, :CLUB: flush... and if UTG is raising with AK, AJ, JJ, 99...
    we can have the best hand with just top pair.

    Seems like an easy call pre.
    And an easy fold on the flop.

    In LIVE tournaments, I believe this is a call every time.
    But maybe @Jymaster11 or @Christian Soto might want to chime in?
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Super standard call preflop Yes.
  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    I don't think it's that clear of a call pre. We have to significantly discount our equity from top/middle pair flops as we will be dominated often, and will have to fold to any action that's more than one bet on a flop like this.

    Yes we only need 11% equity but we only flop two pair+ 4.5% of the time. What's still up for debate is whether or not we can realize 7%+ of our remaining equity off top pair flops 4 ways.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    It's 100% call preflop. It's not even close I promise you.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    tripletire wrote: »
    I don't think it's that clear of a call pre. We have to significantly discount our equity from top/middle pair flops as we will be dominated often, and will have to fold to any action that's more than one bet on a flop like this.

    Yes we only need 11% equity but we only flop two pair+ 4.5% of the time. What's still up for debate is whether or not we can realize 7%+ of our remaining equity off top pair flops 4 ways.

    This is my whole argument. Of course we're getting the pot odds to call pre. But how often are we going to hit hard enough on the flop to be happy about getting it in? How often are we going to be able to realize our equity? Every blind is precious at this stage of the tourney and especially for us amateurs, hands like this can put us into trouble spots for our tourney life.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    But sometimes you just Flop a Queen and you win the pot. Those are also significant big blinds you picked up.

    I promise you no Elite players are folding this hand pre-flop. It's just a standard call.

    Will you be in murky spots sometimes, yes. Is that a reason to Fold? No.
  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    It's 100% call preflop. It's not even close I promise you.

    Could you expand?
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    tripletire wrote: »
    It's 100% call preflop. It's not even close I promise you.

    Could you expand?

    You'll win the hand often enough to justify a call preflop.

    We need to win the pot about 1 out of 10 times with two broadway cards in our hand.
    You're just not dominated as often as you think. And even if you are, your equity is still higher than 11%.

    If we can't win this hand 1 in 10 times with two broadway cards then we got problems.
  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    But sometimes you just Flop a Queen and you win the pot. Those are also significant big blinds you picked up.

    Fair point. It should be a fine call, all I know is that it's going to be really hard to realize our equity and we will likely be making very little money. In a lot of cases we will not be making money long term and/or breaking even. What has me swaying towards a fold is that I don't want break even spots when my stack size is healthy on a table it sounds like we have an edge over.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    tripletire wrote: »
    But sometimes you just Flop a Queen and you win the pot. Those are also significant big blinds you picked up.

    Fair point. It should be a fine call, all I know is that it's going to be really hard to realize our equity and we will likely be making very little money. In a lot of cases we will not be making money long term and/or breaking even. What has me swaying towards a fold is that I don't want break even spots when my stack size is healthy on a table it sounds like we have an edge over.

    Part of the edge in MTTs is over defending your BB and forcing your opponents to risk valuable chips to force you off your equity.
    Otherwise, you are making their life easier by folding hands which you know to have higher equity than needed to justify a call.
  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭

    Part of the edge in MTTs is over defending your BB and forcing your opponents to risk valuable chips to force you off your equity.
    Otherwise, you are making their life easier by folding hands which you know to have higher equity than needed to justify a call.

    You are right, and I'm definitely defending this hand vs. a bunch of solid regs. I don't think that applies to a table like this. I think it's fine to pass up slightly +EV spots here, even if that means that our BB defense range multiway is too tight with 16 BBs. I don't see that being a meaningful edge in this situation.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    tripletire wrote: »

    Part of the edge in MTTs is over defending your BB and forcing your opponents to risk valuable chips to force you off your equity.
    Otherwise, you are making their life easier by folding hands which you know to have higher equity than needed to justify a call.

    You are right, and I'm definitely defending this hand vs. a bunch of solid regs. I don't think that applies to a table like this. I think it's fine to pass up slightly +EV spots here, even if that means that our BB defense range multiway is too tight with 16 BBs. I don't see that being a meaningful edge in this situation.

    Fair - As a side note, I tend to defend these spots because of their homerun potential as well. We could just flop it and increase our equity in the tournament.
    Also, if we lose 1BB - it doesn't really change anything for us still.
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    Here is a some background on this hand that fits well into the discussion that has developed...

    I used to be of the camp that would fold this hand in this spot, for the reasons that @Ninjah and @tripletire have already outlined. Over the last year, I have loosened up in spots like this and I am really liking the results, at least in low buy in live tournaments.

    It in the context of this idea of loosening up in preflop spots like this whether that might lead to some looser play postflop, as well. In the hand, I didn't think too much about the fold on the flop, but it got me to thinking whether I might be any looser postflop.

    All the discussion is on preflop...any comments on the close to 2x pot shove by the preflop raiser? Or does that not matter with 2 callers?

  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    @Ninjah and @tripletire What is the minimum number of big blinds that you would want to have in order to feel comfortable calling the 1 BB raise here?
  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    @Outlier At above 20 BBs I'm likely not thinking twice and completing for 1 BB, but I do believe it's a lot closer of a decision below 20.

    With regards to the flop, it's a very clear fold with 2 callers behind the jam. I would fold to UTG's jam w/o callers in this spot as well as he can have a lot of hands that beat us (along with a bunch we beat - his jam screams decent-marginal made hand). I would consider calling if I had a read that he was too loose/over-valued hands often, as he could then be jamming his stronger 8's+ trying to "realize equity" or something.

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