Why did this work?!

mbecks83

Usually play live 1/2 but recently I've been playing some full ring 10nl Zoom to work on a few things and also try some things out, inexpensively.

Apart from the lack of limping, I'd say the games play about the same.

I recently played this hand and would love hear thoughts on why this worked. Partly because I think it will be hugely valuable to me to understand, and partly out of sheer curiosity.

Here it is:

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $12.75
SB: $17.26
BB: $13.28
UTG: $12.30
UTG+1: $9.60
Hero (UTG+2): $18.22
MP1: $9.08
MP2: $18.06
CO: $21.76

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG+2 with :9s :Ts
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, 2 folds, CO raises to $1, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.40) :2c :9h :Qc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.40, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $1.60

Turn: ($8.40) :2s: (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, CO calls $4.50

River: ($17.40) :3s: (2 players)
Hero bets $9.72 all in, CO folds

Final Pot: $17.40
Hero wins $16.62

My 2 cents: the only hand (in his range) that's truly comfortable stacking off for almost 200bbs here is exactly QQ (I block 99 and that's probably not squeezing anyway). All his other possible holdings are 1-pair hands (overpairs included) which he just isn't willing to call down with.

Ninjah

At 10NL, no one is folding AQ here, much less an overpair. I think you were likely up against AK. Now on to the hand....I think you're deep enough to where flatting his 3B is ok but I have no idea what you were trying to accomplish with such a tiny raise. The board pair on the turn is a terrible card for you imo because it cuts down on the number of sets you could have. If you insist on turning your hand into a bluff here for whatever reason, a larger flop raise followed by a turn jam would be more believable.

mbecks83

For the record - I'm making no attempt to justify how I played the hand

Nor am I looking for advice on how to play the hand. I'm just trying to figure out why it worked!

You think he has AK @Ninjah ? I assume this can only be AKcc? Or is my raise on the flop small enough to keep pretty much all AK combos in? And if so, why call 45bb on the turn?

At 10NL, no one is folding AQ here, much less an overpair

Note we are 180bb deep, if that changes anything

Ninjah

mbecks83 wrote: »

For the record - I'm making no attempt to justify how I played the hand

Nor am I looking for advice on how to play the hand. I'm just trying to figure out why it worked!

You think he has AK @Ninjah ? I assume this can only be AKcc? Or is my raise on the flop small enough to keep pretty much all AK combos in? And if so, why call 45bb on the turn?

At 10NL, no one is folding AQ here, much less an overpair

Note we are 180bb deep, if that changes anything

It worked because he didn't have a pair. That's why.

mbecks83

So he calls 45bb on the turn with no pair?
And he always calls three streets with a Q or overpair?
I'm just trying to understand if there's anything I can actually learn from this.

persuadeo

Reflect on how he interprets the turn card, and you will have the answer.

Brandon M

I'd rather see a call on flop than a raise. I think players are for sure calling this raise especially at 10NL as light as JTo which means they never fold any queens or even better 9s on the flop. Then there is just no reason to turn out hand into a bluff, let's get to showdown as cheap as we can. As previously stated no 10nl player is folding AA, KK, AQ, or even KQ. Also the way you played your hand looks like a busted flush draw so I expect some better 9x hands your opponent also calls with. No reason to turn pairs into bluffs at 10NL.

mbecks83

persuadeo wrote: »

Reflect on how he interprets the turn card, and you will have the answer.

I was almost there I think...

I was just about to make an addendum that said something like 'the turn pairs the lowest board card so doesn't change the relative hand strength of AK at all'

Am I in the right area?

mbecks83

One to be treasured

Pondy

I've been experimenting a very aggressive LAG strategy at 10NL Zoom full ring recently and have been able to get people off all sorts of hands with aggressive play and deep stacks. In this example you were lucky that villain had the only hand that calls a raise on the flop and another bet on the turn and folds to a bricked river: AcKc (or maybe some other AcXc combination he decided to squeeze with light.
It is also possible that he had KK+ and it went like this: On the flop, he can't let go of the overpair. The turn is basically a brick, so because he called the flop raise and the turn doesn't change anything he calls again. But once you pull the trigger on the river he finds a fold despite getting an okay price.
What I have found at 10NL Zoom is that most regs are incredibly nitty and you will see some big laydowns to pressure. But in your hand example, this will probably not work too often.

mbecks83

Ah @Pondy, you're my rock.

I admit part of me has convinced/deluded itself that I pushed this guy off a pair, possibly even an overpair, but I concede it's optimistic.

I think the important point is that whatever he called with on the flop, he was always going to call with on the paired turn. If he feels that he can't stand a river shove, then that's a separate decision point. It could've been a pair, it could've been AK or busted draw, but with no option to raise or check behind, he had to make a big choice for almost 100bb.

Fwiw I'm also finding it to be a nitfest, with the occasional attempt at creativity/spew/drunkenness.