Call off with Overpair?

dj1000dj1000 Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
Although this is a common situation in poker, I thought it interesting if only for my possible flawed reasoning.

$1/2 home game, usually wild with money flying, many players with money to burn. Two limps, an unknown to me in HJ, raises to $17, I am in CO with KhKd. I 3-bet to $55, limpers fold, unknown in HJ calls. Pot is ~$115 with effective stack of $250 behind.

Flop is 9h8d6h. HJ checks, I CB $60, HJ goes all in for $250, I have him covered.

Note: In a previous hand, unknown had shoved on flop with nut flush draw.

My reasoning went like this:
Possible FD with a hand like AhQh, etc, but I block AhKh. Probably just a couple combos – AhQh, maybe AhJh.
Sets – 99, 88, & 77 for 9 combos
Then I started thinking – he would probably do this with pocket tens, JJ, QQ, I though he would raise AA preflop – this is 18 combos, then I thought I will discount this to 9 combos.
Pocket 88 for 6 combos

I am way ahead of 15-17 combos, and way behind 9 combos. I talked myself into calling here for the nature of game and seeing shove with flush draw in previous hand.

I typically fold in these situations because at $1/2 most players are not bluffing for that amount of money. I call and he shows me pocket nines for the set. We ran it 3 times at his suggestion and I brick 3 times.

Was this a +EV call vs this player type long term. I am thinking even discounting the TT, JJ, & QQ combos to 9, I probably still gave them too much weight.

Any comments?

Thanks, David

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    dj1000 wrote: »
    $1/2 home game, usually wild with money flying, many players with money to burn....

    I typically fold in these situations because at $1/2 most players are not bluffing for that amount of money. I call and he shows me pocket nines for the set. We ran it 3 times at his suggestion and I brick 3 times.

    In this home game scenario, I'd be calling, too. On the flop, there are far too many combos, as you noted, that V could have that are semi-bluff hands. On the turn or river, however, I'd be far more reluctant to the make this call because the ratio of (semi-)bluff hands to made hands leans much more to the latter.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Give him some more QTs type hands and run your equity against those suited Broadway hands.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hero's got :KD: :KH:
    Pot is 3-bet pre
    Flop is :9H: :8D: :6H:

    Should we bet?
    What is V's range here?
    Shouldn't he have more than just big Aces and sets?
    (heads up, I'd flat AA vs. a 3-bet)

    with 250 behind and pot 115 ... I don't see the need to rush to get stacks in on the flop.
  • dj1000dj1000 Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    Thanks for the comments. I appreciate it.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file