Villain's Weird Line - 2x Pot Shove on Turn

NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,201 ✭✭✭✭
edited April 2017 in Online Poker Hands
Villain played this hand very passive on flop and then bombs turn which I felt was a really strange line...stats were relatively loose passive over a small sample so when he suddenly gets aggressive I felt that his shove should be fairly nutted in a three-way pot although I block QT and T9.....in real time it was a very confusing line and my curiosity nearly caused me to look him up...but I elected to fold. Looking after the fact at the range I assign him (which I'm somewhat unsure of as well since it is a weird line), it looks like a break-even call....what are your thoughts?

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 111.2 BB (VPIP: 28.30, PFR: 11.32, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)
Hero (MP): 139.84 BB
CO: 127.92 BB (VPIP: 23.15, PFR: 20.37, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 109)
BTN: 43 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 57)
BB: 139.76 BB (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 57)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T:diamond: Q:diamond:

UTG raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 3 players) J:diamond: 8:diamond: 4:club:
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 4.8 BB, BB raises to 12.64 BB, UTG calls 12.64 BB, Hero calls 7.84 BB

Turn: (44.32 BB, 3 players) Q:spade:
BB checks, UTG bets 96.56 BB and is all-in, fold, fold

UTG wins 42.12 BB

0.72 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.

Here's what I assign him on the turn (again, it doesn't feel completely right but I think it's somewhat reasonable)....do you agree with this range and with the fold on the turn? Any other thoughts to share?

dpxeuo0z4bya.png

Comments

  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    preflop is close but given UTG seems to be the spot and it was MR I guess it might be ok?

    I would fold the turn even thought i might range him a bit different(ie not QT/JT/QJ/T9, but maybe some AXs with NFD) as these might not even be in his preflop range playing 28/11, and he might not take with hands like T9 and QT?
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    How about all PP in his opening range UTG ?
    It seems to me that it miss some sets in this range. Don't forget, "it doesn't make sense" is a sentence we should use very cautiously and say "it doesn't make sense TO ME". That's why it feel weird for you but could make plenty of sense for him.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,201 ✭✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    preflop is close but given UTG seems to be the spot and it was MR I guess it might be ok?

    What do you mean?
    kenaces wrote: »

    I would fold the turn even thought i might range him a bit different(ie not QT/JT/QJ/T9, but maybe some AXs with NFD) as these might not even be in his preflop range playing 28/11, and he might not take with hands like T9 and QT?

    Yeah as I said I'm definitely not in love with the range I gave him so there can definitely be some changes/debate there. However, between my hand and the board a lot of reasonable NFD hands are blocked....maybe a hand like A9dd that picks up a gutter? He is the PFR so I would expect AKdd to bet flop. There just doesn't seem to be a ton of hands that make sense to me.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,201 ✭✭✭✭
    How about all PP in his opening range UTG ?
    It seems to me that it miss some sets in this range. Don't forget, "it doesn't make sense" is a sentence we should use very cautiously and say "it doesn't make sense TO ME". That's why it feel weird for you but could make plenty of sense for him.

    Yeah it's really hard sometimes to follow the logic that someone else may have in a spot like this.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    preflop is close but given UTG seems to be the spot and it was MR I guess it might be ok?

    What do you mean?
    kenaces wrote: »

    If UTG was reg and no big fish in BB this is a fold preflop
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    UTG's line is very confusing on this board multiway w/ the initiative. I'd weight them heavily toward JJ/88/44, could have a freak T9s for the straight. I guy running at these stats isn't getting out of line post and we'd expect them to play overpairs linearly. Our two pair/trip outs are likely dead and we're getting way worse than 2:1 to call w our oesfd. Good fold I think.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,201 ✭✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    Ninjah wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    preflop is close but given UTG seems to be the spot and it was MR I guess it might be ok?

    What do you mean?
    kenaces wrote: »

    If UTG was reg and no big fish in BB this is a fold preflop

    I think folding pre to a min raise with position is way too nitty. Plenty of room for post flop play.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    you have a leak :)

    play 100K hand and then filter your database for CC and you will see(i have done this with MUCH bigger sample size on myself and others)
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,201 ✭✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    you have a leak :)

    play 100K hand and then filter your database for CC and you will see(i have done this with MUCH bigger sample size on myself and others)

    You're gonna have to go into a bit more detail as to why because what I see is a huge SPR, position, and a likely skill advantage on my part against Villain. Folding here is my LAST option imo.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    You're gonna have to go into a bit more detail as to why because what I see is a huge SPR, position, and a likely skill advantage on my part against Villain. Folding here is my LAST option imo.

    first thought is F-you i don't have to do anything LOL

    but since i doubt you ment any harm here a few thought:
    - too often you will have bad position both relative and absolute
    - vs typical ~15% UTG range you have EQ problem with weak hands like QdTd
    - you lack the initiative
    - you are at risk of being dominated on Qxx Txx and XdXdX flops
    - you will sometimes get 3bsq and have to fold

    These are just explanations I made up/stole from other players. The more convincing reason to fold this spot reg on reg is data. IE pokersnowie folds, PIO solutions fold, and every large HH data base I have ever looked at show CC in MP/HJ with marginal hands is not +EV

    Like I said go play 100K hands and see what your data show for CC light in these spots, and I think you will agree. Or you can just trust some random guy on the RCP forums and save that money - up to you
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    kenaces wrote: »
    - too often you will have bad position both relative and absolute
    He have position on everybody.

    Yo do realize that 100K hands is a small sample ?

    Although QTss may be a 3B Fold in a GTO realm it never consider the type of player @Ninjah is facing nor his stats. Instead it consider that UTG is playing perfectly balanced which is certainly not the case.

    Against a 28/11 that may turn into a 35/19 due to errors margin of the very small 55hands sample, i'll probably call all day QTss since i'll expand my 3B value range vs him, so the fringe next up include QTss in my CC range.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,201 ✭✭✭✭
    @kenaces Adam said it best above....solvers are providing their solutions based upon the premise that everyone at the table is balanced or playing GTO, which may be a little more accurate in mid-stakes online and high stakes live....but in low stakes live and online micros, many players have massive leaks which means that an exploitative approach is more applicable. I do have position, ok stack depth, and this player is shaping up to be on the weaker end of the spectrum. I think the only argument here is whether or not I should be 3-betting to iso the PFR. I would be interested to hear @Christian Soto or @berkey11 take on this.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    This line from Villain is very strange. Min raise pre, check flop, and flat a check raise. WTF.

    Overpairs: Maybe he was looking to checkraise a hand like QQ+? But, someone beat him to the punch, and he's deciding that his hand is under repped and isn't ready to fold yet.

    Sets: Many players with a set in this spot may check the flop, but once a player check raises the flop, I don't think they're flatting with sets very often--especially on this board. However, it's possible they are just getting sneaky.

    Flushdraws: He could have some NTFD's, but it seems like they would be discounted a decent amount--since many of them may want to bet this flop--stuff like A5dd.

    On the turn, his actions somehow gets more strange. I mean, surely, this card isn't good for his calling range on the flop, and he should be somewhat worried about that card as it brings the obvious straight--and I dont' think he's going to show up with a straight here. It would be pretty bold to call a check raise on a two flush board with an open ender. So, what's is he shipping it with? I don't think it's going to be AA or KK. Maybe QQ? Although, there's only 1 combo of that now.

    In the end, I feel like he just has to be value heavy here. Most likely any of the sets. Just seems like a terrible spot to bluff, but I guess if you're going to bluff, may as well 2x it.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    - too often you will have bad position both relative and absolute
    He have position on everybody.

    Yo do realize that 100K hands is a small sample ?

    Although QTss may be a 3B Fold in a GTO realm it never consider the type of player @Ninjah is facing nor his stats. Instead it consider that UTG is playing perfectly balanced which is certainly not the case.

    Against a 28/11 that may turn into a 35/19 due to errors margin of the very small 55hands sample, i'll probably call all day QTss since i'll expand my 3B value range vs him, so the fringe next up include QTss in my CC range.

    when you CC in MP you may or may not get relative/absolute position

    yes 100K hands is small but i have see such a clear patter of CC margins hands in MP/HJ losing money that I don't need bigger database to know where QTs fits in. I also have looked at 1M+ database and have observed same

    If UTG is has RFI = 11 QTs is in even worse shape
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    Ninjah wrote: »
    @kenaces Adam said it best above....solvers are providing their solutions based upon the premise that everyone at the table is balanced or playing GTO, which may be a little more accurate in mid-stakes online and high stakes live....but in low stakes live and online micros, many players have massive leaks which means that an exploitative approach is more applicable. I do have position, ok stack depth, and this player is shaping up to be on the weaker end of the spectrum. I think the only argument here is whether or not I should be 3-betting to iso the PFR. I would be interested to hear @Christian Soto or @berkey11 take on this.

    I figured out you can not CC so light(as did many other pros) many years before PS/PIO even existed. I only mentioned them as additional data point.

    My point to OP was he call was close because he thought UTG was the spot and that vs regs this is clear fold.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    I understand but here, in this very example, we are not playing versus a database. We are playing versus a 28/11 and i don't want to repeat but its 55 hands ! The margin is +-6% to +-10%

    Given the big gap between Vpip and PFR we can assume that it will probably goes more toward a 35/17 then the opposite. So by calling here i dont think we make a big mistake vs. that player.

    There is certainly other factors to take into account when we make that kind of call and that is why i don't really buy into a perfect way to play a hand based on a database. Surely QT is not a great hand. Surely when you look all over the internet you'll find perfect ranges where they will advice you to 3B Fold this hand IP vs. EP raiser. But it is player dependents and situation dependent.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    I guess I also want to add that 3B QTs vs RFI 11% guy's UTG open is not good plan. think about what his range is - pairs + every B-way hand that dominates QTs(except maybe JTs)

    I 3B way more in these spot than most regs but even I don't go as light as QTs

    Also we need to remember there are 4 players still to act behind us
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    I understand but here, in this very example, we are not playing versus a database. We are playing versus a 28/11 and i don't want to repeat but its 55 hands ! The margin is +-6% to +-10%

    Given the big gap between Vpip and PFR we can assume that it will probably goes more toward a 35/17 then the opposite. So by calling here i dont think we make a big mistake vs. that player.

    There is certainly other factors to take into account when we make that kind of call and that is why i don't really buy into a perfect way to play a hand based on a database. Surely QT is not a great hand. Surely when you look all over the internet you'll find perfect ranges where they will advice you to 3B Fold this hand IP vs. EP raiser. But it is player dependents and situation dependent.

    Like I said QTs is bad as "default" line imo, fine if you have good expoit reason - i think this is the 3rd time i have said same:)
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    There is certainly other factors to take into account when we make that kind of call and that is why i don't really buy into a perfect way to play a hand based on a database. Surely QT is not a great hand. Surely when you look all over the internet you'll find perfect ranges where they will advice you to 3B Fold this hand IP vs. EP raiser. But it is player dependents and situation dependent.

    Not selling anything - just killing some time sharing my exprience :)

    After you have played and/or collected tons and tons of online HHs there are lots of things one can learn by drilling down into database, and smart players so this all the time as one way to get better at the game. This doesn't mean you don't adjust to table/players just that you have super solid default preflop game.

  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    I guess I also want to add that 3B QTs vs RFI 11% guy's UTG open is not good plan. think about what his range is - pairs + every B-way hand that dominates QTs(except maybe JTs)

    I 3B way more in these spot than most regs but even I don't go as light as QTs

    Also we need to remember there are 4 players still to act behind us

    It will always depend on YOUR 3B range. If you need to balance your 3B range than you'll need some 3B folds. If you got A2s-A5s it's only 16 combos so you'll need other hands. I'm pretty sure if you look around the net you'll find plenty or 3B ranges vs early position raiser that include QTss as a 3B Fold.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    Here is an example taken from an online site that sell charts.

    su7hxa7xb98i.png
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,201 ✭✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    I guess I also want to add that 3B QTs vs RFI 11% guy's UTG open is not good plan. think about what his range is - pairs + every B-way hand that dominates QTs(except maybe JTs)

    I 3B way more in these spot than most regs but even I don't go as light as QTs

    Also we need to remember there are 4 players still to act behind us

    Not worried about getting squeezed at a table where practically no one is 3-betting. Also with a hand like QTs that has implied odds, I don't mind others calling. I'm comfortable either a) playing in position vs a weak opponent or b) going multiway with a drawing hand. I'm not stacking off with one pair with this hand - see flop of above HH for that.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,592 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    kenaces wrote: »
    I guess I also want to add that 3B QTs vs RFI 11% guy's UTG open is not good plan. think about what his range is - pairs + every B-way hand that dominates QTs(except maybe JTs)

    I 3B way more in these spot than most regs but even I don't go as light as QTs

    Also we need to remember there are 4 players still to act behind us

    It will always depend on YOUR 3B range. If you need to balance your 3B range than you'll need some 3B folds. If you got A2s-A5s it's only 16 combos so you'll need other hands. I'm pretty sure if you look around the net you'll find plenty or 3B ranges vs early position raiser that include QTss as a 3B Fold.

    Well my default 3B game isn't balanced as I am expoting the player pool.

    But even if I want a polarized MPvnittyEP balanced 3B - you don't need many bluffs as your value range has to be very compressed, and like you said there are better hands than QTs(think KK+ and a few AXs combos) If I know some guy is opening super tight I am not going to worry at all about balance.

    If you really want to look at GTO play in this spot neither PS or PIO will be 3Bing with QTs

    If you want to play QTs as 3B or CC in MP - go right ahead it won't cost me a penny :)

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