# Post Flop Thought Process

Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
edited March 2015
This has been a fun and interesting exercise. In creating these equations, it makes me realize that I'm not nearly as confident in my flop play as I thought I was. If anyone could help me expand or make corrections on these formulas I would greatly appreciate it. For stack purposes, let's assume HERO has about 60bb and is always covered by opponents. Default Player type is grinding regs playing TAG styles. Assume this is small stakes (1/2 or 2/5)

I want to make sure I'm factoring all of the variables for Post Flop in deciding what line I should take.

Do I have initiative?
IP or OOP?
HU or multiway?
Eff Stacks?
Player Types?
Static or Dynamic Flop?
What do I have?
What do I think their Range is?
What will they do with that range?

So far my basic default equation is:
Initiative(bool) + position(bool) + Flop type(bool) + #players(int) + HitFlop(bool) = CBET% (amount) (Plan if raised)

Then I think, ok this is my default, but what is their range and what will they do with it?

Equations: I'll start with the most common scenario, checked to IP with Initiative

Checked to IP
Initiative + IP + Dynamic Flop + HU + Draw = CBET (100%) (\$?) (Bet\call(\$<size?))
Initiative + IP + Dynamic Flop + HU + Pair = CBET (100%) (\$?) (Bet\fold2raise)
Initiative + IP + Dynamic Flop + HU + Missed Flop = CBET (?%) (\$?) (Bet\fold2raise)
Initiative + IP + Dynamic Flop + HU + TwoPairPlus = CBET (100%) (\$?) (Bet\raise)
Initiative + IP + Static Flop + HU + Pair = CBET (100%) (\$?) (Bet\fold2raise)
Initiative + IP + Static Flop + HU + TwoPairPlus = CBET (100%) (\$?) (Bet\raise)
Initiative + IP + Static Flop + HU + Missed Flop = CBET (?%) (\$?) (Bet\fold2raise)
Initiative + IP + Dynamic Flop + Multi + Draw = CBET (100%) (\$?) (Bet\fold2raise)
Initiative + IP + Dynamic Flop + Multi + Pair = CBET (100%) (\$?) (Bet\fold2raise)
Initiative + IP + Dynamic Flop + Multi + TwoPairPlus = CBET (100%) (\$?) (Bet\raise)
Initiative + IP + Dynamic Flop + Multi + Missed Flop = CBET (?%) (\$?) (Bet\fold2raise)
Initiative + IP + Static Flop + Multi + Pair = CBET (100%) (\$?) (Bet\fold2raise)
Initiative + IP + Static Flop + Multi + TwoPairPlus = CBET (100%) (\$?) (Bet\raise)
Initiative + IP + Static Flop + Multi + Missed Flop = CBET (?%) (\$?) (Bet\fold2raise)

OOP
Will complete after refined IP equations

Facing Donk IP
Will complete after refined OOP equations

• Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
In looking at my logic, I can already see some big questions.

1. My only time I call a flop raise is with a draw and only if they give me a good price. Seems like this turns my hand face up. I'm thinking I should re-raise semi-bluff with my strong draws to balance my re-raise of my TwoPairPlus hands. Essentially, I would probably ONLY be flatting a flop 3bet with monsters or smaller draws.

2. Since I'm only playing 60bb, my raise\reraise might need to be raise\shove in some cases.

3. I might need to add equations for StrongDraw and SetsPlus hands as they may have different plan trying to get more money in the pot, especially in Multi-way pots.
• Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
Yeah overall it is a little conservative for 60 bbs.
• Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
What changes would you make to make it more aggro?
Are any of these lines flawed?
Are there any obvious exploitations?
• Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
Well it's funny that you use the word exploitable, because that's exactly what almost all of this is, although the short stack part in fact protects you to a degree, as there is not that much room for anyone to maneuver you. But that really depends on your opponents. Someone has to do the actual exploiting; it's probable that you should not even worry about it.

My original point is that all of the lines are conservative; you are folding pairs and draws (which pairs, which draws) at a shortstack, when you should probably be realizing your equity some percentage of the time. It also begs the question, what are all these draws you are flopping when your preflop range should be showdown oriented at 60 bbs? If it is mainly axss hands, which would make sense, folding is probably out of the question when you flop well. Also as a shortstack, you want a x/shove line in a lot of spots, in my opinion.
• Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
Draws happen often something like this
HERO Raises something like and gets a caller behind
Board comes
• Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
Right, so there is a bet/shove, not bet call.

I guess your additional strongdraw category is going to be important to make that one work.