Was this foolishly aggressive?

GlynGlyn Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
I played this hand recently in a live $2/$4 no-limit hold 'em game in New Hampshire. Villain is a pro that would be playing higher if the room had anything higher. I know this because he's been talking about playing as a pro, having "no job", how he has a horse in the tournament that's running downstairs; and another guy came to the table to buy a share of his WSOP action. He's been playing a strong game and has about $750 behind. I think my table image is TAG with a capital 'T', but I've been caught bluffing once or twice. I have about $850 behind.

The Action
I have the button and Villain is SB. BB is Villain's buddy - when they get heads up, they tend to check it down.
Three players limp and (a) I raise to $25 with :Kc:6c . SB 3-bets to $60. BB calls. Limpers fold, and (b) I call. Pot is $192.
Flop comes :4h:5c:6d . SB checks, BB checks, (c) I bet $100. SB calls, BB folds. Pot is $392.
Turn is :7c . SB checks, (d) I bet $225. SB thinks briefly and calls. Pot is $842.
River is :Tc . SB checks, (e) I shove. SB tanks for about a minute and calls.
SB mucks, but later claims to have had :Ad:Ac .

My Decisions
(a) I have the button and want to punish the limpers. Taking a page from "The Course" by @Ed Miller , I think that a suited king is well within the range of hands that I should raise with in this spot. I don't expect to pick up the blinds and limps very often in this game, but I might get heads up IP with someone, and I plan to continue to exploit my position.
(b) SB's 3-bet makes me think he's playing QQ+. I don't put him on a much wider range because he has 5 players left to act and will be OOP for the remainder of the hand. I'm open to re-evaluating that assumption based on future action. I'm not worried about BB's call, because I figure he wants to get heads up with his buddy and check it down; and he's getting 1.5:1 to do that. I put him on ATB, 88-JJ; give or take. I'm getting 4.5:1 to call and see if the flop comes favorably.
(c) I know that top pair is not good here. A bet from SB would have folded me out. I want to keep the initiative and I want to rep the possibility of 44-66, and maybe 33 and 77+. I think I have some fold equity here, but also hope to isolate SB. I have 5 outs to beat QQ+, and any card 2-8 puts the specter of a set, straight, full house or quads out there. Of course, any club gives me additional outs.
(d) This is the perfect turn card. I can rep 33-88, and I have 14 outs to beat QQ+ (13, if he holds a club). I also have 8 outs to a chop, so almost half the deck is safe for me, and other cards are scary for him. Even J or Q could be a bluff out if he's putting me on JJ+. I fire the second barrel with the intent to shove the river on any safe card.
(e) I am now convinced that Villain has QQ+. And I'm sure my hand is well disguised. I know he's seen me show down a river bluff once or twice (never for my whole stack). I execute my plan.
After the fact, I think he may have put me on 44+, AK+, most of which he beats with AA. I think he probably discounted the flush possibility because it was back door and he holds the ace, blocking the nut flush.

Should I have surrendered pre-flop?
Were my first and/or second barrels too aggressive?
What range would you have put me on at the river?
Would you have called my river shove in his spot?

Comments

  • Dean MDean M Red Chipper Posts: 184 ✭✭✭
    I'm interested in hearing some other input, but I like the way it was played.

    Was it aggressive? yes
    Did you rep a much stronger hand? most definitely

    You used an odd table dynamic to your advantage (he and his buddy not wanting to go against each other)

    He was afraid of the board and didn't raise your flop or turn bet which would have made you fold.

    This is one of those hands that make me think there are poker gods who love to reward aggression :)

  • Sean OSean O Red Chipper Posts: 298 ✭✭
    Nice hand. What do you do if the river is the :TD: instead? (The poker gods ignore me more often than they shower me with made draws)
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2017
    I can tell you that when a pro 3-bets that small from the blinds, he wants a call. So you're right to put him on a very tight range. (That is both bad news and good news - it's always nice to pretty much know what your opponent has.) I don't think he could have counted on the BB calling and therefore giving you such good odds, but with so many limpers he at least should know this could happen, but he's OK with it. So while the hand is probably not foldable, you have to admit you got a pretty darn good board rolling out for you to continue this way. Your hand looks very much like a mid overpair that he can beat (99-JJ except 88), you caught something either of value or bluffable at every single point, and the stack sizes also become awkward for him. That parlay makes me wonder of how many ways this hand could have gone wrong, as well :) What would you have done if he had raised the flop, as maybe he should have done and maybe you should have expected given his preflop range?
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    in the real world - I'm not even sure K6s should be part of button raising range after 3 players limp in.
    what are we blocking?
    and what hands that are calling do we dominate? Q5s?
    (if you're opening K6s... then you're probably opening like 30% of all hands on the button... to which you're calling a 3-bet? Sounds like FPS.)

    sure, it's a pretty hand.
    after all we can make two straights with it.. and we block 66, 65, 76 and KQ...
    Plus, we got the button.

    but unless we have a god-like image (which we don't) - IMO it's spewy spew spew...
    well, actually - optimistic spewy, spew spew.

    when we're 3-bet - it should be "goodnight, Irene"... unless we're 300bb+ deep... that's effective stack, not just ours. and we're not. (against V's likely range, we're likely to hit our hand one out of 5 times...IF we make it to the river)

    we're lucky that SB took a bluff-catching line with a hand that crushes us.
    (you should mention to him that Fausto now offers coaching)
    I don't mind your flop bet, but once called - we should check turn.
    after all... what's the point of having position if we can't use it to realize our equity?
    what do we do if SB shoves on our turn bet?

    this is the problem when tennis lessons are misapplied.
    congrats on winning the hand.
    but if you're truly seeking to become a better player, this maniac style should only be used sparingly. and you should learn to use different gears when presented with an opponent that likely has you crushed.

    BTW - after the 3-bet, you're ranging V on QQ+. Do players in your game often fold these hands because some guy on the button is "repping sets"? (mine don't)
    Would you really raise pre with 44-66 from button and call a 3-bet?

    Also - after you've been caught bluffing TWICE, I would think your table image is more of TAG with a capital "L" not "T"... tight guys don't bluff multiple times in our games.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    (if you're opening K6s... then you're probably opening like 30% of all hands on the button... to which you're calling a 3-bet? Sounds like FPS.)

    Presumably this was a one off, in which case you would not really be doing this 30%. If so, then obviously fold.
    kagey wrote: »
    BTW - after the 3-bet, you're ranging V on QQ+. Do players in your game often fold these hands because some guy on the button is "repping sets"? (mine don't)

    Right.
    kagey wrote: »
    Would you really raise pre with 44-66 from button and call a 3-bet?

    But that's exactly the reason he gets away with any call here - villain only minraised (basically) - he's getting almost 5:1. You better be calling with 44-66 if you raised it, because this is practically the perfect scenario to set mine.
    kagey wrote: »
    Also - after you've been caught bluffing TWICE, I would think your table image is more of TAG with a capital "L" not "T"... tight guys don't bluff multiple times in our games.

    Right.
  • GlynGlyn Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    So, let me explore the many ways that the hand might have played differently.

    Pre-flop:
    SB raises to $100, BB folds, I fold. SB raises to $60, BB shoves, I fold. Etc. Given that SB raises, the size and additional caller were just right to get me to stay in.

    Flop:
    Flopzilla says that :Kc:6c will "hit" the flop against :Ac:Ad 15.9% of the time (2-pair or better, OESD, flush draw, combo draw). The flop that came missed me, by that definition. If SB had led out (big enough), I definitely would have folded. If he had check-raised (big enough), I would have folded. If the flop had hit me, and SB checked, I would have played similarly to how I did. If the flop hit and SB bet, I might have folded some of the weaker draws.

    Turn:
    If the turn card hadn't given me at least the flush draw, I would have folded to a bet. The chop outs were a bonus from the poker gods. If SB had check/shoved the turn, I would probably have folded. I'd be getting roughly 3:1 with 14 outs (well, actually 13) plus the 8 chop outs. I don't know - maybe I'd be priced in...

    River:
    Honestly, I was prepared to fold or check behind if the river bricked. I would write off the $385 and move on to the next hand. I never thought SB would fold to my shove. If it had bricked and he checked - well, I've been trying to get better about not spewing off with huge river bluffs.

    Now, I'm interested in what you would be saying if this hand had been posted from the point of view of Villain. Do you like his line of XC for 3 streets?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Mr. "Pro" is terrible is all that matters. Enjoy your games.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    in the real world - I'm not even sure K6s should be part of button raising range after 3 players limp in.
    I agree with you here. I'm not a fan of raising this hand. Although, if you search my forum posts, I know of one hand where I actually raised this very hand--caught a similar board, and whiffed all of the draws on the river. I don't need K6 in my life anymore.
    kagey wrote: »
    when we're 3-bet - it should be "goodnight, Irene"...
    Amen! Although, as @jeffnc mentions, this is a very small 3 bet, so maybe we should be defending here? Although, there aren't too many boards that are going to smack our hand--so we're going to need to rely on bluffing--which gets back to @kagey point of being very deep--which we aren't. So, I think a fold is a good decision.
    kagey wrote: »
    we're lucky that SB took a bluff-catching line with a hand that crushes us.
    Not exactly a dream flop for AA. So, I wouldn't call it lucky, rather a result of the board texture.
    kagey wrote: »
    (you should mention to him that Fausto now offers coaching)
    I can vouch for that!
    kagey wrote: »
    I don't mind your flop bet, but once called - we should check turn.
    after all... what's the point of having position if we can't use it to realize our equity?
    what do we do if SB shoves on our turn bet?
    Are you saying our hand just has too much equity to risk being jammed on? I'm not sure what I think of the turn bet. I can certainly see making a bet here since the SB is very likely capped and may fold this turn a decent amount. I wonder if SB had JJ if they would make the call on the turn? Also, I think once SB calls the turn, they probably aren't folding on the river very often.
    kagey wrote: »
    BTW - after the 3-bet, you're ranging V on QQ+. Do players in your game often fold these hands because some guy on the button is "repping sets"? (mine don't)
    Would you really raise pre with 44-66 from button and call a 3-bet?
    I think many players would call this particular 3 bet since it was basically a min raise--and we're about 200 bb's deep. Defending those doesn't seem terrible.
    kagey wrote: »
    Also - after you've been caught bluffing TWICE, I would think your table image is more of TAG with a capital "L" not "T"... tight guys don't bluff multiple times in our games.
    Agreed.

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Of course you defend against that price. WTF is up with the advice today.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2017
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    Are you saying our hand just has too much equity to risk being jammed on?

    I'm saying - at this point we can be pretty certain that K6s ain't the best hand on the turn. A "low variance" approach (and probably more optimal) would be to check back and hope we hit our flush or 2-pair by the river.

    Or if we're dead set on finding a way to win the hand - check back and raise BIIIG on the river to rep an 8 if V bets the river!

    with 5 two-pair outs and 9 flush outs - we're almost 30% to win the hand by the turn...
    (14 x 2 = 28%)

    if we bet and V jams, we're probably getting the "correct" odds to call... but why would you want to put yourself into that spot?

    (look at it another way: you know you're hand is bad. you need 2-pair or a flush to win. what price would YOU choose to realize your equity? $225? $590? or FREE?)
    Glyn wrote: »
    Flopzilla says that :Kc:6c will "hit" the flop against :Ac:Ad 15.9% of the time (2-pair or better, OESD, flush draw, combo draw).
    not knowing V's precise hand - I plugged in the range you gave him: QQ+
    (but in my game, a min-ish 3-bet is always AA. why? KK is scared of aces. QQ is scared of Kings and Aces. AA ain't scared of nothing.)

    there will always be a time when we can look back at the numbers and justify a call.
    but this is only "correct" if you do this every single time! otherwise, you're playing roulette and you're only calling when you "feel it" and folding otherwise... so what ends up happening is you'll miss the board sometimes when you call and fold when you would have hit the board (That's why we create ranges and stick to them)... which then begs the question: is it +EV to always make this play?

    and this is where Jeffnc comes in and says:
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Right.
  • MailmanMailman Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    I came away from this hand shaking my head more at the villain's play than I did hero.
  • GlynGlyn Red Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    OK - I see the light. I should have checked the turn. My turn bet served no real purpose, if my plan was to give up the river when I miss. A turn check would probably have induced a river bet even when I hit (what would be a scare card if not a 3rd club?); and I could have shoved the river anyway.

    So, I'm OK with the pre-flop call. I'm OK with the flop bet. I should have checked the turn. I would have had the same outcome when I hit, and lost a lot less when I don't.

    Have I learned my lesson?
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Of course you defend against that price. WTF is up with the advice today.

    Are you defending strictly on price? I was thinking more along the lines of playability post flop. We're going to have a ton of better hands to defend here, so why choose K6? Do you think we're deep enough to play this hand? Thoughts?

  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Mailman wrote: »
    I came away from this hand shaking my head more at the villain's play than I did hero.

    Yeah, that's two big calls with AA on this board. Especially once a club hits the river. I don't know if I would have the stones to call. Actually, I absolutely do not have the stones to make those calls.

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    Mailman wrote: »
    I came away from this hand shaking my head more at the villain's play than I did hero.

    Yeah, that's two big calls with AA on this board. Especially once a club hits the river. I don't know if I would have the stones to call. Actually, I absolutely do not have the stones to make those calls.

    He planned it as a bluffcatch the moment he checked flop. He has literally no respect for his player pool and thinks they will just punt it off when checked to. Which means they often do, lol.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Who doesn't have a player similar to this guy in their games? Big time pro, selling WSOP action, talking about spending their summer in Vegas, yada, yada, yada. Meanwhile, they're getting killed day in and day out in their normal game--but oh Vegas, that's where they do their damage!

    Out of curiosity, how much of his action is for sale? 100%?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Of course you defend against that price. WTF is up with the advice today.

    Are you defending strictly on price? I was thinking more along the lines of playability post flop. We're going to have a ton of better hands to defend here, so why choose K6? Do you think we're deep enough to play this hand? Thoughts?

    At 200 bbs deep in position we can defend anything worth raising against a min raise. I'm not vouching for the rest of this hand, however, lol.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    At 200 bbs deep in position we can defend anything worth raising against a min raise. I'm not vouching for the rest of this hand, however, lol.

    I guess if your post flop play is strong enough, then definitely. But, if someone is going to stack off on KXXXX, then get out, get out now.

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Then why raise this hand pre? Can't think ahead? Then it is foolish.
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 241 ✭✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    .

    Out of curiosity, how much of his action is for sale? 100%?

    400%, Baby!
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    400%, Baby!

    Yeah.

    But don't laugh!
    "scams can be done in many ways, the most common one I know is selling action on oneself to up to 300% and not even playing the tournament"
    http://www.grassrootspoker.co.uk/staking-scammers/

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