Late Tournament Shove

Curtis KCurtis K Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
Hi Everyone,

Just have a quick shove-related question:

Is it profitable to shove Q5s from the cutoff with 10.5bb? In this specific situation there were 11 players left in the tournament with a payout increase of about 30% at the 9th spot. The BTN, SB, and BB all had 20+ bb.

Thank you!

Comments

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    a beautiful mind say, "no"

    CO: 22+ Ax+ K6s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T7s+ 97s+ 87s 76s

    kkwgwrtlolgb.jpeg
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    although... this might be more of an ICM question than push/fold...

    if no one opened and you're in the CO with :QS::5S: ...
    shoving here depends on whether or not you're the smallest stack of the 11, villain tendencies on the button/SB/BB and your table image.

    I could probably make up a scenario where it's "right" to do so
    and then others where it's "wrong"

    push/fold charts offer an "Nash-equilibrium" look at shoving... and being unexploitable
    but it doesn't mean that you're "profitable" if you use it... just unexploitable

    @Curtis K without having more details about the players, their stacks and tendencies... it's really hard to answer your question

    for most players, this would be a fold
  • Curtis KCurtis K Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    @kagey Thank you, I appreciate the response. I was the third smallest stack out of 11 and my table was 6-handed.

    If you don't mind, could you give a scenario where this is a profitable play using ICM?

    Thanks again.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ICM software can actually show you what kinds of actions are "profitable"... (of course, the software is only as good as your range assessments)

    if there were some smaller stacks at your table (maybe some with an M of 1) - and near-equal (or smaller) stacks were behind you - it would probably be a "mistake" for them to call your shove without a monster hand (which, unfortunately, has nothing to do with your original question)

    in this scenario - folding to a shove would be more "profitable" than calling because getting crippled (regardless of whether they were ahead pre or not) would be detrimental to your earnings...when the likihood of the ss busting would advance you up the pay ladder. In this made-up situation, shoving against near-equal stacks when there are short stacks that are close to busting is the "correct" move with any two.

    make sense?

    the problem with your original question is - if you get called it's most likely by a "better" hand and you've got no showdown value. Queen-high would rarely win at showdown if neither player's hand improved.
  • Curtis KCurtis K Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    @kagey Makes sense. Appreciate you taking the time to write that out, thanks!
  • SaintsTigersSaintsTigers Red Chipper Posts: 244 ✭✭
    Snap fold. The chart says its not even +chipEV, and given that there are also ICM implications it is an even easier fold. That said if the 2 players who are shorter than you are really close to you in chips (say 9bbs each), then just playing chip ev is fine.

    Also you could run this ICM problem here for free: http://www.holdemresources.net/icmcalculator Then please report back with a screen shot and your findings about the shoving range.

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