Estimating VPIP at the table

nemoroninnemoronin Red Chipper Posts: 45
edited August 2014 in General Concepts
Just recently read Splitsuit's article on estimating VPIP at the table. I think it's a good solid shortcut - figure that you're playing about 33 hands per hour, multiply the # of hands your opponent is playing by 3 after the first hour and that's his percentage. Simple.

However, I'm wondering about the accuracy of that estimate. If we assume that VPIP is uniformly distributed (that is, we find a top n% hand, therefore we play it) then the number of hands per hour should follow a binomial distribution. Over a sample size of 33 (1 hour) there can be considerable variation in your observations.

Example: My target is to play 15% VPIP - over one hour (33 hands), I should expect to play somewhere between 1 and 10 hands. That's a pretty big range.

My point is this: paying attention and calculating VPIPs for your opponents is a very useful thing to do - just don't get carried away drawing any conclusions purely based on averages over a 1 or 2 hour period. Someone could be running into a lot of hands, or they could be folding a lot of junk.

Comments

  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,876 -
    I am a big fan of DonkeyTracker app on the iPhone.

    14843715025_783718704d.jpg

    So we can see seat Eight above has raised 1% of the time over 87 hands. Seat 6 is similar. Being a live player, I have never really gotten into the stats and HUD, but this little app is pure gold. I will be writing a longer article on this and other apps that I use.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
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  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,082 -
    nemoronin wrote:
    My point is this: paying attention and calculating VPIPs for your opponents is a very useful thing to do - just don't get carried away drawing any conclusions purely based on averages over a 1 or 2 hour period. Someone could be running into a lot of hands, or they could be folding a lot of junk.

    +1

    I didn't mean to imply that after 33 hands one would ever have a concrete idea on another player's ranges (whether playing live or online). It's a starting point with a lot of variance built into it...not a perfect stat with such a small sample size =)
    📑 Grab my custom poker spreadsheet pack right now.
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  • nemoroninnemoronin Red Chipper Posts: 45
    Over 87 hands, a 1% PFR can actually be as high as 6% in reality -- dude could just be card dead. But yeah, most of the time that's a good indicator the guy is raising QQ+/AK, and that's about it.
    Doug Hull wrote:
    I am a big fan of DonkeyTracker app on the iPhone.

    14843715025_783718704d.jpg

    So we can see seat Eight above has raised 1% of the time over 87 hands. Seat 6 is similar. Being a live player, I have never really gotten into the stats and HUD, but this little app is pure gold. I will be writing a longer article on this and other apps that I use.
  • Keith AshmanKeith Ashman Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
  • ManlocManloc Red Chipper Posts: 1 ✭✭
    Doug Hull wrote: »
    I am a big fan of DonkeyTracker app on the iPhone.

    14843715025_783718704d.jpg

    So we can see seat Eight above has raised 1% of the time over 87 hands. Seat 6 is similar. Being a live player, I have never really gotten into the stats and HUD, but this little app is pure gold. I will be writing a longer article on this and other apps that I use.

    Dam that app seem gold! Can't seem to find it in the app store! do you know any alternative that we can download on the app store?

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