Fire a 3rd barrel bluff here?

IznogoodIznogood Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
edited August 2014 in Online Poker Hands
Hello all.

I will not even begin to explain why I decided to go for it on this hand. All I am asking for is if you would fire the third bluff barrel here - if you ever got yourself in this situation.

Villain was a (16/11/43) VPIP/PFR/Foldto3Bet over 187 hands, so I definately expected him to (be able to) fold.

Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $32.77 (131.1 bb)
BB: $27.83 (111.3 bb)
UTG: $8.08 (32.3 bb)
MP: $35.08 (140.3 bb)
CO: $16.06 (64.2 bb)
BTN: $25.13 (100.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9club4.gif Aclub4.gif
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.75, BB folds, BTN calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 4diamond4.gif Qdiamond4.gif 8club4.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.38, BTN calls $2.38

Turn: ($8.51) Tdiamond4.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $6.06, BTN calls $6.06

River: ($20.63) 6heart4.gif (2 players)
Hero Fire 3rd barrel? or finaly realize that his equity was not good enough here and give up?

As always - thanks in advance.

Comments

  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Ehh not really too excited to trip the 6h- maybe a Jx or Kx you can blast through.
  • MarrekMarrek Red Chipper Posts: 104
    i don't like 2 barreling here without a read. The ten makes him more likely to call again than fold many hands ( AK (with :Xd ) :Ad Jo, :Ad 8o, :Kd Qo, Qo :Jd , KJ(obv), plus other floats like J9 with :Xd , AT, etc. We have no equity to fall back on with our actual hand.

    Firing the 3rd barrel on a blank is likely +EV because of the all the draws and pair+draws that didnt' fill, but the turn bet is likely -EV, so the whole line is likely weak.

    Using CREV ... if villan's pf range is

    99-QQ, AQo, AJo, KQo, AQs-A9s, KQs-KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, T9s

    he's only folding 14% on the flop ( all pairs call, fd, oesd, AT, AJ, KJ).

    that means hes almost folding nothing on turn ( 98% of his flop range is a 2ndP+, fd, oesd). If he's much wider pf, he folds the flop and turn more, but not so much on the turn.

    A river barrel forces 40% of this range to fold which is very small +EV, but your turn bet is -EV. ( 60% of his turn range is top pair or better)

    Even a flop bluff here is -EV unless you know he is pretty wide and/or you can 3 barrel him.

    You don't have enough equity on his board OOP. the Q is good for his range, as is the fd and Q8 connecting.

    http://postimg.org/image/fvm8ulh3j/
  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330
    I give up on this turn card. You have very little equity if called, and there's no doubt that's a strong card for his range.

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