$3/$5 - Bet Size With Nuts On The River

SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,592 -
edited April 2015 in Live Poker Hands
Ok, not the literal nuts by any stretch, lol. Playing $3/$5 for the last 45 minutes and I've been pretty snug as the game is a little odd and I'm still developing range ideas on people.

MP: Weak player who tends to play pretty face up
BUT: 2nd best player at the table, no 3bets yet, but seems competent

MP open limps ($1k)
Hero raises to $25 from the CO ($600)
:Kh :5h
BUT calls ($2k)

3 way to the flop ($83)
:Th :Ts :7c

MP checks, I bet $36, BUT folds, MP calls
- I assumed the BUT would play this very face up and I expected MP would only continue with pairs+/draws

Turn ($155)
:Qs

check/check
- I wasn't convinced that he would fold any pair that he calls on the flop, and I didn't want to have to barrel jam the river with zero info and very little equity if I got called. Also, if he checks the river I plan on over-betting any scary card since I assume he'd lead the river with a Ten/boat+

River ($155)
:Ks

MP checks, Hero ???
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Comments

  • ButchButch Red Chipper Posts: 152 ✭✭
    Well I'd check back here. But, why would you not stick to you're plan and over bet? The :Ks is scary?
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,592 -
    Butch wrote:
    Well I'd check back here. But, why would you not stick to you're plan and over bet? The :Ks is scary?

    I was going to overbet to get 7x or 66 to fold...but when I hit the King I'm now wondering if I can get those hands to call. I don't have any reads to think overbetting against him will induce a lighter call.
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  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 544 ✭✭✭
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 2,555 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Your hand looks like AK even when you bet small.

    Just bet/fold normally or whatever you like, and take the pot 95% of the time... and in doing so, not show down your light holding and protect your image. More +EV than squeezing out a few red chips at this point in the session, maybe, or at least against the likelihood that you actually get called, which has to be less than 50% if your read is right, so that you are gaining maybe $20 with sullyoo's sizing vs. having an immaculate image.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,592 -
    persuadeo wrote:

    Just bet/fold normally or whatever you like, and take the pot 95% of the time... and in doing so, not show down your light holding and protect your image.

    Yeah, that was the question. Bet $100 and rarely get called but also never show my cards. Or bet like $30-$40 and get called a bit more often but now give the guy on my direct left info about my ranges the times I get looked up.
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  • Big OwlBig Owl Red Chipper Posts: 170
    In this scenario I go with $90. Without reads I play a more abc game. I don't want to instigate a reaction that I don't know how to interpret.
  • ivandurstivandurst Red Chipper Posts: 116 ✭✭
    I like the larger vbet sizing here all day. Avoid revealing your light iso range, and as a bonus find out if MP likes to hero!

    Aside: For me the turn is a normal double barrel spot against a weaker player because it works so often, but only triple barrel with reads (not inclined to slowplay often, not a hero, etc). Interesting that you feel a dub needs a trip usually here... I may be leaving money on the table in these spots.
  • ArtArtBobartArtArtBobart Red Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭
    James--was this at Spirit Mountain or did you venture up North?

    Also, with all due respect, after watching your excellent videos I must admit I was somewhat confused that this would be the type of situation that you would find troubling. I almost felt that someone else was posting or that I missed something :)

    That said, my observations are as follows:

    1- It seems isolating with K5s in the CO seemed pretty marginal, especially with a strong player behind you that has you covered.
    2- Turn check is fine. When MP checks river, I'm pretty sure you are ahead. He probably holds a 7, missed straight draw or pair under 10. I would thow out a bet for value of about $75.
  • jimbo123jimbo123 Red Chipper Posts: 106 ✭✭
    I'd prob:

    (1) Barrel turn against an LP who can float your cb with overcards, ace high etc. Think J9 is the only gutshot which improves his range, and occasionally overcard hands like KQ,QJ or AQ that turn a pair. Considering he's calling any pair and lots of ace high type hands and gutshots on turn think this is def a profitable double barrel.

    (2) I'd bet about 65 to get looked up by random hands like AJ, 99 etc
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,592 -
    James--was this at Spirit Mountain or did you venture up North?

    Also, with all due respect, after watching your excellent videos I must admit I was somewhat confused that this would be the type of situation that you would find troubling. I almost felt that someone else was posting or that I missed something :)

    I went up north.

    And I don't actually have a question with the hand itself...I just like posing hands that I feel have interesting inflection points (which in this situation include the light ISO, the MW CB, the turn check, and the river sizing).

    A hand that has interesting inflection points is worth a post imo =)
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  • Ruxton_AtheistRuxton_Atheist Red Chipper Posts: 124 ✭✭
    Interesting. If we are considering making a marginally -EV or sub-optimal decision because of metagame considerations, Hero can overbet the river and muck quietly if snap-called or raised. The more standard action is to bet ~1/2 pot on the river, and see how/if the button adjusts to our new perceived range. I like the overbet. If he tank/calls, we can get atypical value from tabling a hand that we rather wouldn't.
  • ArtArtBobartArtArtBobart Red Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭
    [/quote]

    I went up north.

    And I don't actually have a question with the hand itself...I just like posing hands that I feel have interesting inflection points (which in this situation include the light ISO, the MW CB, the turn check, and the river sizing).

    A hand that has interesting inflection points is worth a post imo =)[/quote]


    Ahh...I thought you might be be posting for educational purposes.

    That said, do you feel that the isolation raise was too light given the concerns I mentioned?
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 544 ✭✭✭
    Showing your wide range can help when you are at the top of it. I would think getting more action at the top of your range can really be +EV. Not to mention making some money on the hand ( Here I am assuming making money is not a bad thing)
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,592 -
    Ahh...I thought you might be be posting for educational purposes.

    That said, do you feel that the isolation raise was too light given the concerns I mentioned?

    He hadn't shown a propensity to call for no reason, so I still assume I go HU a large chunk of the time (and that if he does call I can play the pot pretty easily).

    The ISO is light...but I felt it was going to be a cheap/easy HU pot far more often than not.
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  • ArtArtBobartArtArtBobart Red Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭
    Methinks a video on isolation plays is in order :)
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,592 -
    Methinks a video on isolation plays is in order :)

    Ask and you shall receive =P

    [video]
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  • ivandurstivandurst Red Chipper Posts: 116 ✭✭
    SplitSuit wrote:
    And I don't actually have a question with the hand itself...I just like posing hands that I feel have interesting inflection points (which in this situation include the light ISO, the MW CB, the turn check, and the river sizing).

    A hand that has interesting inflection points is worth a post imo =)

    I really enjoyed this post (and being able to comment on it), thanks for letting us in on what your thought process looks like, keep em coming! Watching vid now
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭✭
    You didn't say what your image was, but knowing you, I would think that a good player on the button would be quite aware of what you're doing. You seem to think this was a safe raise preflop, and you were there and I wasn't, but I personally wouldn't want to get called by a button player who knew what was going on here. You say he hasn't been 3-betting much but a call isn't all that great either. Having said that, we can justify basically anything we want to do at the table depending on the attributes we assign to the players involved. If you think he's going to fold a lot then maybe it's good....
  • ivandurstivandurst Red Chipper Posts: 116 ✭✭
    (Thank you for the in-depth ISOing vid, I've been ISOing WL fish with too similar a range as WT and cbeting too much, this cleared some things up)
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,592 -
    jeffnc wrote:
    You didn't say what your image was, but knowing you, I would think that a good player on the button would be quite aware of what you're doing. You seem to think this was a safe raise preflop, and you were there and I wasn't, but I personally wouldn't want to get called by a button player who knew what was going on here. You say he hasn't been 3-betting much but a call isn't all that great either. Having said that, we can justify basically anything we want to do at the table depending on the attributes we assign to the players involved. If you think he's going to fold a lot then maybe it's good....

    I'd been pretty tight over a ~45minute sample (this was likely only the second/third hand I had played). Was trying to get a feel for the table and it took a bit longer than normal that day.
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  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,592 -
    ivandurst wrote:
    (Thank you for the in-depth ISOing vid, I've been ISOing WL fish with too similar a range as WT and cbeting too much, this cleared some things up)

    You're very welcome =)
    Check out my latest course - The Hand Reading Lab
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭✭
    Well in that case, I agree that your hand looks too much like AK, but now you might as well bet like you have it.

    Maintaining an image is kind of like bluffing - you have to tell a consistent story. It's more important that I know what my image is, than it is to have some specific image. As long as I know what people think of me, I can adjust accordingly. I am really not looking to confuse people too much regarding my image, because then they become less predictable.

    It's funny that occasionally I'll hit a good run of cards right when I start a session or right after a lose my stack. Then I'll start hearing "he's changed his game" or "he's on tilt". People basically never lie when they talk about your image out loud. As long as I know what they're thinking, I'm OK. I've heard that I'm very tight, very solid, loose, folds a lot, calls down light, a donkey, and a pro. Interestingly, I've never heard that I'm balanced!
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 1,966 ✭✭✭✭
    Given the Flop Bet for roughly 1/3rd pot, which I think is fine, Hero is likely to get peeled by a range of all pocket pairs, some Ace High, some 7x and all draws gutshots or better. Obv 10x also.

    When the Turn falls the Qs, this is a layup bet given the assumptions on the Flop IMO. I think this is actually a big mistake in the hand. If Hero will be opening K5hh he must barrel here. As the Qs hits his range far harder than theirs.
    In fact, it is one of only 3 cards that we can necessarily barrel. Q (Bluff), K (for Val), Ace (Bluff).
    BD hearts don't help as much as the board won't change enough to garner folds and we will become a victim to equity.

    The discussion on the thread is if Hero should bet bigger or smaller to Protect Range on River and information.
    I think that argument is nuked as the range is already not protected given the Turn Check, and any re-opening of the betting can be exploited by a fairly easy Check-Raise.
    (Not that I think the CR happens often enough but it comes into play when discussing "Protecting Ranges")

    *Also, there was a brief discussion on Over-Betting River if the King was not to fallen. This is called the "Suicide Line" which consist of Bet, Check, Big Bet, and it doesn't work. It looks like exactly what it is: a last ditch effort to win the hand after bricking out. That's why it's called the Suicide Line.

    Alright I'm outtie.
  • ivandurstivandurst Red Chipper Posts: 116 ✭✭
    This is called the "Suicide Line" which consist of Bet, Check, Big Bet, and it doesn't work. It looks like exactly what it is: a last ditch effort to win the hand after bricking out. That's why it's called the Suicide Line.

    Should we be taking the Suicide Line sometimes when we have :T? ?X? here, since we're unlikely to get 3 streets of value?
  • JackofClubsJackofClubs Red Chipper Posts: 52
    James - great video on isolation. I would like to copy it to my saved videos to keep along with all of the other Red Chip videos. Is it possible for you to make it available to copy or would you make this your video for May so I can copy and keep the video?
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,592 -
    James - great video on isolation. I would like to copy it to my saved videos to keep along with all of the other Red Chip videos. Is it possible for you to make it available to copy or would you make this your video for May so I can copy and keep the video?

    Thanks!

    LINKY - (right click the link and choose "Save As/Save Link As"
    Check out my latest course - The Hand Reading Lab
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭✭
    ivandurst wrote:
    Should we be taking the Suicide Line sometimes when we have :T? ?X? here, since we're unlikely to get 3 streets of value?

    My thoughts exactly Ivan :-) Whenever I hear "don't do that with that hand in that situation", I immediately think "then I guess I should do that in the opposite situation."

    To answer your question, my opinion is yes - or at least that's how I often play it.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 1,966 ✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote:
    ivandurst wrote:
    Should we be taking the Suicide Line sometimes when we have :T? ?X? here, since we're unlikely to get 3 streets of value?

    My thoughts exactly Ivan :-) Whenever I hear "don't do that with that hand in that situation", I immediately think "then I guess I should do that in the opposite situation."

    To answer your question, my opinion is yes - or at least that's how I often play it.

    No guys, because then you will be slaughtering your bluff range. Just bet the 10x hand to protect the times you bet the Queen Turn as a bluff.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭✭
    I'm not following. If the "suicide line" means you're highly likely to get called, then there must be something special about it that makes it more likely than simply betting all 3 streets. (The only obvious difference is that you're checking the turn.) If checking the turn makes the river look more like a bluff, then how does this "slaughter" your bluff range? They can't both be killers, lol.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 1,966 ✭✭✭✭
    Because in the long run we want to be bluffing that Turn, which is the mistake that occurred here IMO. Therefore, we should bet it with our bluffs and our value.
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