Push vs Call in Mike Gano's 'Climbing The Stakes Series - 10NL' hand

Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 202 ✭✭✭
Hey. In Mike Gano's video, 'Climbing The Stakes series - 10 NL' I came across an interesting hand at 24:43. I have a question regarding the river but I'll go through the hand:

Hero has $10.08, blinds are 5c/10c and he has Ah Kd in the BB.

A villain in the cut-off makes it 3bb and the SB calls, a fishy opponent with a stack of $10.49, so he covers Hero.

Hero decides to pot it, making it $1.20. Cutoff folds and SB calls.

Flop is 9d 4s 5d. Villain checks, hero bets half pot with the two overs and the backdoor flushdraw. Villain calls.

Turn brings the 6d. The board is now 9d 4s 5d 6d. The pot is $5.13 and Hero has $7.63 remaining. Villain decides to bet $2.70 and Hero calls with the flush draw and the two overs.

The river brings the Ks. The board is now 9d 4s 5d 6d Ks. Villain bets $2.62, making the pot $12.88. Hero decides to call, saying that he assumes villain is making the bet as a value bet. I have to ask, however, if the hand is good enough to call with, why is it not good enough to raise the remaining $2.31?

When Hero calls the $2.62 he's essentially making the pot $15.50, which he can win, so not raising the remaining $2.31 into the pot for value sound a bit weird to me having decided that Hero's hand has enough equity to call the bet in the first place.

If we raise the remaining $2.31 and we assume Villain will call the bet of $2.31 we're essentially risking $2.31 to win $20.12, since we decided that we had enough equity to make the pot at least $15.50 in the first place. Don't we need sole 11.48% equity (2.31/20.12) to justify the raise of our remaining stack at that point?

I understand that Hero thinks Villain is value betting but do we not have enough equity to justify pushing it over and hoping for the best?

I would love your opinion or thoughts on this. I love the video but just felt like I had to ask this question.

Thanks!

Spoiler alert: Villain shows up with KJ, not that it's relevant IMO.

Best Answers

Answers

  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,589 ✭✭✭✭
    ops should have said call your river raise with enough worse hands to make it higher EV than just calling
  • Dave GDave G Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    edited June 2017
    You should punish the fish here, imo. If villain is a known fish, you have to come over the top all-in with top pair/top kicker for the expected value. He will call with the 2nd best hand (a worse K or even a 9) often enough, even if he's fairly sure he's beat. He doesn't want to get bluffed out of the pot for only a couple of bucks more.

    Assume this fish's range is wider than it should be, even considering all the pre-flop action & his decision to continue the hand from the worst possible position. A-K is going to crush his range overall, which will include many unsuited and dominated Broadway hands containing a lone diamond. There are 12 unsuited vs 4 suited combos of each hand, so if Villain routinely plays KJo against raises, he's less likely to be a real threat to have made his flush when the turn brings another diamond. If he had an off-suit K to go with a Qd, Jd, or Td, he could have gotten overly excited when the 3rd diamond hit the board on the turn & abandoned his passive calling until that point, then happily bet again with top pair on the river.

    I once saw an all-in fish sit straight up in his chair when a 3rd heart hit the board on the turn, & proudly turn over his 3h when another heart landed on the river. Of course he expected he had a winner (& he did in fact beat my set of K's). I wouldn't be surprised to see this fishy villain make flat calls from the blinds to 3- & 4-bets with any Broadway combo other than probably JTo. Widen his calling range just a little more, & another possibility in the above scenario is he has the Ad & an off-suit 9. Hero can't really be behind here on the river very often given the mistakes Villain often makes in his pre-flop hand selection. It's a clear raise when the Ks hits on the river even though Villain has led out again.
  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 202 ✭✭✭
    edited June 2017
    kenaces wrote: »
    Jónas S wrote: »
    you need to ask if villain will call your river raise enough to make it higher EV than just calling

    I don't see how that's relevant. If he folds (unlikely) then we win. If he calls then we are getting the exact odds previously mentioned.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2017
    Jónas S wrote: »
    If we raise the remaining $2.31 and we assume Villain will call the bet of $2.31 we're essentially risking $2.31 to win $20.12, since we decided that we had enough equity to make the pot at least $15.50 in the first place. Don't we need sole 11.48% equity (2.31/20.12) to justify the raise of our remaining stack at that point?
    you math is wrong
    Villain bets $2.62, making the pot $12.88. Hero decides to call,
    we are calling 2.62 to win 15.50
    but if we raise... we are raising 2.31 to win 2.31
    we don't have to risk the 2.31 to win the 15.50 we can just call the 2.62 and be done with the hand
    the extra 2.31 you're risking is giving you 1:1 odds not the 2.31 to win 20.12

    but V will be getting the odds of calling 2.31 to win 20.12 (or whatever the final total should be)
  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 202 ✭✭✭
    edited June 2017
    kagey wrote: »
    BUT
    the main reason NOT to shove... and @Red is learning this the hard way... is if he shoves on river - he's most likely only getting called by a better hand.
    The board is way too "wet" to shove here.
    So this is a classic example of Way Ahead/Way Behind... we're either golden or a dog.
    Shoving that extra 2.31 typically gets us no extra value.

    hope this makes sense.

    btw, welcome to the forums.

    Thanks.

    What bothers me is the amount H has remaining and is essentially risking. If the amount were bigger, 5-10 bucks, I'd understand all the reasons given but I don't quite get it with the remaining 2.31 bucks.

    Besides, pushing the 2.31 bucks into the pot, making it ~20 when Villain calls, is insane pot odds for villain so he'll be calling with pretty much anything if we assume we're ahead, and if we're not we only risked so little to win so much.

    I suppose that one way to think about this scenario, which is perhaps more in line with what I think you're trying to say, is that essentially we don't have to risk anything more than a call so we can think of the remaining money that could be pushed as a side pot if it were to be pushed where we essentially would be risking $2.31 to win $4.62 so in that case we'd have to be correct more often.
  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 202 ✭✭✭
    Dave G wrote: »
    You should punish the fish here, imo. If villain is a known fish, you have to come over the top all-in with top pair/top kicker for the expected value. He will call with the 2nd best hand (a worse K or even a 9) often enough, even if he's fairly sure he's beat. He doesn't want to get bluffed out of the pot for only a couple of bucks more.

    Assume this fish's range is wider than it should be, even considering all the pre-flop action & his decision to continue the hand from the worst possible position. A-K is going to crush his range overall, which will include many unsuited and dominated Broadway hands containing a lone diamond. There are 12 unsuited vs 4 suited combos of each hand, so if Villain routinely plays KJo against raises, he's less likely to be a real threat to have made his flush when the turn brings another diamond. If he had an off-suit K to go with a Qd, Jd, or Td, he could have gotten overly excited when the 3rd diamond hit the board on the turn & abandoned his passive calling until that point, then happily bet again with top pair on the river.

    I once saw an all-in fish sit straight up in his chair when a 3rd heart hit the board on the turn, & proudly turn over his 3h when another heart landed on the river. Of course he expected he had a winner (& he did in fact beat my set of K's). I wouldn't be surprised to see this fishy villain make flat calls from the blinds to 3- & 4-bets with any Broadway combo other than probably JTo. Widen his calling range just a little more, & another possibility in the above scenario is he has the Ad & an off-suit 9. Hero can't really be behind here on the river very often given the mistakes Villain often makes in his pre-flop hand selection. It's a clear raise when the Ks hits on the river even though Villain has led out again.

    I like the idea and it's somewhat in sync with what I was thinking, are we truly behind that often in order for not trying to squeeze the extra money.

    However, as I think others are trying to point out and I mentioned in my last comment, is that if we push the remaining money we're essentially creating a virtual side pot for which we're trying to win a pot of $4.62 (our remaining $2.31+V's $2.31 when he calls) where we risked $2.31 so we need to be good 50% of the time in order to justify the push assuming we're always getting called.

    Does that sound about right?
  • Dave GDave G Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    Jónas S wrote: »
    I like the idea and it's somewhat in sync with what I was thinking, are we truly behind that often in order for not trying to squeeze the extra money.

    However, as I think others are trying to point out and I mentioned in my last comment, is that if we push the remaining money we're essentially creating a virtual side pot for which we're trying to win a pot of $4.62 (our remaining $2.31+V's $2.31 when he calls) where we risked $2.31 so we need to be good 50% of the time in order to justify the push assuming we're always getting called.

    Does that sound about right?

    Yes, I agree with your math, & given Villain's inferior starting range, TP/TK is going to be good here well over 50% of the time. Looking at Flopzilla, there are 50 Broadway combos he likely calls with pre-flop & again calls the half-pot flop bet, with 2 over-cards & a back-door diamond or spade flush draw. He only has 4-5 combos of diamond-suited Broadway hands that make sense, since he re-raises pre-flop with hands such as AdQd. He might even have re-raised AdJd. 31 of those 50 backdoor flush draws also have back-door straight draws using the 9d on the board. His call on the flop & lead on the turn could mean a lot of things other than having Hero on the ropes. The 6d turn destroys any straight or back-door spade draws, but it still leaves an amazing 42 possible combos that contain a single diamond in his hand, versus the 4 or 5 combos that would have brought an actual flush on the turn. The final Ks & subsequent bet reduces the likely combos down to 6 made hands (2 of K-Q, 2 of K-J, & 2 of K-T) that he could have bet the turn & river with, & he's often going to reach home with those given their "potential" throughout the hand so far.

    In a nutshell, Hero's going to get lots of pre-/post-flop calls from this particular fish, & even a few donk bets with weak flush draws. No need to panic given Hero's equity going to the river, & Villain's wide range means no one really knows where he's at.

    If effective stacks were much deeper behind Villain's river bet, calling has a higher EV than raising, because he likely won't call a pot-sized or over-sized raise without having Hero beat. But when the final raise is only $2.31, you're actually going to see Villain calling very wide given the size of the total pot. Hero's all-in fold equity is close to zero if Villain has any kind of made hand. He'll call with A-9s & any K-x. If his range is truly bad, he might even have Qd-9x & be forced to call.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,495 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    [...]
    @Jónas S
    I agree with @kagey . If you raise, all the bad/medium you beat are going to fold (TP, MP, busted flush / straight draws); but all the hand that beat you (flush, sets, 2P) are going to call.
    Plus by calling he has to show his hand first (last aggressor), which gives us info. If we bet and he folds, nobody see the showdown. (This was discussed once here: do we bet when we are ahead to make Villain fold and hide our hand and the info about our line or call with less danger but we give our line?)

    At least usually.
    Here I've noticed immediately that Villain bets 2.70$ into 5.13$ on the turn (~50% pot bet) and 2.62$ into 10.53$ (~25%) on the river. This might indicates he is weak - so a call with TPTK is almost mandatory, esp. with these pot odds - even if sometimes they will do that with monster. But with a good read (esp. have caught Villain with the same line before) and if Villain is sticky, I guess you could raise all-in, targeting 9X and KX range.
    But this is a out-of-line play I wouldn't do without a good read and knowing that Villain is bad enough to be sticky with beaten hands.

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