Floated in position then caught a good card [5NL]

epokertable.netepokertable.net Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
I'm in the CO with :5d:6D:
Folded to me. I open for 3x

Villain in the bb is a 26/31 3b: 13.3. 3b from the bb is 16.7 over 123 hands. He starts the hand with 120bb's I cover by a lot.
Villain 3bets me to 10x. I've noticed he likes to 3bet from the bb.

I call with position and a speculative hand.

Pot is 21bbs. Flop comes:
:2H::4S::TD:
Villain has a Flop cbet% of 20%
Villain bets 16bbs.

I float. Here is what I was thinking. I have a hidden inside straight draw that I will be able to stack him with if I hit and he wasn't stabbing. If he was just stabbing at the pot and checks the turn I can take the pot away with any diamond, 5, 6, 7 or 8. I don't want to risk a raise here as he has a small cbet range, so I suspect he is at the top of his range. (I have his range as overpairs, 2 overs, or an outside chance of a set) But I think an overpair is most likely. Too optimistic of a call given his range?

Pot is 49bb.
Turn :AD:
V has a Turn cbet of 100%. But at closer look it is out of 1 hands. So not a lot to take from that stat.
Villain bets 35bb. He has 61bb's behind. Pot is 84bbs with his bet. Had he checked I would have shoved. Unfortunately it "feels" like he is very confident in his hand and is pot committed. So now I'm thinking the A hit him. Like a AK that hit or something along those lines. I have 2 diamonds so I don't think he picked up a backdoor diamond draw. I feel a straight draw is unlikely.

At this point I hit a great card to bluff, but unfortunately I don't feel like I have any fold equity. Obviously I don't have any show down value, so I have to hit to win. My quick math is that I have 28% equity (which is more than I thought during the hand). 4 straight outs, 9 flush outs - the :3D: = 12 outs. 12x2 = 24 + 3% for the 12 outs is approximately 28%.

As stated earlier, I do feel I would stack him if I hit. So I'm calling 35bb to win 180bb's. (Is that math correct) 84 + my 35 + his remaining 61bbs.

In the hand I folded, but 35/180 = 19%. So this should have been an easy call correct?

Thanks in advance!

Comments

  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    I think PF, I could go either way--calling or folding. Villain's stack depth seems kinda border line to be defending with 65s.

    On the flop, I think it's an easy call--backdoor diamond, straight draw, and the possibility that Villain may give up on the turn with a few hands. However, Villain has significant range advantage on this board, so he's going to be able to apply a lot of pressure to you.

    On the turn, I don't think this card is great for you. As you mention, you now have almost zero fold equity. I do wonder what villain would do here with QQ or KK? For me, I would continue betting those hands, but who knows about this villain? Also, you mention that you don't think villain would pick up a backdoor flush draw because you hold two diamonds. However, I don't think the diamonds you hold are in this players 3bet range anyway, so perhaps these are relevant cards to consider. Anyway, I think it's close on the turn, but I do agree that if you hit, you'll probably stack villain, so I think calling it correct.

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