Nitty Fold or Good Lay Down

Joshua KJoshua K Red Chipper Posts: 82 ✭✭
Game Type: $1-2-3
Hero has :As :Ac in UTG+1
Stack $270
Villain has us covered

Villain limps in UTG
Hero raises to $20
HJ and CO call
Villain Calls

Flop: :Td :8d :3h
Pot: $80

Villain checks
Hero bets $45 (sizing?)
HJ and CO fold
Villain raises AI

(I have history with Villain. Typically a loose passive player, meaning he calls with a wide variety of hands, but does not lead the action.

A day prior, he became upset with me raising a number of hands and shoves AI on the BU after I had raised from UTG +1 with :Qs :Qh. I call and he announces I need to get real lucky if you have a big pair. I flop top set and he hits runner, runner for a straight with :Ts :9s.

My thought process was that he knew I would be raising with a premium hand. His raise on the flop is not typical of him unless he has a good hand. I've never seen him shove with a draw, which makes me believe that he has within his range 33, 88-JJ, AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T8)

I ended up laying it down. He does not show. Thoughts?

Comments

  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 546 ✭✭✭
    Bet bigger on the flop and beat him in the pot. Even if his range is only sets, T8, QQ+, huge draws youre flipping(ish) equity wise. Pot is (80+45+250)=375 and you need to call off (250-45)=205 so youre gettting about 1.8 to 1. You only have to be good about 35%

    A smart man once told me not to fold the top of your range. Youre at the top. Make him show you a better hand.
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 546 ✭✭✭
    This feels like a combo counting moment. He has 9 sets, and 3 T8s. 12 combos beat us. Then what, say 20 FDs - I would be including Axdd. And then 4 combos of AdTx. 99-KK is 24 more. Say 48 combos of various KxTx, QxTx and JxTx. Already it's 12 combos we lose, almost 100 combos we win... Maybe he isn't pushing anything that doesn't draw to the flush, so knock it down to 12 Kd/Qd/Jd/Tx combos. Still 60 winning combos vs 12 losing...
  • MailmanMailman Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
    SPR right around 3 as well. Get it in there killer.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hard to imagine you never seen him bet a draw but he shoves T9s. If he really never bets draws I don't mind the fold but it is a bit nitty. Will he shove Tx? Imo it's more likely he has a draw, set, or 2 pair than Tx.
  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 231 ✭✭✭
    With the range you've assigned you have 60% equity which is more then the 35% you need to make this call. So the question is how sure are you about this range. There are a couple of people I play against that I would snap fold to against this raise but they are the exception not the rule.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭
    I can't...I can't find the fold. Not for less than 100 BB's. I've made some hero folds, but then again I've gotten sticky and been surprised by how often people shot up with like JJ or QQ here and are like "I GOTTA PROTECT AGAINST HIS AKdd!".
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,423 ✭✭✭✭
    @Joshua K
    I can understand your concern of "Villain never shoved with draw before, I should be beaten". But first you can't totally discount them. Maybe he has monster draw :AD: :9D: , or :JD: :9D: ; or maybe he overplay a TPTK (like :AD: :TC: ) against you having a draw or a broadway (esp. AK).
    Also, as said @Wiki_Leaks , don't fold the top of your range. If you start folding AA here, you're folding everything but premium holdings (here, 2P/sets). You will be too nitty, and exploitable.
    Finally, this call is important for your table image / image to Villain. If he shove and you show no fear of calling, he / they will avoid to bully you too light, and respect your bets more. (Watch out not to go total opposite and fight too light either.)

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