Should Hero Raise a donk lead with NFD?

OddAndy

In this hand I am the preflop raiser against a laggy type player who has shown bluffs in the past. With AKs on a suited flop, does raising have merit vs the donk lead? I've heard that donk leads are often weak hands and I should raise them often. As played I just called down, hoping he might have some weaker flush draws

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $1 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 154.91 BB (VPIP: 20.98, PFR: 16.35, 3Bet Preflop: 10.87, Hands: 372)
SB: 84.93 BB (VPIP: 33.87, PFR: 23.39, 3Bet Preflop: 15.56, Hands: 128)
BB: 40 BB (VPIP: 20.28, PFR: 17.79, 3Bet Preflop: 10.67, Hands: 576)
Hero (UTG): 90.91 BB
MP: 81.31 BB (VPIP: 20.17, PFR: 16.46, 3Bet Preflop: 4.94, Hands: 1,066)
CO: 228.01 BB (VPIP: 25.47, PFR: 13.68, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 216)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:heart: A:heart:

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 7:heart: T:diamond: T:heart:
SB bets 4.98 BB, Hero calls 4.98 BB

Turn: (16.96 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:
SB bets 12.09 BB, Hero calls 12.09 BB

River: (41.14 BB, 2 players) 4:club:
SB checks, Hero checks

SB shows 5:diamond: 5:club: (Two Pair, Tens and Fives)
(Pre 52%, Flop 41%, Turn 57%)
Hero shows K:heart: A:heart: (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 48%, Flop 59%, Turn 43%)
SB wins 39.09 BB

0.24 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.

moishetreats

Yes, you should raise the donk bet. You need semi-bluffs in your range, and this is the best one.

GabeyJ

I'm ok with the flop call. I think the turn should be a raise and the river a bomb. As played checking back the river is mind blowing. When he checks he has a hand like he showed or nothing. Put the pressure on.

Eazzy

This is a question of reads. raising the flop is fine. If your lag tends to double barrel bluff a lot, then calling flop with the plan to shove turn becomes the higher EV line.

If the lag has bet tells on the turn..then weighting for the turn can be best....

Also against some lags if you raise the flop you can expect an all in shove..with A K this can be a snap call...if you had something like QJs for you draw, then you would be more inclined to put the last bet in..... and a turn riase/shove is better.

What I take away from a hand like this is not how to play it, but what notes I need to take on the donking and barrelling tendencies of each lag in the furture.

Sully

I would not get too cute here. You should probably raise this donk 100% of the time, especially with air. The fact you have any equity is just a bonus.

On a paired board like this the donk almost always is a 7 or lower pocket pair asking the question "do you have a pocket pair greater than a ten?".

Just say "yes I do"

Austin

I don't like raising the flop here IP on a paired board. You may force out other dominated draws or price yourself out if villain shoves. Raising gives you a very narrow range and is not very believable in general.

Flat the flop, if you pick up additional equity on the turn J-A I would consider raising for value.

Please don't post your results, which can lead to bias feed back as you see everyone said raise the flop above.

Also I like the check back on the river because if villain has 88, 99, Tx he is not going anywhere. But if you did have Tx here and played the hand in a similar way, a polarizing PSB on the river is probably most +EV line.

moishetreats

Austin wrote: »

Please don't post your results, which can lead to bias feed back as you see everyone said raise the flop above.

I agree that OP shouldn't post the results. That being said, I didn't advocate for a raise because I saw the results; I'd advocate for a raise here every single time, and I'll explain why.

1) As I noted initially, there needs to be semi-bluffs in a raise range, and this is the best one.

2) Let's agree that it's HIGHLY unlikely that SB is donking with complete air. It's just not likely enough to give it too much consideration unless SB is a maniac capable of double- or triple-barreling with absolutely nothing.

3) Let's say that SB has pocket 77s or pocket 10s. Yeah, we're screwed. But, would SB really lead out with that hand??

3) Let's say that SB has a 7. Balls. In this rare case, we still have considerable equity when called. Again, would SB really likely lead out with this hand?

4) Let's say that SB has a 10. Depending on SB's kicker, folding, calling, and raising are all possible. Either our A or K -- if not both -- would be good if it hits, as would all our hearts. That makes it approximately a coin-flip. So, if SB folds -- great: we just got a better hand on the flop to fold. If SB calls -- great: we can apply further pressure on the turn. If SB raises/shoves -- fine: this is our "worst" case scenario. We can call it off getting great odds given our equity.

5) Let's say that SB has a pocket pair. It's unlikely that SB has KK or AA. So, we're in even a better situation that in #4 since both our A and our K would be good it hits. We gain three outs (the A or the K) and lose one (the heart that would complete V's boat). So, we still raise.

6) Let's say that SB has a draw. If we raise, there's a good chance that SB would call or shove for the same reasons that OP would consider either option. There are very, very, very few draws that would donk bet here and fold to a raise. It just doesn't fit the profile.

7) Finally, if OP calls and if the heart hits, we're going to have a brutally difficult time getting paid off by anything that we beat other than a smaller flush. By calling, we would win the minimum when we hit.

In sum, by raising, OP would fold out many hands that is ahead of him on the flop and not likely fold out all the hands behind him. And he has enough equity to call a check-shove without a problem.

Finally, if you're OP and you have AA, KK, AT, A7, a raise would be appropriate here, too, given the wet board.

@Austin: I would agree with you if you said that flat-calling AKh and the hands that I listed in the previous sentence was a +EV play. I would agree with you 100%. I just don't think that it is the optimal play; raising, IMO, is.

bigburge10

What mistakes will V make when we flat vs when we raise? We likely have a ton of equity against their range. If they happen to have a flush draw, obviously we're happy to keep that in. We can rep just about any over card. So, I think I lean towards flatting with this particular hand. I would be more inclined to raise with lesser hearts like 65hh. Most other hands like QJhh likely have two overs and a good heart draw.

Wiki_Leaks

I think i prefer flatting here. Our opponent's call out of the sb and our utg raise suggest villain will have more Tx and other high equity holdings more often than we will. Because of this, we should not be raising much of our range here. We are blocking a ton of his bluffs, and many of the remaining bluffs will be combo draws villain can shove on you (as well as his Tx.) With AKhh you have some SDV in position and will likely get paid off by Tx hands when you make a flush. I think we have some other hands that rate as better bluff candidates like 98s, AhXy (where X blocks possible Tx) and maybe A9-8hh.

Austin

Flop (7bb)
SB bets 5bb
Hero 82 bb effective raises to 17bb
SB all in 82bb
Hero 65bb more to call to win 106bb

getting less than 2 to 1 with just a flush draw against likely hand of Tx. Yes, he can have some 9h8h hands from the SB, but not much else in terms of combo draws that would jam. Majority of his hands will be 77 or Tx since we block most flush draws. If he does have Tx are A and K are not live, so we are left with 8 to 9 outs depending on his flush draw.

As Wikki mentioned above SB will have more Tx in his range than UTG range in general.

I will add that raising here does not balance our calling range. This topic keeps coming up a lot with balance. We either off set our raising range or off set our calling range.

Raising with hands like or would be good and flatting hands such as NFD or weak Tx so both ranges have strong hands as well as draws in them. Raising range will have some of your strongest hands and weakest draws, while your flatting range can have some of your weaker Tx hands and stronger draws in them. Leaves SB in a tough spot on the turn depending on his hand.