AA on a suited flop, bet and get raised

bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
This hand occurred at 1/2 NL at Caesars, Las Vegas.

Relative stack size (mine) is 300.00. I had just sat down and had very little info on the lineup, but the button who had the $5.00 straddle on impressed me as most liikely bring LAG. UTG open limps for $5.00, I am UTG+2 with two red Aces and raise to 20, both the straddler and the limper call. Pot = 63.00. Flop is 872 all diamonds. Check to me, I lead for 30.00, button raises to 90.00, UTG mucks, pot is now 183.00, I have 250.left and shove, he snap calls and shows 63 diamonds, the runout is two small cards with a diamond so I luck out and wn the pot.

After a review, as played it appears that my equity is only about 33%, that is giving villian a range of flushes, sets and 87. As he didnt 3bet flop, what else could he have to make that flop raise, given that he cant have a big flush draw as I have the ace of diamonds?? I am wondering now if the shove was correct, perhaps a fold would have been more + EV in the long run? I dont know how to figure this out, given the stack and pot size I gave above, can someone show me how to make this calculation?

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,754 ✭✭✭✭
    $1/$2 + straddle $5 basically makes it $5 bb, so I would have my open here at $20-$25, so after a limper $25-$30 preflop.

    post flop cbet half pot is fine, but once you get raised I would just go into call down mode since you have a blocker to NFD. Hard to imagine him raising anything worse than two pair on a monotone flop. If he is raising hands like jj-99, then I guess 3 betting is ok, but prefer to flat the other 60 and just hold on tight.
  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    What about a concern of losing market if a flush card comes on turn?
  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    As usual didnt raise enough preflop, a leak I am working on.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 420 ✭✭✭
    I'm fine getting it in on this flop. You have like 50bb since this was a straddle pot. Nothing wrong with getting it in imo
  • Chris FChris F Red Chipper Posts: 155 ✭✭
    When things like this happen im reminded of what Ed Miller says about not paying people off. "The vast majority of 1/2 players dont bluff enough to be profitable to try and call them on it. If they act aggressive and rep a big hand, they probably have it." Not his exact words but close enough.

    Last month almost every big pot I lost was because I ignored that advice and got too sticky with pocket pairs and refused to fold when opponents went all in representing flushes and straights.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,754 ✭✭✭✭
    Chris F wrote: »
    When things like this happen im reminded of what Ed Miller says about not paying people off. "The vast majority of 1/2 players dont bluff enough to be profitable to try and call them on it. If they act aggressive and rep a big hand, they probably have it." Not his exact words but close enough.

    Last month almost every big pot I lost was because I ignored that advice and got too sticky with pocket pairs and refused to fold when opponents went all in representing flushes and straights.

    This spot is a little different given Hero has a bunch of equity.

    :Ah :Ad

    flop ($63) :8d :7d :2d

    If you take hero's hand :Ah :Ad

    vs

    Villains range: 22, 77, 88, 99-JJ (w/ diamond), 87s, Td9d - KdQd, Jd9d-KdJd, Qd9d-KdTd

    Despite most of those hands having hero beat, hero still have 41% equity.

    Usually HU we want 51%+ equity to shove all in, which is why I recommend just calling the raise and holding on.

    I'm not worried about playing "what if a diamond hits the turn and we lose value?" We are making +EV decisions in present time. We can't predict future cards. Just our hand vs villians range and make the most +EV play from there.

    As Hero stated once villian raises pot is $183 and we have to call $60 (3:1), so given our 41% equity it is an easy call down spot.

    you see a ton of these TP + NFD type hands where people keep shoving and if you read a lot of the professional feed back, its to call down rather than to try and flip or force our the weaker range of villains hand.

    No one is saying to fold here given with the straddle your 60bb effective.
  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    Given your assumptions above, If I call the raise on the flop, and a brick comes down on the turn, and Villian shoves, can I find a call now?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,754 ✭✭✭✭
    bamboo wrote: »
    Given your assumptions above, If I call the raise on the flop, and a brick comes down on the turn, and Villian shoves, can I find a call now?

    Call 60
    Turn (243) remaining stack 190
    He shoves
    190 to win 433 getting 2.5 to 1 need 30% equity. Its probably break even vs overall range
  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    Thanks Austin, this was helpful.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 800 ✭✭✭
    I think both shoving and calling have merit. Depends if you want to play (overly?) aggro or more "on the line".
    The big difference is the variance (I put the assumption that calling and raising are +EV, even if it's questionable depending on V range). If you shove, and get called, you will still lose your whole stack a lot of the time - almost 70% of the time! - even if (depending on V range ofc) it may be +EV move. Which means that you, and your bankroll, have to be prepare to have big down- and upswings ; when you just call, you take less risk for your stack, and for your bankroll.

    Big things to consider too are V's range and profile.
    -> Does V raise only with a flush or also with other hands (like OESD, sets, 2P, TP+bckdFD) ? I.e. what is our equity ?
    -> If you call and a 4th :DIAMOND: comes, how will V act ? Esp. if he has a small made flush. I.e. what are your implied odds to be paid when we hit ?

    Finally, yes, we play 1/2 mostly in an exploitative way. But don't forget you should have a balanced range. When you shove on the flop, do you do it only with a nut FD and made flush? If yes, this allow (better) players to play perfectly against you because you're suddenly playing face up.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,754 ✭✭✭✭
    :8d :7d :2d

    I do not think we should have much of a shoving range here when facing aggression on this monotone flop.
  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    I am comfortable with the variance associated with aggressive play at 1/2 and 1/3 and have the bankroll for that, up to 150 BB stacks. I am not yet comfortable with deep stack play beyond 150 BB. In the Vegas 2/5 games the stacks can run 300 BB or more, and I dont want to play with a short stack. So staying away from 2/5, at least for now. At Wynn-Encore you can buy into the 2/5 for 1500.00, and many do. Out of the question for me.

    My long term win rate at 1/3 is only about 17/hour, not good enough, I need to improve. I think it should could be in the 25/30 range. when that happens I will consider playing 2/5.

    This is why I am at Re d Chip, to learn. Also practicing online at WSOP.com in full ring NL50, ( 4+ bb/100 over 100T hands) where the games are much tougher than any of the 1/2, 1/3 live games.
    Your comments are much appreciated and very helpful, thank you.
  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    Thanks to both Austin and Red for shedding a lot of light on this situation.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,754 ✭✭✭✭
    Move on up. Won't get much better than $17\hr at 1\3. 6bb is a great win rate.

    Factor in the rake, if its a $5 drop about $150 comes off the table every hour, so hard to have high win rates with a large drop, same drop at 2\5.
  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    Unless I want to short stack bankroll wont allow it. 1500 hours short stacking 2/5 my win rate was lower at 2/5 than full stack 1/3! (short stack 300-400). Bankroll is around 10T, so have to excercise caution.