PF 3bet with JJ in MWP with risk of entering small SPR pot HU

Luuk vLuuk v Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
888 Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 54 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
MP: 112.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP+1: 48 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP+2: 157 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: 60.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (BTN): 112.5 BB
SB: 106 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
BB: 105.5 BB (VPIP: 17.86, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 85)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.22, PFR: 8.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :Jc :Jh

UTG raises to 3 BB, UTG+1 calls 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, Hero?

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At this point I am really not sure what to do. Folding is of course not an option. If I put in a massive raise (say 10x) and get called I will be in a really small SPR pot with JJ where more often than not I will hit an overcard on the flop. With a call I will keep the pot relatively small and I have a good hand and am IP, but maybe the hand is too good to just flat here? Or should I just make a large raise, hoping to either get all folds (which would be great)? And if I get one or more callers I will get the rest of my stack in there with 0 (or sometimes 1) overcard?

Comments

  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 152 ✭✭
    Being that no one has responded I will tell you what I would do.

    16.5BB in the pot and you have JJ on the button and the original raiser has 100 BB. Stack size is important especially in this situation. If he was short stacked then you need to decide now if you will be playing for stacks. If not, then limp and play bingo. You have a 2 out of 50 chance of getting a Jack and feeling good about your hand.

    BET! Bet for value. Or bet to collect "dead money", but bet. You have a good starting hand. You have the 4th or 5th best starting hand depending on who you are asking (I say 4th). You have position. If you are not 3-betting JJ in position, "then what hands are you 3-betting with"?

    I am not a HUD aficionado and my online play is very limited so I am not familiar with HUD stats.

    How much do you bet? With 112 BB being the effective stack. You seem to be worried that you will be committed due to SPR. You have 100 BB, you are not short stacked. This shouldn't be a concern.

    At the minimum I would bet 15 - 20 BB in this spot and if I get shoved on I would fold. If you bet less it will give the players pot odds to call and we know when one calls then everyone else feels as though they are "priced-in".

  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 152 ✭✭
    If you bet 15 -20 BB like I suggest and the original raiser calls and the short stack UTG+1: (54 BB) moves all-in then I would shove all-in. You get it all-in PF with the 4th best starting hand. If you are up against a higher PP then you are a 5:1 underdog. Use your "one time".
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 152 ✭✭
    [/quote]
    At the minimum I would bet 15 - 20 BB in this spot and if I get shoved on I would fold. If you bet less it will give the players pot odds to call and we know when one calls then everyone else feels as though they are "priced-in".

    I meant to say If you get shoved on by the original raiser then I would fold PF.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,754 ✭✭✭✭
    Utg 16\8 but small sample size. At this point I like capping most of my squeeze plays around 5x so 15BB. It is 2NL though so if the players are loose 20BB is fine as well.

    If you make it 30c and get 1 caller, you can still bet half pot and fold on the flop if you are raised. You wanna stay under 38% commitment point. I don't think I would fold after 3 bet squeezing here unless I had larger sample. Too much dead money in the middle.

    Favorable flop I would still half pot it and jam most turns.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 913 ✭✭✭✭
    Being that no one has responded I will tell you what I would do.

    16.5BB in the pot and you have JJ on the button and the original raiser has 100 BB. Stack size is important especially in this situation. If he was short stacked then you need to decide now if you will be playing for stacks. If not, then limp and play bingo. You have a 2 out of 50 chance of getting a Jack and feeling good about your hand.

    How much do you bet? With 112 BB being the effective stack. You seem to be worried that you will be committed due to SPR. You have 100 BB, you are not short stacked. This shouldn't be a concern.

    If Hero decided to raise pre here, the SPR will be low and he will likely be committed on many flops. He will have to raise large pre to price out all of the callers and therefore will have a lower SPR that will often commit him post flop.

    Hero does not have a "2 out of 50" chance to hit a Jack on the flop. That would equate to flopping a set 4% of the time. The easiest way to calculate the odds are by calculating the probably of not flopping a set. Since there are three cards, it is:

    48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 = 103,776/117,600 which equates to NOT flopping a set approximately 88% of the time, which means we will flop a set approximately 12% of the time.
  • Luuk vLuuk v Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    Being that no one has responded I will tell you what I would do.

    16.5BB in the pot and you have JJ on the button and the original raiser has 100 BB. Stack size is important especially in this situation. If he was short stacked then you need to decide now if you will be playing for stacks. If not, then limp and play bingo. You have a 2 out of 50 chance of getting a Jack and feeling good about your hand.

    How much do you bet? With 112 BB being the effective stack. You seem to be worried that you will be committed due to SPR. You have 100 BB, you are not short stacked. This shouldn't be a concern.

    If Hero decided to raise pre here, the SPR will be low and he will likely be committed on many flops. He will have to raise large pre to price out all of the callers and therefore will have a lower SPR that will often commit him post flop.

    Exactly, that's my point. Say I make it 20BB to go, if I get one caller the SPR will be 2...

    On which flops do I consider myself commited then? I guess one overcard is fine, but what about two?
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 152 ✭✭
    @Ninjah Thank you for responding to this thread.

    You are correct that my analogy of "2 out of 50" is incorrect.

    How would you play JJ in this case?

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 913 ✭✭✭✭
    @Ninjah Thank you for responding to this thread.

    You are correct that my analogy of "2 out of 50" is incorrect.

    How would you play JJ in this case?

    It is a very tricky spot for sure. I think that if we can get through the initial raiser, we can take this down a decent amount of the time preflop. I would raise to around 20bb with the intention of folding to a 4b from the initial raiser (as you stated). If UTG calls then we are trying to realize our equity post-flop since we're on the button, unless we hit the flop hard. If UTG folds but someone else calls I'm probably stacking off on most flops.
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 152 ✭✭
    @Ninjah

    By betting PF do you feel that we are SPR committing ourselves?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,754 ✭✭✭✭
    38% is the stack percentage you do not want to commit. Raising 15-20 is only 15-20%. So you can still make a small cbet and not be committed. SPR is just a guideline, but doesn't really apply in multiway pots where the ranges are stronger.
    Say you raise 18bb pre
    Flop (40bb)
    Axx flop I would bet fold
    KQx bet fold

    Qxx would be a little more tricky. For example on Qxx(ss) I may bet call it off with one spade in my hand.

    Just have to make the best guess possible Post Flop given the hud stats, timing tells, texture etc.

    Starts with a large raise preflop 15-20 and 1\4th to half pot cbet.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 913 ✭✭✭✭
    @Ninjah

    By betting PF do you feel that we are SPR committing ourselves?

    SPR is a tool but we have to think logically. Flop comes AKx vs. UTG raiser then there's no reason to continue regardless of SPR.
  • morel huntermorel hunter Red Chipper Posts: 152 ✭✭
    Thank you @Ninjah for the reply.

    @Luuk v I believe Austin and Ninjah have sufficiently filled in the blanks. GL