River Decision facing OOP Aggression From PF Raiser

mxp2004mxp2004 Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
This hand comes from the Borgata Summer Poker Open Seniors Event ($300+40). The decision I had to make on the river has been bothering me a lot, and I'd like to get some thoughts on how others would respond to Villain's line and river bet.

The hand took place late in the tournament with about 3 tables and 23 players left. Top 18 paid.

The blinds were 2,500/5,000 + 500 ante. Effective stacks were $250K, with Villain covering Hero. The table was short with 7 players.

Although not at the table for very long, Villain seemed liked an above-average player. He was playing relatively tight, but would definitely open for a raise, especially in later position. His play suggested that he was taking advantage of the late-stage tightness of the players when he could while in position.

Hero likely had a similar image in Villain's eyes, but was probably regarded as playing tighter preflop. Villain had seen Hero 3-bet from the SB against another player's 2.5BB preflop raise, and Hero showed Kings that time. Subsequently, Hero also 3-bet Villain when Hero was in the SB and Villain opened from the CO with a raise to 3BB. Hero did not show his Jacks on that occasion when Villain folded to the 3-bet.

Preflop, Villain raised to $15K after a few folds. Hero called on the button with Ac 9c. One of the blinds called, and everyone else folded.

Flop [$51K]: Qs 8c 7s

Everyone checked.

Turn [$51K]: Qs 8c 7s Jc

Everyone checked to Hero. Hero decided to bet $35K with a flush draw, gutshot straight draw, and an Ace. Only Villain called.

River [$121K] Qs 8c 7s Jc Ad

Villain led out on the river for $65K.

I honestly didn't know what to make of that bet. Rolling back the action and Villain's line, his opening range was relatively wide and included a lot of suited Aces, pairs, and Broadway cards. All are consistent with an open-raise in later position.

It's hard to see Villain slow playing both the flop and turn with any overpairs, top pair, sets, or two-pair hands against two players on a semi-coordinated board. Of course, they're possible, if unlikely.

It's also hard to see him not leading the turn with a hand like AJ, KJ, or QJ once the Jack fell. Again, these hands are possible, but not particularly consistent with his line.

So if he was drawing on the turn, it was either with KT or As-Xs. KT made a straight on the river, and there are more suited Aces that beat me than not (I can beat A6-A2; I lose to AK-AT and A8-A7; I tie A9).

That just leaves bluffs that I can beat. Are there enough of those that he might choose to bet on this particular river with a missed draw or an underpair to the Ace?

What would you do facing this bet and why?

Comments

  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 192 ✭✭✭
    Why are you calling this pre? What's his preflop range and why is it a profitable flat from the button?
    Why are you bluffing this combo on the turn? What are you going to do if you get check raised? What is his continuing range? Do above average players check/fold AK on this turn?
    Does the population tend to lead rivers with a balanced, bluff heavy, or value heavy range?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭✭
    I think villain can easily have AJ or AT here. KT from MP probably not, but you did say he was trying to take advantage near the bubble, so that is possible as well.

    On the flop and turn I am likely checking behind because if you do bet, when you miss the river you likely have to bet again to get folds. Its hard for you to have a good hand on the turn when you bet as JJ and QQ 3 bet preflop, 88 & 77 bet the flop as well as Qx. Where does that leave your range? Gives you some flush draws and KJs+ on the turn, which more of a bluff heavy range than a value range.

    People think ace on a river is a good bluff card, but in this situation ace on the river is a good value hand and hits the ranges pretty hard overall. I could see villain checking a lot of weaker Ax hands that hit top pair, but missed their flush.

    I think river is a hero fold. In real time it may seem nitty, but I dont see much you beat that he would check call and lead river on given line taken.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭✭
    Villain's bluffing and value ranges appear to be very narrow. Most of their bluffs and value hands likely would be bet on the flop or turn given this board texture. So, I think their range is a medium strength hand. The question becomes whether this player would turn some of these hands into bluffs on the river. Or, did they simply improve a hand like A8 or A7? I would guess that given this player's line, it's unlikely that they are turning their hand into a bluff now and that they have actually improved.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 721 ✭✭✭
    mxp2004 wrote: »
    Turn [$51K]: Qs 8c 7s Jc

    Everyone checked to Hero. Hero decided to bet $35K with a flush draw, gutshot straight draw, and an Ace. Only Villain called.

    River [$121K] Qs 8c 7s Jc Ad

    If you were betting the turn with a flush draw, gutshot, and an Ace, then you bet the river when any of those hit, likely $65,000. In which case, calling $65,000 with any of those should be nearly a no-brainer. Otherwise, don't factor the Ace into your turn bet.

    That being said, if V looks at you as a tight/strong player, it's possible that you could be betting the turn with a combo draw without an Ace or even with a Jack. You'd recognize V's weakness and think that you have a good chance to steal a pot. Ad misses all your draws, and Axc or AK could be in V's range. In other words, he likely has enough fold equity alone here to bet any two cards. That makes this an almost definite call for me.

    Again, if you don't want to be in this river position, then you have three options: pre-flop fold, pre-flop raise, or turn check.