Hand vs Straddle's range pushing over us on the flop

Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
edited July 23 in Live Poker Hands
Hero is playing in a loose $1/$2/$5btn live CG. 5 handed when the hand takes place.

UTG straddles to $5, folds to the button who calls, Hero ($280) finds himself with :TS: :TC: in the BB and makes it $30. UTG tanks and calls. Button folds. V covers H.

H views V as a spewy LAG.

Flop ($66 pot): :9D: :5C: :2D:

H bets $44, making the pot $110, leaving himself with $206 remaining.

V raises to $140 and makes the pot $250, having H to call $96. H figures he needs to be good 27.8% of the time in order to simply call. If H simply calls he'll have $110 remaining on the turn with a pot of $346. H figures he needs to be ahead at least 27.8%, and comes to the conclusion that he is at least that, and since there are too many draws in villain's range that will pay the maximum right now but not on later streets H decides to go all in, realizing very well that V is going to be calling with about anything at this point. V calls. By making the shove, and expecting a call, H needs to be good at least 36.4% of the time to justify the shove, as the shove is $206 into the pot, after V calls, of $566.

What's your opinion on this hand? Here's my thoughts: V is a spewy lag, he's protecting his straddle with a very wide range of hands, without raising, or roughly 21% of hands: JJ-22,AJo-A7o,KJo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KJs-K6s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s. That's 261 combos. I've added JJ as the top of his range, I think he'd raise it the majority of the time but added it for arguments sakes.

The flop hits V's range with about 99 combos, JJ-55,22,A9o,A9s,A5s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,98s-97s,75s,65s,54s,AdJd,AdTd,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad4d,Ad3d,KdJd,KdTd,Kd8d,Kd7d,Kd6d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd8d,Qd7d,JdTd,Jd8d,Jd7d,Td8d,Td7d,8d7d,8d6d,7d6d,6d4d, matching sets, two pairs, overpairs, top pairs, pp below tp, middle pairs, flushdraws, etc. I think this is a perfect spot for V to bluff with a flushdraw and since this board does not hit H's range at all (beside overpairs) one can figure that V might think that he's ahead with top pairs or middle pairs.

According to Flopzilla V's range is best 15.15% of the time, the hand's range is best 83% of the time. Given this observation I'd think that the all in shove is the right thing to do but what's your opinion?

For argument's sake I'd like to add in a range for an unknown who'd defend his straddle and make the push on the flop vs H's range: roughly 8.42% of hands or 91 combos: QQ-77,AQo-AJo,KQo,AJs-A9s,KJs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s

42 of those combos I can see make the move on the flop: QQ-77,A9s,T9s,98s,AdJd,AdTd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd. This range is best 35.7% of the time and the hand is best 61.9% of the time.

Given these ranges, both for the spewy lag and the unknown range, can we ever fold the flop or not make the shove with the remaining stack?

Should we be adding more overpairs into V's range (being sneaky) or discount some flushdraws or underpairs that significantly change the calculations? Is this a nobrainer push or very player dependent in your opinion?

I'll consider adding what V showed up with but I think it's irrelevant.

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭✭
    If we treat the straddle as $5 = BB
    SPR almost 4
    56BB effective

    I think its an easy flop shove.
  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 72 ✭✭
    edited July 23
    Our opponent probably is raising us because he thinks we missed the flop. He doesn't even need outs if he is a truly spewy LAG. Perfect time for him to spring into action with any two overcards or even just a single Ace or King.
    If we were super-deep we would have to call but it would not be a great situation. In fact if we were super deep we probably wouldn't have bet the flop in the first place.
    But at this stack depth, betting and getting it in is standard. You want to not only charge draws that will call a shove, but you also want to deny equity to his overcards and gutshots that want to see the turn when his range is as well disguised as his. Also one thing that makes spewy LAGs so spewy is that they assume their opponents are making moves that need to be punished WAY more than they actually are. He will not give us credit for a real hand and think we are shoving with at best with a flush draw but more likely we just have AK or KQ. If we bet the flop at this stack depth it is precisely because we intend on getting it in against a raise from a player who will not believe us because he thinks we have AK. He won't stack off with gutshots, but he might with any pair or any Ace.
    Make him pay. Don't call the raise with TT.
    It isnt a given that he will keep bluffing no matter what since we show so much strength by calling, and thus if any over card shows up or a gutshot/2pair hand he might actually be planned to shut down unless he hits because a call actually is going to rep more strength in his eyes than a shove. He will think that you want him to keep firing. You wouldnt know if it was his plan to shut down. You would just say, "oh, he's spewy; I have to keep calling". So there are some serious reverse implied odds issues with a hand whose equity is as non-robust as TT on this board. But right now it is one of the highest percentile hand on this board.
    Push that edge, punish this player, let him spew it all on the flop when he knows if he gets it in he will get to see both cards at least and he could already be ahead with any pair or A-high, so he thinks.
    :Jd :Tc
  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    Make him pay. Don't call the raise with TT. [...]
    Push that edge, punish this player, let him spew it all on the flop when he knows if he gets it in he will get to see both cards at least and he could already be ahead with any pair or A-high, so he thinks.

    That's what I did, I agree with you and Austin. Especially against this player type.

    I wonder though if I'm being too ambitious here against an unknown. I don't think so, however. I think V is trying to get us off missed over-cards with some pair or a draw the majority of the time in this case. His range should be capped when he only calls preflop and decides to raise the flop. He could be trapping, but how many trappers are raising the flop and to this extent? Probably not many.
  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    I'm allowing you to guess V's hand for fun:
    :JH: :JC:
  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 72 ✭✭
    edited July 24
    Jónas S wrote: »
    I'm allowing you to guess V's hand for fun:
    :JH: :JC:

    Yeah he will probably think that that hand also beats your AK and flushdraws.
    :Jd :Tc
  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    Jónas S wrote: »
    I'm allowing you to guess V's hand for fun:
    :JH: :JC:

    Yeah he will probably think that that hand also beats your AK and flushdraws.
    :Jd :Tc

    Yes, pretty much the only hand that we didn't want to see out of villain's range, excluding sets.
  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 72 ✭✭
    edited July 24
    I will say that against a somewhat aggressive, smarter player who has better ranges and hand-reads better, with deeper stacks, we could bet and call, not only hoping to see a cheap showdown if he gives up, but also turning our hand into a bluff, repping a hand like AdKd if an A or K or diamond shows up on the turn; that's allot of bluff outs, as long as it is deep enough that it's believable that we don't want to shovel all the money in on a draw OTF. If he views us as not-crazy his range will be weighted toward 99-QQ since our raise was large. He could have other hands since he has position. But if we fear that once he calls pre and raises the flop he often has a pair better than ours(maybe even a few tricky KK if he thinks we are more likely to barrel or value-own ourselves, and less likely to call a 3-bet) but also some other hands, then turning our hand into a bluff double barrel on turn and river when the Ah shows or a diamond on the turn will be sweet from my perspective.
    :Jd :Tc