A dangerous situation on the flop

bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
This hand played out at 1/2 NL at Caesars in LV.

My image is that of the tight "old guy" sitting in UTG+3. Average stacks are around 300.00, my stack is 300.00. Game is loose with a lot of gambling I am the only tight player and have not
played a pot in over an hour.

UTG limps, UTG+1 raises to 12.00, UTG+2 calls, holding 99 I flat, two players behind me also call, blinds muck, UTG calls, 6 way pot = $73.00. Flop is 855 two diamonds, I have the 9 of diamonds. All check inc the PFR to the player on my immediate right who bets 25.00, Since no one 3B preflop, and the raiser checked, I reasoned my hand could welll be best, and with my tight image a raise by me would get a lot of folds, I had played with the guy who bet 25.00 before and knew he had a wide range, I raised to 60.00.

What does everyone think of my raise on the flop, too risky? Would a call or even a fold been more long term EV?

Will post the rest of the hand in a couple of days, dont want to influence the comments.

Comments

  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 218 ✭✭
    edited July 2017
    Six ways, eh? You won't be taking control of this hand with 99 IMO. Count the ugly turn cards: Diamonds, T and up, 8s, maybe 4s, 6s and 7s. Everyone downstream will be getting 2 1/2+ to 1 on a call.

    Once I decline to 3! with 88, 99, TT I'm mostly set mining.

    Anyhow, this is nitty but folding OTF isn't a bad play.
  • nickyblindsnickyblinds Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
    Maybe raise a little more, the 25 c-bet seems more like a probe bet. If you think your hand is best, like you said, I would raise a little more. A pot sized raise would be 158, so maybe around 100. 99 is a vulnerable hand to overs, and strait and flush draws, so its probably only worth 1 street of value. If he has a hand like 10-10, JJ, AK, he's put on the spot because if he calls, he knows he's putting his whole stack at risk.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think enough good things can happen that a raise to $100 isn't unreasonable. An 8 could call, a bunch of overcards can fold, and you could even get a better hand to fold by repping a 5, which isn't totally unreasonable for you to have. The runout won't be easy to play but there's a good chance you take it down now or at least get heads up.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    1) I don't mind the raise, and I agree that more is better... But...

    2) If you are that tight of a player, could this hand really have smashed your range? It might be hard to rep a made hand.
  • Nathan SNathan S Red Chipper Posts: 275 ✭✭
    One pot in an hour? Why!?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's not unusual to have an hour with 25 hands dealt, and it's not unusual to only get 1 or 2 playable hands in that stretch (or even 0), and it's not unusual at a loose gambly table for you to be forced out of those 1 or 2 hands due to the situation being bad.
  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    Preflop I dont like 3 betting in this spot, The raiser is very early and could have a tight range, I like flatting and set mining.

    Postflop vs the $25.00 bet, I dont like caling at all. Way out of position and vulnerable to a raise.. That leaves raising and folding. Actually I think folding is ok, and in retrospect is probably the best long term EV play. Raising to 60 is too small and doesnt accomplish much, other than bloat the sie of the pot. I think raising to 100+ is much better, and perhaps nothing wrong with this if you feel like gambling. Is this move plus EV? I have no idea, can anyone show me how to figure this out? There are a lot of unknowns. The bad news is that puts over a third of my stack in the pot, so I am pretty much committed, and folding to a shove might be a big mistake when you know a big draw cold be making a move. I dont see how folding to the $25.00 bet could be wrong.

    It would be helpful if some pro could show me how to think about and evaluate this situation in real time.
  • tripletiretripletire Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    bamboo wrote: »
    Since no one 3B preflop, and the raiser checked, I reasoned my hand could welll be best, and with my tight image a raise by me would get a lot of folds

    I know the point you're getting at and it's a very important one to understand, but it's still such a contradictory statement that I need to ask if you can explain your thoughts here, and why they hold up
  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    tripletire wrote: »
    bamboo wrote: »
    Since no one 3B preflop, and the raiser checked, I reasoned my hand could welll be best, and with my tight image a raise by me would get a lot of folds

    I know the point you're getting at and it's a very important one to understand, but it's still such a contradictory statement that I need to ask if you can explain your thoughts here, and why they hold up

    I dont understand your question, can you explain or restate it. Why is my statement contradictory?
  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    bamboo wrote: »
    tripletire wrote: »
    bamboo wrote: »
    Since no one 3B preflop, and the raiser checked, I reasoned my hand could welll be best, and with my tight image a raise by me would get a lot of folds

    I know the point you're getting at and it's a very important one to understand, but it's still such a contradictory statement that I need to ask if you can explain your thoughts here, and why they hold up

    I dont understand your question, can you explain or restate it. Why is my statement contradictory?

    If someone had 99 beat good chance they would reraise the EP raiser. The raiser looks like he missed, cause he didnt bet. No one behnd me me 3B. maybe 99 is good at the moment?? With a tight image, perhaps rest of the field will think I have a 5, perhaps even fold TT?
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 218 ✭✭
    edited July 2017
    Maybe raise a little more, the 25 c-bet seems more like a probe bet. If you think your hand is best, like you said, I would raise a little more. A pot sized raise would be 158, so maybe around 100.
    jeffnc wrote: »
    I think enough good things can happen that a raise to $100 isn't unreasonable.
    bamboo wrote: »
    The bad news is that (flop raise to $100 or more) puts over a third of my stack in the pot, so I am pretty much committed, and folding to a shove might be a big mistake when you know a big draw cold be making a move. I dont see how folding to the $25.00 bet could be wrong.

    I'd love to here from the advocates of this flop raise and how they might handle any aggressive action later in the hand. Let's say OTF you raise to $100 and a shorter stack of $200 shoves. What to do? Say one of the early flop checker flats the 100 then leads out for his stack on the turn or river.

    The $25 flop bet in front of you looks for all the world to be the diamond draw. $100 doesn't price him out.

    For me it's simple. If I get into this situation I'm committed. So I'm not getting involved.

  • bamboobamboo Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    ["For me it's simple. If I get into this situation I'm committed. So I'm not getting involved"

    I like the above.!

    To wrap it up, everyone folded back to the player who bet 25, and he called the 35.00 raised. Turn is a 9! Villan checked, I bet 60 and he shoved. River is a blank. Villan shows 67 diamonds, had a st flush draw, made a straight on the turn. Talk about a lucky hand!
  • nickyblindsnickyblinds Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
    I'd love to here from the advocates of this flop raise and how they might handle any aggressive action later in the hand. Let's say OTF you raise to $100 and a shorter stack of $200 shoves. What to do? Say one of the early flop checker flats the 100 then leads out for his stack on the turn or river.

    The $25 flop bet in front of you looks for all the world to be the diamond draw. $100 doesn't price him out.

    For me it's simple. If I get into this situation I'm committed. So I'm not getting involved.

    :9d:9s has 62% equity vs. exactly :6d:7d, and 67% vs, a 20% OR of all pp, broadways and 54s+ according to equilab. Folding to pressure, or not applying pressure yourself seems way to nitty to me. Just my opinion. Honestly I didnt realize the equity advantage of 99 vs. exactly :6d:7d untill I ran it through equilab.
  • nickyblindsnickyblinds Red Chipper Posts: 33 ✭✭
    I'd love to here from the advocates of this flop raise and how they might handle any aggressive action later in the hand. Let's say OTF you raise to $100 and a shorter stack of $200 shoves. What to do? Say one of the early flop checker flats the 100 then leads out for his stack on the turn or river.

    The $25 flop bet in front of you looks for all the world to be the diamond draw. $100 doesn't price him out.

    For me it's simple. If I get into this situation I'm committed. So I'm not getting involved.

    :9d:9s has 62% equity vs. exactly :6d:7d, and 67% vs, a 20% OR of all pp, broadways and 54s+ according to equilab. Folding to pressure, or not applying pressure yourself seems way to nitty to me. Just my opinion. Honestly I didnt realize the equity advantage of 99 vs. exactly :6d:7d untill I ran it through equilab.

    Btw, I forgot to mention I ran that against a 855 two diamond board.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    Raising or flatting flop (& evaluating turn action) are both good plays in their respective ways. Obviously each has major drawbacks as well -- which is why folding even makes sense if villain CBet bigger.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    et's say OTF you raise to $100 and a shorter stack of $200 shoves. What to do?

    I'm calling that.

    There's also the concept of "conditional commitment", where you're committing your stack unless certain obvious things happen. For example, an 8 comes on the turn and villain shoves into you. But let's say if raised and called and then checked to, you're committed.

  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 218 ✭✭
    Me: I'd love to here from the advocates of this flop raise and how they might handle any aggressive action later in the hand. Let's say OTF you raise to $100 and a shorter stack of $200 shoves. What to do? Say one of the early flop checker flats the 100 then leads out for his stack on the turn or river.

    The $25 flop bet in front of you looks for all the world to be the diamond draw. $100 doesn't price him out.

    For me it's simple. If I get into this situation I'm committed. So I'm not getting involved.
    :9d:9s has 62% equity vs. exactly :6d:7d, and 67% vs, a 20% OR of all pp, broadways and 54s+ according to equilab. Folding to pressure, or not applying pressure yourself seems way to nitty to me. Just my opinion. Honestly I didnt realize the equity advantage of 99 vs. exactly :6d:7d untill I ran it through equilab.

    You have five opponents, not one. Your calculations are result based and worth little.

    Also, you quote my questions but failed to answer.

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