KK wtf do I do?

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
Utg loose player 100vpip calling every thing stacking off any pair.

Utg call 3
Hero 15
Heads up to the flop

Flop ($31) :8d:7d:Jc
Utg bet 60
Hero ($203) ???

Comments

  • Duncan TDuncan T Red Chipper Posts: 55 ✭✭
    Much as I hate to suggest a stack off an overpair on a wet board I would jam. If you start from any two you still have 68% against all made hands otf and pretty much the same if you include draws.

    If you do lose it shouldn't take long to get your money back from a 100VPIP clown, unless someone else takes it first.

    I had the pleasure of playing someone like this, flatted any raise PF, insta-shoved any draw or pair otf. Interestingly though he'd slow play 2pair+ which made life easier, not quite sure what the thought process was behind polarizing his checking range and jamming everything else but meh... made some cash

  • PondyPondy Red Chipper Posts: 150 ✭✭
    Shove! The way you described villain he will have a lot more here than a straight or a set or 2 pair. If he is really such a fish, I would't be surprised to see 75s here and I definitely expect A8o, JT, etc. I plugged his range into Flopilla and our equity is 58%. I didn't give him any flush draws because of his bet size, but if we include a few of those, our equity goes up even more.
    And it sounds as if he will call your shove with any made hand, even if it is 3rd pair, so this is an easy stack off for me - if your assumptions about villain are correct.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes I decided to shove after thinking about what turn cards are good for me. Wasn't enough good ones so I shoved to make life easier. He had J8o though.

    He was just on a heater. Later on though I seen him make the same play on q22 with Q7 and lose to kk. So I'm still happy with my play.

    I just didn't think I can call down on this board texture. Figured money was going in at some point.
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    Does the Janda/Berkey-Soto school like a shove for equity denial here?

    Once we decide we're never folding I like a call flop, close-eyes call turn line. As played you have forced villain to have a hand to call you. I expect his flop calling range to be stronger than his turn shoving range.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    eugeniusjr wrote: »
    Does the Janda/Berkey-Soto school like a shove for equity denial here?

    Once we decide we're never folding I like a call flop, close-eyes call turn line. As played you have forced villain to have a hand to call you. I expect his flop calling range to be stronger than his turn shoving range.

    By my shoving the flop his odds are not terrible, there are just not a lot of great turn cards for me. If he is calling wide I do not mind my shove.

    He is calling about 143 to win 293.
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    I'm not sure that my idea is better, given that half the deck is scary for your hand. And given that half the deck scares him too.


    That flop overbet makes me think he wants a fold on the flop. Most players usually are bluffing when they want a fold. If he's bluffing and you shove, you get called by most of his equity, and fold all of his bluffs. If he is bluffing a lot, you fold out the small equity his bluffs have and the rest of his hands have a break-even call.

    Maybe he shuts down on the turn with his bluffs and this is the most you'd get anyway.

    Maybe the scary turn cards allow him to continue his bluff and are actually good for you because they allow him to think he can make you fold with a pot-sized bet.


    Someday I hope to think clearly about poker. :)
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 986 ✭✭✭✭
    This is read based. If he is playing 100% of hands....how often does he donk out....if its the first time it means a lot more. How often has he raises pre/post....

    I mean he is the fish....he given you lots of data points.... You have not mentioned that he has ever been aggressive, that he has ever donked big or small...

    If this is the first big donk bet.....I'm assuming big draws and 2 pair + hands...and against that you have less the 40% equity...

    I think you can find a fold...
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Eazzy wrote: »
    This is read based. If he is playing 100% of hands....how often does he donk out....if its the first time it means a lot more. How often has he raises pre/post....

    I mean he is the fish....he given you lots of data points.... You have not mentioned that he has ever been aggressive, that he has ever donked big or small...

    If this is the first big donk bet.....I'm assuming big draws and 2 pair + hands...and against that you have less the 40% equity...

    I think you can find a fold...

    my read in real time was that he was strong. I also thought he may have a combo draw because I did not hold the :Kd which kind of sucked because I do not have any back door equity. He was not over betting over the small sample. Lots of little stabs and bets, but no over bets.

    Felt too weak to go with my read and fold on the flop as I think I would just be getting exploited.

    Feels like shoving is over playing my hand.

    Feels like calling is playing with scared money.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,159 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2017
    I don't like the shove here. For the reason @Eazzy said: did V donkbet - and over donkbet - before?
    Donkbetting is a move some fish / bad player will trigger mostly with nut FD or TP (with or without kicker). But for what I've seen so far, it was always a 60-100% pot donket.
    Bet sizing is an important information. It looks like our bingo player hit it this time (T9, 88, 77, JJ, 87, J7, J8) - and I don't expect V to be balance / have enough bluff/draws in his over donkbet.

    So except if "bingo player" V has been shown to over donkbet with 1 pair before, I may find a snug fold. (Which hurts only my ego, as other people don't know what I did fold)


    PS/Edit: if we are way deeper, I may take another line and call or raise. But with this stack size, any action lead to all-in. Which I'm no fan of against an overdonkbet.

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