Folding with KK on wet board facing a min-raise?

LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 601 ✭✭✭
PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 107.5 BB (VPIP: 14.39, PFR: 10.61, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 135)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.45, PFR: 15.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 124)
Hero (CO): 101.5 BB
BTN: 38.5 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
SB: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 16.49, PFR: 12.37, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 99)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :Kc:Kh

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, BTN calls 3.5 BB, fold, BB calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (11 BB, 3 players) :6h:7h:TC:
BB checks, Hero bets 7.5 BB, BTN raises to 15 BB, fold, Hero ?

On the flop I figured there are tons of weaker hands (Tx, flush draws, hands like 78, etc.) which will call my bet and I want to make them pay for realizing their draws. Am I correct in thinking that?

Awkward spot cause suddenly I feel like I'm far behind, in the best case facing a flush draw without a pair (like QJh or AJh). These aren't really the types of spots where you'd want to get it in with KK right? Folding is tight but it seems like all the money is going to go in anyway given his stack size. And at these stakes getting min-raised on such a flop... should I fold here?

Comments

  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    How often do you need to be correct here (in spots like this I calculate it as if villain shoved and we have to call an all-in)? (%)

    What is the strongest range of hands he has where you still have that amount of equity?

    Do you estimate his range to be stronger or weaker than that line-in-the-sand range?
  • ZazouZazou Red Chipper Posts: 93 ✭✭
    I'd need a very specific read to ever not shove here. There are just too many hands he might think are good that you beat, lots of Tx, 99, possibly JJ, QQ. You really think he wouldn't raise here with ATo? Vs. what so far looks just like your everyday cbet? Nah :)
    Luuk v wrote:
    These aren't really the types of spots where you'd want to get it in with KK right?
    Stack depth alone makes this a spot for me to always want to get it in with KK. Short stackers don't have the luxury of "calling & reevaluating later", they basically have go nuts with every piece they catch, and your hand is wayyy too strong vs. that to consider folding, imo.
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    Zazou H wrote: »
    I'd need a very specific read to ever not shove here. There are just too many hands he might think are good that you beat, lots of Tx, 99, possibly JJ, QQ. You really think he wouldn't raise here with ATo? Vs. what so far looks just like your everyday cbet? Nah :)
    Luuk v wrote:
    These aren't really the types of spots where you'd want to get it in with KK right?
    Stack depth alone makes this a spot for me to always want to get it in with KK. Short stackers don't have the luxury of "calling & reevaluating later", they basically have go nuts with every piece they catch, and your hand is wayyy too strong vs. that to consider folding, imo.

    agreed. not folding here. shove is the correct option
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 601 ✭✭✭
    edited July 2017
    eugeniusjr wrote: »
    How often do you need to be correct here (in spots like this I calculate it as if villain shoved and we have to call an all-in)? (%)

    What is the strongest range of hands he has where you still have that amount of equity?

    Do you estimate his range to be stronger or weaker than that line-in-the-sand range?

    OK, good questions. I have to be right 34% of the time.

    c5hjdy8l652e.png

    This is the range I put him on. Maybe some more of these 9h5h are missing from this but this should be enough for a ballpark approximation I reckon. I got 28.5% against this range, but it's easy to exceed 34% if I include 88 and 99 which I can assume with safety are (sometimes) in there. Not to mention his nonsuited Tx hands which are a ton of combos. So yeah, surely it's +EV to shove here like everyone's saying. Thanks guys!
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,145 ✭✭✭✭
    If he has 98o in his range, he also has T9o and 78o here and with a 30% VPIP, I'd include those.
  • DeezNutsDeezNuts Red Chipper Posts: 122 ✭✭
    edited July 2017
    Ninjah wrote: »
    If he has 98o in his range, he also has T9o and 78o here and with a 30% VPIP, I'd include those.

    I would say the VPIP is not relevant because of super small sample size. But I do agree that V range may be a bit wider
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,145 ✭✭✭✭
    DeezNuts wrote: »
    Ninjah wrote: »
    If he has 98o in his range, he also has T9o and 78o here and with a 30% VPIP, I'd include those.

    I would say the VPIP is not relevant because of super small sample size. But I do agree that V range may be a bit wider

    You're right, I just quickly glanced at the stats. However including the two other hands still stands if OP wants to give him 98o.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ship it against short stacks
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 601 ✭✭✭
    Ninjah wrote: »
    DeezNuts wrote: »
    Ninjah wrote: »
    If he has 98o in his range, he also has T9o and 78o here and with a 30% VPIP, I'd include those.

    I would say the VPIP is not relevant because of super small sample size. But I do agree that V range may be a bit wider

    You're right, I just quickly glanced at the stats. However including the two other hands still stands if OP wants to give him 98o.

    Yeah I feel ya.


    Austin wrote: »
    Ship it against short stacks

    That simple. Thanks!

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